KPIT / Tue Sep 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Sep 15 · 07:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

64%

38%

31%

26%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 48.9¢Risks 48.85u

WN2NO 51.2¢Risks 51.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +51.15u · WN2 −51.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-15T07:16:02+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-12T03:17:41+00:00	68.7%	41.3%	64.1%	52.4%	68.9%
2026-09-12T04:02:54+00:00	68.7%	41.3%	64.1%	52.4%	68.9%
2026-09-12T04:47:59+00:00	68.7%	41.3%	64.1%	52.4%	68.9%
2026-09-12T05:33:03+00:00	68.7%	41.3%	43.9%	52.4%	68.9%
2026-09-12T06:18:12+00:00	68.7%	41.3%	43.9%	52.4%	68.9%
2026-09-12T07:03:17+00:00	68.7%	41.3%	43.9%	52.4%	68.9%
2026-09-12T07:48:24+00:00	77.0%	41.3%	43.9%	49.1%	78.0%
2026-09-12T08:33:44+00:00	77.0%	41.3%	43.9%	49.1%	78.0%
2026-09-12T09:18:48+00:00	77.0%	41.3%	43.9%	49.1%	78.0%
2026-09-12T10:03:54+00:00	77.0%	41.3%	43.9%	49.1%	78.0%
2026-09-12T10:48:58+00:00	77.0%	41.3%	43.9%	49.1%	78.0%
2026-09-12T11:34:04+00:00	77.0%	18.0%	40.2%	49.1%	78.0%
2026-09-12T12:19:13+00:00	77.0%	18.0%	40.2%	49.1%	78.0%
2026-09-12T13:04:21+00:00	77.0%	18.0%	40.2%	49.1%	78.0%
2026-09-12T13:49:26+00:00	75.6%	18.0%	40.2%	49.1%	78.0%
2026-09-12T14:34:57+00:00	75.7%	18.1%	40.2%	49.4%	78.0%
2026-09-12T15:20:07+00:00	75.7%	21.9%	40.2%	49.1%	78.0%
2026-09-12T16:05:20+00:00	75.7%	21.9%	40.2%	49.1%	78.0%
2026-09-12T16:50:26+00:00	75.7%	21.9%	40.2%	49.1%	78.0%
2026-09-12T17:35:31+00:00	75.7%	21.9%	37.1%	49.1%	78.0%
2026-09-12T18:20:40+00:00	75.7%	21.9%	37.1%	49.1%	78.0%
2026-09-12T19:05:45+00:00	75.7%	21.9%	37.1%	49.1%	78.0%
2026-09-12T19:50:50+00:00	83.9%	21.9%	37.1%	49.1%	66.9%
2026-09-12T20:35:56+00:00	83.9%	21.9%	37.1%	49.1%	66.9%
2026-09-12T21:21:01+00:00	83.9%	21.9%	37.1%	49.1%	66.9%
2026-09-12T22:06:07+00:00	83.9%	21.9%	37.1%	49.1%	66.9%
2026-09-12T22:51:12+00:00	83.9%	21.9%	37.1%	67.0%	66.9%
2026-09-12T23:36:18+00:00	83.9%	21.9%	41.3%	67.0%	66.9%
2026-09-13T00:21:24+00:00	83.9%	21.9%	41.3%	67.0%	66.9%
2026-09-13T01:06:31+00:00	83.9%	21.9%	41.3%	67.0%	66.9%
2026-09-13T01:51:41+00:00	80.3%	21.9%	41.3%	67.0%	66.9%
2026-09-13T02:36:51+00:00	80.3%	21.9%	41.3%	67.0%	66.9%
2026-09-13T03:21:56+00:00	80.3%	21.9%	41.3%	67.0%	66.9%
2026-09-13T04:07:03+00:00	80.3%	21.9%	41.3%	67.0%	66.9%
2026-09-13T04:52:17+00:00	80.3%	21.9%	41.3%	67.0%	66.9%
2026-09-13T05:37:22+00:00	80.3%	21.9%	41.3%	67.0%	66.9%
2026-09-13T06:22:31+00:00	80.3%	21.9%	41.3%	67.0%	66.9%
2026-09-13T07:07:36+00:00	80.3%	21.9%	41.3%	67.0%	66.9%
2026-09-13T07:52:43+00:00	77.4%	21.9%	41.3%	65.0%	26.6%
2026-09-13T08:38:10+00:00	77.4%	21.9%	41.3%	65.0%	26.6%
2026-09-13T09:23:16+00:00	77.4%	21.9%	41.3%	65.0%	26.6%
2026-09-13T10:08:21+00:00	77.4%	21.9%	41.3%	65.0%	26.6%
2026-09-13T10:53:27+00:00	77.4%	32.6%	28.3%	65.0%	26.6%
2026-09-13T11:38:37+00:00	77.4%	32.6%	28.3%	65.0%	26.6%
2026-09-13T12:23:43+00:00	77.4%	32.6%	28.3%	65.0%	26.6%
2026-09-13T13:08:48+00:00	77.4%	32.6%	28.3%	65.0%	26.6%
2026-09-13T13:53:53+00:00	82.1%	32.7%	28.4%	65.0%	26.7%
2026-09-13T14:39:24+00:00	82.1%	32.7%	28.4%	65.0%	26.7%
2026-09-13T15:24:29+00:00	82.1%	37.6%	28.4%	65.0%	26.7%
2026-09-13T16:09:35+00:00	82.1%	37.6%	28.4%	65.0%	26.7%
2026-09-13T16:54:40+00:00	82.1%	37.6%	31.4%	65.0%	26.7%
2026-09-13T17:39:49+00:00	82.1%	37.6%	31.4%	65.0%	26.7%
2026-09-13T18:24:58+00:00	82.1%	37.6%	31.4%	65.0%	26.7%
2026-09-13T19:10:03+00:00	82.1%	37.6%	31.4%	65.0%	26.7%
2026-09-13T19:55:07+00:00	73.0%	37.6%	31.4%	65.9%	26.7%
2026-09-13T20:40:14+00:00	73.0%	37.6%	31.4%	65.9%	26.7%
2026-09-13T21:25:18+00:00	73.0%	37.6%	31.4%	65.9%	26.7%
2026-09-13T22:10:23+00:00	73.0%	37.6%	31.4%	65.9%	26.7%
2026-09-13T22:55:27+00:00	73.0%	37.6%	30.4%	65.9%	26.7%
2026-09-13T23:40:33+00:00	73.0%	37.7%	30.4%	65.9%	26.7%
2026-09-14T00:25:38+00:00	73.0%	37.7%	30.4%	65.9%	26.7%
2026-09-14T01:10:45+00:00	73.0%	37.7%	30.4%	65.9%	26.7%
2026-09-14T01:55:50+00:00	68.9%	37.7%	30.4%	66.3%	26.7%
2026-09-14T02:40:55+00:00	68.9%	37.7%	30.4%	66.3%	26.7%
2026-09-14T03:26:01+00:00	68.9%	37.7%	30.4%	66.3%	26.7%
2026-09-14T04:11:06+00:00	68.9%	37.7%	30.4%	65.9%	26.7%
2026-09-14T04:56:20+00:00	68.9%	37.7%	28.4%	65.9%	26.7%
2026-09-14T05:41:26+00:00	68.9%	37.7%	28.4%	65.9%	26.7%
2026-09-14T06:26:33+00:00	68.9%	37.7%	28.4%	65.9%	26.7%
2026-09-14T07:11:37+00:00	68.9%	37.7%	28.4%	65.9%	26.7%
2026-09-14T07:56:44+00:00	71.9%	37.7%	28.4%	59.4%	26.8%
2026-09-14T08:42:08+00:00	71.9%	37.7%	28.4%	59.4%	26.8%
2026-09-14T09:27:12+00:00	71.9%	37.7%	28.4%	59.4%	26.8%
2026-09-14T10:12:17+00:00	71.9%	37.7%	28.4%	59.4%	26.8%
2026-09-14T10:57:23+00:00	71.9%	25.0%	28.4%	59.4%	26.8%
2026-09-14T11:42:32+00:00	71.9%	25.0%	28.4%	59.4%	26.8%
2026-09-14T12:27:37+00:00	71.9%	25.0%	28.4%	59.4%	26.8%
2026-09-14T13:12:42+00:00	71.9%	25.0%	28.4%	59.4%	26.8%
2026-09-14T13:57:47+00:00	71.9%	25.1%	28.4%	59.4%	26.8%
2026-09-14T14:43:28+00:00	71.9%	25.1%	28.4%	59.4%	26.8%
2026-09-14T15:28:35+00:00	71.9%	31.0%	28.4%	59.4%	26.8%
2026-09-14T16:13:49+00:00	71.9%	31.0%	28.4%	59.4%	26.8%
2026-09-14T16:58:55+00:00	71.9%	31.0%	23.9%	59.4%	26.8%
2026-09-14T17:44:01+00:00	71.9%	31.0%	23.9%	59.4%	26.8%
2026-09-14T18:29:09+00:00	71.9%	31.0%	23.9%	59.4%	26.8%
2026-09-14T19:14:14+00:00	71.9%	31.0%	23.9%	59.4%	26.8%
2026-09-14T19:59:19+00:00	74.3%	31.0%	23.9%	64.5%	37.8%
2026-09-14T20:44:25+00:00	74.3%	31.0%	23.9%	64.5%	37.8%
2026-09-14T21:29:30+00:00	74.3%	31.0%	23.9%	64.5%	37.8%
2026-09-14T22:14:35+00:00	74.3%	31.0%	23.9%	64.5%	37.8%
2026-09-14T22:59:40+00:00	74.3%	31.0%	24.9%	64.5%	37.8%
2026-09-14T23:44:48+00:00	74.3%	31.0%	24.9%	64.5%	37.8%
2026-09-15T00:29:55+00:00	74.3%	31.0%	24.9%	64.5%	37.8%
2026-09-15T01:15:03+00:00	74.3%	31.0%	24.9%	64.5%	37.8%
2026-09-15T02:00:08+00:00	71.9%	31.0%	24.9%	64.9%	37.8%
2026-09-15T02:45:13+00:00	71.9%	31.1%	24.9%	64.5%	37.8%
2026-09-15T03:30:20+00:00	71.9%	31.1%	24.9%	64.5%	37.8%
2026-09-15T04:15:38+00:00	71.9%	31.1%	24.9%	64.5%	37.8%
2026-09-15T05:00:43+00:00	71.9%	31.1%	25.8%	64.5%	37.8%
2026-09-15T05:45:49+00:00	71.9%	31.1%	25.8%	64.5%	37.8%
2026-09-15T06:30:58+00:00	71.9%	31.1%	25.8%	64.5%	37.8%
2026-09-15T07:16:02+00:00	71.9%	31.1%	25.8%	64.5%	37.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	72%	81.9°F	4.1°F	2026-09-14 18:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	80.0°F	1.1°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	64%	80.9°F	3.8°F	2026-09-14 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	57%	80.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-15 03:00	Pending
ICON	38%	78.4°F	3.5°F	2026-09-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	31%	78.5°F	2.0°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	26%	77.3°F	3.4°F	2026-09-14 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260915-TMAX-GE80
Opened Sep 12 · 03:17 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 80°F · Tue Sep 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗