KPIT / Tue Sep 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 85°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 14 · 10:12 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

26%

14%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 13.5¢Risks 13.50u

EPSNO 86.5¢Risks 86.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +86.50u · EPS −86.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	—	—	—	13.6%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	59.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	—	—	—	11.9%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	72.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	60.4%	—	—	—	—	22.7%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	—	—	—	15.8%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	3.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	10.1%	—	—	40.1%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	69.0%	—	16.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	0.5%	—	—	44.8%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	30.9%	—	73.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	31.1%	—	—	51.3%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	76.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	64.4%	10.2%	—	65.1%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	64.0%	—	79.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	39.9%	70.9%	69.0%	62.3%	—	64.3%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	80.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	23.4%	59.8%	83.1%	69.1%	—	63.5%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	83.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	23.0%	88.1%	33.0%	—	39.0%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	15.3%	0.1%	86.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	24.5%	59.9%	80.5%	69.2%	5.1%	45.8%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	51.7%	84.8%	—	—	33.4%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	62.1%	20.2%	33.8%	—	14.1%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	9.2%	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	17.8%	17.8%	2.5%	28.2%	—	11.9%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	31.8%	6.1%	—	—	3.2%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	27.9%	5.1%	16.5%	—	5.6%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	8.0%	16.4%	7.3%	—	—	8.8%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	13.9%	17.0%	6.7%	9.8%	0.0%	15.7%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	10.1%	16.9%	7.6%	—	—	12.7%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	3.3%	8.1%	14.3%	—	8.5%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	4.0%	5.7%	0.0%	—	11.8%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	3.1%	0.0%	9.4%	3.1%	8.5%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	4.0%	7.0%	9.2%	—	4.3%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	3.5%	4.6%	6.3%	0.0%	3.5%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	4.6%	3.0%	7.7%	—	4.0%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	5.7%	5.0%	4.6%	1.3%	4.3%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	11.8%	3.7%	4.7%	—	3.2%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	10.8%	3.2%	6.3%	1.2%	4.7%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	5.1%	3.7%	4.1%	—	2.7%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	3.7%	5.7%	4.4%	2.2%	2.6%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	7.3%	6.8%	4.1%	—	2.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	26%	81.9°F	4.1°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	14%	80.4°F	3.8°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	8%	80.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-14 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	77.5°F	3.5°F	2026-09-13 18:00	Pending
ICON	2%	77.3°F	3.5°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	79.9°F	2.2°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	78.8°F	2.2°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260915-TMAX-GE85
Opened Sep 08 · 07:23 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 85°F+ · Tue Sep 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗