KPIT / Sun Sep 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Sep 13 · 07:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

82%

62%

24%

21%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 52.6¢Risks 52.65u

ICONNO 47.4¢Risks 47.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +47.35u · ICON −47.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	65.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	—	—	—	40.7%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	23.8%	—	—	—	—	35.6%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	57.0%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	0.0%	—	—	59.0%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	53.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	—	—	—	54.4%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	80.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	—	—	—	53.9%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	75.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	62.6%	—	86.1%	—	—	63.3%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	24.6%	3.9%	70.2%	2.2%	—	57.0%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	78.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	35.7%	81.1%	49.3%	—	69.0%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	77.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	43.9%	—	72.4%	61.3%	—	57.6%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	46.9%	—	63.0%	—	—	1.0%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	10.0%	80.0%	54.0%	—	58.7%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	53.3%	7.0%	62.1%	—	—	8.5%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	64.7%	47.5%	34.5%	38.5%	—	60.7%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	58.5%	62.6%	—	—	56.8%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	57.0%	69.3%	75.2%	37.1%	—	57.0%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	52.7%	81.6%	—	—	44.6%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	50.9%	59.1%	81.6%	63.6%	—	56.4%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	69.1%	78.3%	—	—	44.3%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	40.4%	57.7%	59.6%	47.1%	—	52.9%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	54.0%	38.2%	47.0%	—	—	52.0%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	38.8%	46.9%	58.2%	24.3%	56.1%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	53.2%	63.5%	—	—	50.0%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	56.5%	53.3%	20.6%	55.5%	4.5%	51.1%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	56.7%	10.7%	0.2%	—	46.6%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	38.5%	53.5%	41.9%	—	44.2%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	46.4%	33.6%	57.2%	42.8%	—	44.0%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	35.4%	64.6%	41.3%	0.0%	51.2%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	53.9%	32.5%	43.6%	41.0%	—	46.1%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	31.9%	39.4%	51.3%	16.5%	47.3%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	36.3%	76.8%	50.0%	—	40.3%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	35.8%	70.7%	41.4%	31.8%	50.0%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	35.2%	32.5%	36.6%	—	54.5%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	60.9%	40.6%	62.4%	60.9%	34.6%	56.3%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	46.7%	75.9%	73.3%	—	64.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	84%	85.6°F	4.1°F	2026-09-12 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	82%	84.6°F	3.4°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	82.0°F	1.1°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	62%	82.6°F	3.8°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	57%	82.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-13 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	80.0°F	2.1°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
ICON	21%	78.7°F	3.5°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260913-TMAX-GE82
Opened Sep 07 · 15:36 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 82°F · Sun Sep 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗