KPIT / Sun Sep 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Sep 13 · 07:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

82%

62%

24%

21%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 52.6¢Risks 52.65u

ICONNO 47.4¢Risks 47.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +47.35u · ICON −47.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-13T07:07:36+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-07T15:36:54+00:00	88.6%	58.5%	72.0%	74.8%	55.9%
2026-09-07T16:22:02+00:00	88.6%	58.5%	72.0%	74.8%	55.9%
2026-09-07T17:07:08+00:00	88.6%	58.5%	71.2%	74.8%	55.9%
2026-09-07T17:52:13+00:00	88.6%	58.5%	71.2%	74.8%	55.9%
2026-09-07T18:37:18+00:00	88.6%	58.5%	71.2%	74.8%	55.9%
2026-09-07T19:22:22+00:00	88.6%	58.5%	71.2%	74.8%	55.9%
2026-09-07T20:07:30+00:00	73.6%	58.5%	71.2%	60.0%	64.0%
2026-09-07T20:52:35+00:00	73.6%	58.5%	71.2%	60.0%	64.0%
2026-09-07T21:37:40+00:00	73.6%	58.5%	71.2%	60.0%	64.0%
2026-09-07T22:22:44+00:00	73.6%	58.5%	71.2%	60.0%	64.0%
2026-09-07T23:07:49+00:00	73.6%	58.5%	70.5%	60.0%	64.0%
2026-09-07T23:52:54+00:00	73.6%	58.5%	70.5%	60.0%	64.0%
2026-09-08T00:37:59+00:00	73.6%	58.5%	70.5%	60.0%	64.0%
2026-09-08T01:23:04+00:00	76.5%	58.5%	70.5%	60.0%	64.0%
2026-09-08T02:08:09+00:00	76.5%	58.5%	70.5%	60.0%	64.0%
2026-09-08T02:53:14+00:00	76.5%	58.5%	70.5%	60.0%	64.0%
2026-09-08T03:38:20+00:00	76.5%	58.5%	70.5%	58.3%	64.0%
2026-09-08T04:23:28+00:00	76.5%	58.5%	70.5%	58.3%	64.0%
2026-09-08T05:08:32+00:00	76.5%	58.5%	77.0%	58.3%	64.0%
2026-09-08T05:53:37+00:00	76.5%	58.5%	77.0%	58.3%	64.0%
2026-09-08T06:38:42+00:00	76.5%	58.5%	77.0%	58.3%	64.0%
2026-09-08T07:23:47+00:00	58.6%	58.5%	77.0%	56.8%	70.0%
2026-09-08T08:08:57+00:00	58.6%	58.5%	77.0%	56.8%	70.0%
2026-09-08T08:54:01+00:00	58.6%	58.5%	77.0%	56.8%	70.0%
2026-09-08T09:39:07+00:00	58.6%	58.5%	77.0%	56.8%	70.0%
2026-09-08T10:24:10+00:00	58.6%	50.0%	77.0%	56.8%	70.0%
2026-09-08T11:09:15+00:00	58.6%	50.0%	76.6%	56.8%	70.0%
2026-09-08T11:54:21+00:00	58.6%	50.0%	76.6%	56.8%	70.0%
2026-09-08T12:39:25+00:00	58.6%	50.0%	76.6%	56.8%	70.0%
2026-09-08T13:24:29+00:00	81.4%	50.0%	76.6%	56.8%	70.0%
2026-09-08T14:09:34+00:00	81.5%	50.0%	76.6%	56.8%	70.0%
2026-09-08T14:54:39+00:00	81.5%	48.1%	76.6%	56.8%	70.0%
2026-09-08T15:39:46+00:00	81.5%	48.1%	76.6%	56.8%	70.0%
2026-09-08T15:49:08+00:00	81.5%	48.1%	76.6%	56.8%	70.0%
2026-09-08T16:00:06+00:00	81.5%	48.1%	76.6%	56.8%	70.0%
2026-09-08T16:45:14+00:00	81.5%	48.1%	76.6%	56.8%	70.0%
2026-09-08T17:06:41+00:00	81.5%	48.1%	76.6%	56.8%	70.0%
2026-09-08T17:20:26+00:00	81.5%	48.1%	76.6%	56.8%	70.0%
2026-09-08T18:05:34+00:00	81.5%	48.1%	76.6%	56.8%	70.0%
2026-09-08T18:50:38+00:00	81.5%	48.1%	76.6%	56.8%	70.0%
2026-09-08T19:35:43+00:00	88.0%	48.1%	76.6%	76.3%	62.3%
2026-09-08T20:20:49+00:00	88.0%	48.1%	76.6%	76.3%	62.3%
2026-09-08T21:05:54+00:00	88.0%	48.1%	76.6%	76.3%	62.3%
2026-09-08T21:50:58+00:00	88.0%	48.1%	76.6%	76.3%	62.3%
2026-09-08T22:36:04+00:00	88.0%	48.1%	76.6%	76.3%	62.3%
2026-09-08T23:21:09+00:00	88.0%	48.1%	85.1%	76.3%	62.3%
2026-09-09T00:06:14+00:00	88.0%	48.1%	85.1%	76.3%	62.3%
2026-09-09T00:51:21+00:00	88.0%	48.1%	85.1%	76.3%	62.3%
2026-09-09T01:36:26+00:00	84.5%	48.1%	85.1%	76.3%	62.3%
2026-09-09T02:21:31+00:00	84.5%	48.1%	85.1%	76.3%	62.3%
2026-09-09T03:06:37+00:00	84.5%	48.1%	85.1%	76.3%	62.3%
2026-09-09T03:51:46+00:00	84.5%	48.1%	85.1%	76.3%	62.3%
2026-09-09T04:36:50+00:00	84.5%	48.1%	85.1%	76.3%	62.3%
2026-09-09T05:21:55+00:00	84.5%	48.1%	83.4%	76.3%	62.3%
2026-09-09T06:07:01+00:00	84.5%	48.1%	83.4%	76.3%	62.3%
2026-09-09T06:52:06+00:00	84.5%	48.1%	83.4%	76.3%	62.3%
2026-09-09T07:37:14+00:00	85.3%	48.1%	83.4%	72.9%	77.5%
2026-09-09T08:22:29+00:00	85.3%	48.1%	83.4%	72.9%	77.5%
2026-09-09T09:07:33+00:00	85.3%	48.1%	83.4%	72.9%	77.5%
2026-09-09T09:52:37+00:00	85.3%	48.1%	83.4%	72.9%	77.5%
2026-09-09T10:37:41+00:00	85.3%	48.1%	83.4%	72.9%	77.5%
2026-09-09T11:22:46+00:00	85.3%	48.1%	84.3%	72.9%	77.5%
2026-09-09T12:07:54+00:00	85.3%	48.1%	84.3%	72.9%	77.5%
2026-09-09T12:52:58+00:00	85.3%	48.1%	84.3%	72.9%	77.5%
2026-09-09T13:38:03+00:00	74.9%	48.1%	84.3%	72.9%	77.5%
2026-09-09T14:23:18+00:00	75.0%	48.1%	84.3%	72.9%	77.4%
2026-09-09T15:08:24+00:00	75.0%	—	84.3%	72.9%	77.4%
2026-09-09T15:53:33+00:00	75.0%	—	84.3%	72.9%	77.4%
2026-09-09T16:38:38+00:00	75.0%	—	84.3%	72.9%	68.2%
2026-09-09T17:23:44+00:00	75.0%	—	78.8%	72.9%	68.2%
2026-09-09T18:08:51+00:00	75.0%	—	78.8%	72.9%	68.2%
2026-09-09T18:53:56+00:00	75.0%	—	78.8%	72.9%	68.2%
2026-09-09T19:39:02+00:00	81.7%	—	78.8%	73.5%	68.2%
2026-09-09T20:24:12+00:00	81.7%	—	78.8%	73.5%	68.2%
2026-09-09T21:09:17+00:00	81.7%	—	78.8%	73.5%	68.2%
2026-09-09T21:54:22+00:00	81.7%	—	78.8%	73.5%	68.2%
2026-09-09T22:39:30+00:00	81.7%	—	78.8%	73.5%	68.2%
2026-09-09T23:24:35+00:00	81.7%	—	81.6%	73.5%	68.2%
2026-09-10T00:09:40+00:00	81.7%	—	81.6%	73.5%	68.2%
2026-09-10T00:54:47+00:00	81.7%	—	81.6%	73.5%	68.2%
2026-09-10T01:39:53+00:00	70.1%	—	81.6%	73.5%	68.2%
2026-09-10T02:25:00+00:00	70.1%	31.9%	81.6%	73.5%	68.2%
2026-09-10T03:10:08+00:00	70.1%	31.9%	81.6%	73.5%	68.2%
2026-09-10T03:55:18+00:00	70.1%	31.9%	81.6%	73.5%	68.2%
2026-09-10T04:40:23+00:00	70.1%	31.9%	81.6%	73.5%	61.2%
2026-09-10T05:25:28+00:00	70.1%	31.9%	78.8%	73.5%	61.2%
2026-09-10T06:10:35+00:00	70.1%	31.9%	78.8%	73.5%	61.2%
2026-09-10T06:55:40+00:00	70.1%	31.9%	78.8%	73.5%	61.2%
2026-09-10T07:40:46+00:00	76.2%	31.9%	78.8%	65.4%	61.2%
2026-09-10T08:26:00+00:00	76.2%	31.9%	78.8%	65.4%	61.2%
2026-09-10T09:11:05+00:00	76.2%	31.9%	78.8%	65.4%	61.2%
2026-09-10T09:56:09+00:00	76.2%	31.9%	78.8%	65.4%	61.2%
2026-09-10T10:41:13+00:00	76.2%	31.9%	78.8%	65.4%	61.2%
2026-09-10T11:26:19+00:00	76.2%	28.6%	82.4%	65.4%	61.2%
2026-09-10T12:11:26+00:00	76.2%	28.6%	82.4%	65.4%	61.2%
2026-09-10T12:56:31+00:00	76.2%	28.6%	82.4%	65.4%	61.2%
2026-09-10T13:41:35+00:00	84.8%	28.6%	82.4%	65.4%	61.2%
2026-09-10T14:26:53+00:00	84.8%	28.7%	82.5%	65.4%	61.2%
2026-09-10T15:12:00+00:00	84.8%	28.7%	82.5%	65.4%	61.2%
2026-09-10T15:57:10+00:00	84.8%	28.7%	82.5%	65.4%	61.2%
2026-09-10T16:42:14+00:00	84.8%	28.7%	82.5%	65.4%	41.8%
2026-09-10T17:27:20+00:00	84.8%	28.7%	85.8%	65.4%	41.8%
2026-09-10T18:12:27+00:00	84.8%	28.7%	85.8%	65.4%	41.8%
2026-09-10T18:57:33+00:00	84.8%	28.7%	85.8%	65.4%	41.8%
2026-09-10T19:42:38+00:00	89.1%	28.7%	85.8%	75.2%	41.8%
2026-09-10T20:27:44+00:00	89.1%	28.7%	85.8%	75.2%	41.8%
2026-09-10T21:12:49+00:00	89.1%	28.7%	85.8%	75.2%	41.8%
2026-09-10T21:57:54+00:00	89.1%	28.7%	85.8%	75.2%	41.8%
2026-09-10T22:42:58+00:00	89.1%	28.7%	85.8%	75.2%	41.8%
2026-09-10T23:28:02+00:00	89.1%	28.7%	87.0%	75.2%	41.8%
2026-09-11T00:13:08+00:00	89.1%	28.7%	87.0%	75.2%	41.8%
2026-09-11T00:58:15+00:00	89.1%	30.3%	87.0%	75.2%	41.8%
2026-09-11T01:43:21+00:00	87.3%	24.0%	87.0%	75.2%	41.8%
2026-09-11T02:28:27+00:00	87.3%	24.0%	87.0%	75.2%	41.8%
2026-09-11T03:13:33+00:00	87.3%	24.0%	87.0%	75.2%	41.8%
2026-09-11T03:58:44+00:00	87.3%	24.0%	87.0%	75.2%	41.8%
2026-09-11T04:43:49+00:00	87.3%	24.0%	87.0%	75.2%	46.6%
2026-09-11T05:28:54+00:00	87.3%	24.0%	88.1%	75.2%	46.6%
2026-09-11T06:14:03+00:00	87.3%	24.0%	88.1%	75.2%	46.6%
2026-09-11T06:59:07+00:00	87.3%	24.0%	88.1%	75.2%	46.6%
2026-09-11T07:44:14+00:00	86.9%	24.0%	88.1%	63.1%	46.6%
2026-09-11T08:29:33+00:00	86.9%	24.0%	88.1%	63.1%	46.6%
2026-09-11T09:14:39+00:00	86.9%	24.0%	88.1%	63.1%	46.6%
2026-09-11T09:59:44+00:00	86.9%	24.0%	88.1%	63.1%	46.6%
2026-09-11T10:44:49+00:00	86.9%	24.0%	88.1%	63.1%	46.6%
2026-09-11T11:29:54+00:00	86.9%	19.2%	86.1%	63.1%	46.6%
2026-09-11T12:15:02+00:00	86.9%	19.2%	86.1%	63.1%	46.6%
2026-09-11T13:00:08+00:00	86.9%	19.2%	86.1%	63.1%	46.6%
2026-09-11T13:45:21+00:00	84.2%	19.2%	86.1%	63.1%	46.6%
2026-09-11T14:30:49+00:00	84.3%	25.7%	86.2%	63.2%	47.7%
2026-09-12T03:17:40+00:00	81.9%	19.4%	84.2%	55.7%	33.5%
2026-09-12T04:02:54+00:00	81.9%	19.4%	84.2%	55.7%	33.5%
2026-09-12T04:47:59+00:00	81.9%	19.4%	84.2%	55.7%	33.5%
2026-09-12T05:33:03+00:00	81.9%	19.4%	82.8%	55.7%	33.5%
2026-09-12T06:18:12+00:00	81.9%	19.4%	82.8%	55.7%	33.5%
2026-09-12T07:03:17+00:00	81.9%	19.4%	82.8%	55.7%	33.5%
2026-09-12T07:48:24+00:00	87.1%	19.4%	82.8%	62.5%	22.3%
2026-09-12T08:33:44+00:00	87.1%	19.4%	82.8%	62.5%	22.3%
2026-09-12T09:18:48+00:00	87.1%	19.4%	82.8%	62.5%	22.3%
2026-09-12T10:03:54+00:00	87.1%	19.4%	82.8%	62.5%	22.3%
2026-09-12T10:48:58+00:00	87.1%	19.4%	82.8%	62.5%	22.3%
2026-09-12T11:34:04+00:00	87.1%	20.5%	84.3%	62.5%	22.3%
2026-09-12T12:19:13+00:00	87.1%	20.5%	84.3%	62.5%	22.3%
2026-09-12T13:04:21+00:00	87.1%	20.5%	84.3%	62.5%	22.3%
2026-09-12T13:49:26+00:00	85.5%	20.5%	84.3%	62.5%	22.3%
2026-09-12T14:34:57+00:00	85.6%	20.5%	84.3%	59.4%	23.2%
2026-09-13T04:07:03+00:00	83.9%	24.0%	82.0%	61.5%	21.4%
2026-09-13T04:52:17+00:00	83.9%	24.0%	82.0%	61.5%	21.4%
2026-09-13T05:37:22+00:00	83.9%	24.0%	82.0%	61.5%	21.4%
2026-09-13T06:22:31+00:00	83.9%	24.0%	82.0%	61.5%	21.4%
2026-09-13T07:07:36+00:00	83.9%	24.0%	82.0%	61.5%	21.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	84%	85.6°F	4.1°F	2026-09-12 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	82%	84.6°F	3.4°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	82.0°F	1.1°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	62%	82.6°F	3.8°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	57%	82.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-13 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	80.0°F	2.1°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
ICON	21%	78.7°F	3.5°F	2026-09-12 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260913-TMAX-GE82
Opened Sep 07 · 15:36 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 82°F · Sun Sep 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗