KPIT / Tue Sep 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Sep 15 · 07:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

64%

38%

31%

26%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 48.9¢Risks 48.85u

WN2NO 51.2¢Risks 51.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +51.15u · WN2 −51.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—	33.4%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	82.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	19.6%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	25.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	55.7%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	90.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	4.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	—	—	—	40.4%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	84.3%	—	15.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	31.3%	—	—	70.4%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	90.3%	—	42.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	80.2%	—	3.8%	—	—	75.4%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	92.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	63.9%	—	—	81.1%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	69.2%	—	94.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	89.5%	34.9%	—	89.8%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	89.6%	—	95.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	74.6%	92.9%	92.1%	89.0%	—	90.0%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	96.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	88.6%	97.2%	92.7%	—	90.3%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	97.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	60.3%	98.5%	71.2%	—	76.4%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	1.4%	98.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	63.9%	90.3%	97.2%	93.9%	27.9%	82.7%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	68.2%	86.8%	98.2%	—	—	74.0%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	51.7%	92.0%	60.4%	75.2%	—	50.9%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	42.9%	42.0%	21.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	59.1%	20.9%	71.8%	—	49.1%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	37.9%	76.2%	36.1%	—	—	25.3%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	73.7%	33.9%	59.6%	—	35.7%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	60.9%	42.0%	—	—	46.0%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	58.2%	63.1%	41.8%	50.0%	0.0%	61.2%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	64.5%	45.8%	—	—	57.4%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	44.5%	32.1%	48.9%	61.8%	—	50.0%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	53.4%	36.7%	43.3%	0.0%	—	59.0%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	34.1%	0.0%	55.8%	34.1%	53.5%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	40.5%	51.2%	57.2%	—	41.6%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	36.5%	40.1%	45.0%	51.2%	0.0%	40.1%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	47.4%	39.8%	57.7%	—	44.9%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	38.1%	54.0%	51.3%	50.0%	29.5%	48.7%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	35.0%	71.2%	48.6%	52.8%	—	45.8%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	72.0%	48.5%	61.4%	33.1%	55.8%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	27.2%	60.5%	54.5%	56.0%	—	48.5%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	57.9%	65.4%	60.9%	48.4%	51.6%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	73.3%	71.9%	63.0%	—	56.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	72%	81.9°F	4.1°F	2026-09-14 18:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	80.0°F	1.1°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	64%	80.9°F	3.8°F	2026-09-14 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	57%	80.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-15 03:00	Pending
ICON	38%	78.4°F	3.5°F	2026-09-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	31%	78.5°F	2.0°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	26%	77.3°F	3.4°F	2026-09-14 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260915-TMAX-GE80
Opened Sep 12 · 03:17 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 80°F · Tue Sep 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗