KPIT / Tue Sep 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 85°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 14 · 10:12 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

26%

14%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 13.5¢Risks 13.50u

EPSNO 86.5¢Risks 86.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +86.50u · EPS −86.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-14T10:12:17+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-08T07:23:47+00:00	3.8%	32.1%	38.4%	76.3%	5.6%
2026-09-08T08:08:57+00:00	3.8%	32.1%	38.4%	76.3%	5.6%
2026-09-08T08:54:01+00:00	3.8%	32.1%	38.4%	76.3%	5.6%
2026-09-08T09:39:07+00:00	3.8%	32.1%	38.4%	76.3%	5.6%
2026-09-08T10:24:10+00:00	3.8%	34.2%	38.4%	76.3%	5.6%
2026-09-08T11:09:15+00:00	3.8%	34.2%	6.2%	76.3%	5.6%
2026-09-08T11:54:21+00:00	3.8%	34.2%	6.2%	76.3%	5.6%
2026-09-08T12:39:25+00:00	3.8%	34.2%	6.2%	76.3%	5.6%
2026-09-08T13:24:29+00:00	60.7%	34.2%	6.2%	76.3%	5.6%
2026-09-08T14:09:34+00:00	60.7%	34.2%	6.2%	76.3%	5.6%
2026-09-08T14:54:39+00:00	60.7%	33.0%	6.2%	76.3%	5.6%
2026-09-08T15:39:46+00:00	60.7%	33.0%	6.2%	76.3%	5.6%
2026-09-08T15:49:08+00:00	60.7%	33.0%	6.2%	76.3%	5.6%
2026-09-08T16:00:06+00:00	60.7%	33.0%	6.2%	76.3%	5.6%
2026-09-08T16:45:14+00:00	60.7%	33.0%	6.2%	76.3%	5.6%
2026-09-08T17:06:41+00:00	60.7%	33.0%	15.6%	76.3%	5.6%
2026-09-08T17:20:26+00:00	60.7%	33.0%	15.6%	76.3%	5.6%
2026-09-08T18:05:34+00:00	60.7%	33.0%	15.6%	76.3%	5.6%
2026-09-08T18:50:38+00:00	60.7%	33.0%	15.6%	76.3%	5.6%
2026-09-08T19:35:43+00:00	88.8%	33.0%	15.6%	83.2%	75.9%
2026-09-08T20:20:49+00:00	88.8%	33.0%	15.6%	83.2%	75.9%
2026-09-08T21:05:54+00:00	88.8%	33.0%	15.6%	83.2%	75.9%
2026-09-08T21:50:58+00:00	88.8%	33.0%	15.6%	83.2%	75.9%
2026-09-08T22:36:04+00:00	88.8%	33.0%	15.6%	83.2%	75.9%
2026-09-08T23:21:09+00:00	88.8%	33.0%	70.8%	83.2%	75.9%
2026-09-09T00:06:14+00:00	88.8%	33.0%	70.8%	83.2%	75.9%
2026-09-09T00:51:21+00:00	88.8%	33.0%	70.8%	83.2%	75.9%
2026-09-09T01:36:26+00:00	85.0%	33.0%	70.8%	83.2%	75.9%
2026-09-09T02:21:31+00:00	85.0%	33.0%	70.8%	83.2%	75.9%
2026-09-09T03:06:37+00:00	85.0%	33.0%	70.8%	83.2%	75.9%
2026-09-09T03:51:46+00:00	85.0%	33.0%	70.8%	83.2%	75.9%
2026-09-09T04:36:50+00:00	85.0%	33.0%	70.8%	83.2%	75.9%
2026-09-09T05:21:55+00:00	85.0%	33.0%	65.6%	83.2%	75.9%
2026-09-09T06:07:01+00:00	85.0%	33.0%	65.6%	83.2%	75.9%
2026-09-09T06:52:06+00:00	85.0%	33.0%	65.6%	83.2%	75.9%
2026-09-09T07:37:14+00:00	66.5%	33.0%	65.6%	74.6%	81.4%
2026-09-09T08:22:29+00:00	66.5%	33.0%	65.6%	74.6%	81.4%
2026-09-09T09:07:33+00:00	66.5%	33.0%	65.6%	74.6%	81.4%
2026-09-09T09:52:37+00:00	66.5%	33.0%	65.6%	74.6%	81.4%
2026-09-09T10:37:41+00:00	66.5%	33.0%	65.6%	74.6%	81.4%
2026-09-09T11:22:46+00:00	66.5%	33.0%	69.7%	74.6%	81.4%
2026-09-09T12:07:54+00:00	66.5%	33.0%	69.7%	74.6%	81.4%
2026-09-09T12:52:58+00:00	66.5%	33.0%	69.7%	74.6%	81.4%
2026-09-09T13:38:03+00:00	40.5%	33.0%	69.7%	74.6%	81.4%
2026-09-09T14:23:18+00:00	40.4%	33.0%	70.5%	74.6%	81.4%
2026-09-11T03:13:33+00:00	56.3%	26.7%	26.4%	74.2%	72.2%
2026-09-11T03:58:44+00:00	56.3%	26.7%	26.4%	74.2%	72.2%
2026-09-11T04:43:49+00:00	56.3%	26.7%	26.4%	74.2%	71.9%
2026-09-11T05:28:54+00:00	56.3%	26.7%	28.9%	74.2%	71.9%
2026-09-11T06:14:03+00:00	56.3%	26.7%	28.9%	74.2%	71.9%
2026-09-11T06:59:07+00:00	56.3%	26.7%	28.9%	74.2%	71.9%
2026-09-11T07:44:15+00:00	40.0%	26.7%	28.9%	21.0%	71.9%
2026-09-11T08:29:33+00:00	40.0%	26.7%	28.9%	21.0%	71.9%
2026-09-11T09:14:39+00:00	40.0%	26.7%	28.9%	21.0%	71.9%
2026-09-11T09:59:44+00:00	40.0%	26.7%	28.9%	21.0%	71.9%
2026-09-11T10:44:49+00:00	40.0%	26.7%	28.9%	21.0%	71.9%
2026-09-11T11:29:54+00:00	40.0%	11.0%	15.7%	21.0%	71.9%
2026-09-11T12:15:02+00:00	40.0%	11.0%	15.7%	21.0%	71.9%
2026-09-11T13:00:08+00:00	40.0%	11.0%	15.7%	21.0%	71.9%
2026-09-11T13:45:21+00:00	32.1%	11.0%	15.7%	21.0%	71.9%
2026-09-11T14:30:49+00:00	32.1%	12.8%	15.7%	21.0%	71.8%
2026-09-12T03:17:41+00:00	28.4%	11.1%	17.7%	17.7%	28.2%
2026-09-12T04:02:54+00:00	28.4%	11.1%	17.7%	17.7%	28.2%
2026-09-12T04:47:59+00:00	28.4%	11.1%	17.7%	17.7%	28.2%
2026-09-12T05:33:03+00:00	28.4%	11.1%	7.4%	17.7%	28.2%
2026-09-12T06:18:12+00:00	28.4%	11.1%	7.4%	17.7%	28.2%
2026-09-12T07:03:17+00:00	28.4%	11.1%	7.4%	17.7%	28.2%
2026-09-12T07:48:24+00:00	35.2%	11.1%	7.4%	13.1%	30.4%
2026-09-12T08:33:44+00:00	35.2%	11.1%	7.4%	13.1%	30.4%
2026-09-12T09:18:48+00:00	35.2%	11.1%	7.4%	13.1%	30.4%
2026-09-12T10:03:54+00:00	35.2%	11.1%	7.4%	13.1%	30.4%
2026-09-12T10:48:58+00:00	35.2%	11.1%	7.4%	13.1%	30.4%
2026-09-12T11:34:04+00:00	35.2%	0.2%	5.3%	13.1%	30.4%
2026-09-12T12:19:13+00:00	35.2%	0.2%	5.3%	13.1%	30.4%
2026-09-12T13:04:21+00:00	35.2%	0.2%	5.3%	13.1%	30.4%
2026-09-12T13:49:26+00:00	33.5%	0.2%	5.3%	13.1%	30.4%
2026-09-12T14:34:57+00:00	33.5%	0.2%	5.3%	20.4%	30.3%
2026-09-12T15:20:07+00:00	33.5%	0.4%	5.3%	13.1%	30.3%
2026-09-12T16:05:20+00:00	33.5%	0.4%	5.3%	13.1%	30.3%
2026-09-12T16:50:26+00:00	33.5%	0.4%	5.3%	13.1%	30.3%
2026-09-12T17:35:31+00:00	33.5%	0.4%	4.4%	13.1%	30.3%
2026-09-12T18:20:40+00:00	33.5%	0.4%	4.4%	13.1%	30.3%
2026-09-12T19:05:45+00:00	33.5%	0.4%	4.4%	13.1%	30.3%
2026-09-12T19:50:50+00:00	44.6%	0.4%	4.4%	13.1%	19.8%
2026-09-12T20:35:56+00:00	44.6%	0.4%	4.4%	13.1%	19.8%
2026-09-12T21:21:01+00:00	44.6%	0.4%	4.4%	13.1%	19.8%
2026-09-12T22:06:07+00:00	44.6%	0.4%	4.4%	13.1%	19.8%
2026-09-12T22:51:12+00:00	44.6%	0.4%	4.4%	25.4%	19.8%
2026-09-12T23:36:18+00:00	44.6%	0.4%	5.6%	25.4%	19.8%
2026-09-13T00:21:24+00:00	44.6%	0.4%	5.6%	25.4%	19.8%
2026-09-13T01:06:31+00:00	44.6%	0.4%	5.6%	25.4%	19.8%
2026-09-13T01:51:41+00:00	39.4%	0.4%	5.6%	25.4%	19.8%
2026-09-13T02:36:51+00:00	39.4%	0.4%	5.6%	25.4%	19.8%
2026-09-13T03:21:56+00:00	39.4%	0.4%	5.6%	25.4%	19.8%
2026-09-13T04:07:03+00:00	39.4%	0.4%	5.6%	25.4%	19.8%
2026-09-13T04:52:17+00:00	39.4%	0.4%	5.6%	25.4%	19.8%
2026-09-13T05:37:22+00:00	39.4%	0.4%	5.6%	25.4%	19.8%
2026-09-13T06:22:31+00:00	39.4%	0.4%	5.6%	25.4%	19.8%
2026-09-13T07:07:36+00:00	39.4%	0.4%	5.6%	25.4%	19.8%
2026-09-13T07:52:43+00:00	33.6%	0.4%	5.6%	20.7%	2.0%
2026-09-13T08:38:10+00:00	33.6%	0.4%	5.6%	20.7%	2.0%
2026-09-13T09:23:16+00:00	33.6%	0.4%	5.6%	20.7%	2.0%
2026-09-13T10:08:21+00:00	33.6%	0.4%	5.6%	20.7%	2.0%
2026-09-13T10:53:27+00:00	33.6%	0.3%	2.2%	20.7%	2.0%
2026-09-13T11:38:37+00:00	33.6%	0.3%	2.2%	20.7%	2.0%
2026-09-13T12:23:43+00:00	33.6%	0.3%	2.2%	20.7%	2.0%
2026-09-13T13:08:48+00:00	33.6%	0.3%	2.2%	20.7%	2.0%
2026-09-13T13:53:53+00:00	39.8%	0.4%	2.3%	20.7%	2.1%
2026-09-13T14:39:24+00:00	39.8%	0.4%	2.3%	20.7%	2.1%
2026-09-13T15:24:29+00:00	39.8%	0.5%	2.3%	20.7%	2.1%
2026-09-13T16:09:35+00:00	39.8%	0.5%	2.3%	20.7%	2.1%
2026-09-13T16:54:40+00:00	39.8%	0.5%	2.8%	20.7%	2.1%
2026-09-13T17:39:49+00:00	39.8%	0.5%	2.8%	20.7%	2.1%
2026-09-13T18:24:58+00:00	39.8%	0.5%	2.8%	20.7%	2.1%
2026-09-13T19:10:03+00:00	39.8%	0.5%	2.8%	20.7%	2.1%
2026-09-13T19:55:07+00:00	28.6%	0.5%	2.8%	21.4%	2.1%
2026-09-13T20:40:14+00:00	28.6%	0.5%	2.8%	21.4%	2.1%
2026-09-13T21:25:18+00:00	28.6%	0.5%	2.8%	21.4%	2.1%
2026-09-13T22:10:23+00:00	28.6%	0.5%	2.8%	21.4%	2.1%
2026-09-13T22:55:27+00:00	28.6%	0.5%	2.6%	21.4%	2.1%
2026-09-13T23:40:33+00:00	28.6%	0.5%	2.6%	21.4%	2.1%
2026-09-14T00:25:38+00:00	28.6%	0.5%	2.6%	21.4%	2.1%
2026-09-14T01:10:45+00:00	28.6%	0.5%	2.6%	21.4%	2.1%
2026-09-14T01:55:50+00:00	24.8%	0.5%	2.6%	20.8%	2.1%
2026-09-14T02:40:55+00:00	24.8%	0.5%	2.6%	20.8%	2.1%
2026-09-14T03:26:01+00:00	24.8%	0.5%	2.6%	20.8%	2.1%
2026-09-14T04:11:06+00:00	24.8%	0.5%	2.6%	21.4%	2.1%
2026-09-14T04:56:20+00:00	24.8%	0.5%	2.3%	21.4%	2.1%
2026-09-14T05:41:26+00:00	24.8%	0.5%	2.3%	21.4%	2.1%
2026-09-14T06:26:33+00:00	24.8%	0.5%	2.3%	21.4%	2.1%
2026-09-14T07:11:37+00:00	24.8%	0.5%	2.3%	21.4%	2.1%
2026-09-14T07:56:44+00:00	26.5%	0.5%	2.3%	13.8%	2.1%
2026-09-14T08:42:08+00:00	26.5%	0.5%	2.3%	13.8%	2.1%
2026-09-14T09:27:12+00:00	26.5%	0.5%	2.3%	13.8%	2.1%
2026-09-14T10:12:17+00:00	26.5%	0.5%	2.3%	13.8%	2.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	26%	81.9°F	4.1°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	14%	80.4°F	3.8°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	8%	80.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-14 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	77.5°F	3.5°F	2026-09-13 18:00	Pending
ICON	2%	77.3°F	3.5°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	79.9°F	2.2°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	78.8°F	2.2°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260915-TMAX-GE85
Opened Sep 08 · 07:23 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 85°F+ · Tue Sep 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗