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KPIT / Tue Sep 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 12 · 02:32 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
5%
ICON
5%
HRES
3%
EPS
1%
WN2
1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

The models are within 4 percentage points. Under the proposed policy, no contract would match.

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.1% · 2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.3% · 2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.8% · 2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.4% · 2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.8% · 2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.8% · 2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.1% · 2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.1% · 2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 33.2% · 2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.0% · 2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 45.4% · 2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.9% · 2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.6% · 2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.4% · 2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.8% · 2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.0% · 2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.7% · 2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.2% · 2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.0% · 2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.9% · 2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.5% · 2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.0% · 2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.6% · 2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.1% · 2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 35.7% · 2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 23.9% · 2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.1% · 2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 21.3% · 2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 15.2% · 2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 21.4% · 2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.7% · 2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.9% · 2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.8% · 2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.5% · 2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.3% · 2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.2% · 2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.0% · 2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.6% · 2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 41.4% · 2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.0% · 2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 43.8% · 2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 30.5% · 2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 47.1% · 2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 33.7% · 2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 47.0% · 2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 50.0% · 2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 50.0% · 2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 57.1% · 2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 53.3% · 2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 42.5% · 2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 48.3% · 2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.7% · 2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.6% · 2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 27.2% · 2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 32.3% · 2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 7.5% · 2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 29.3% · 2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 6.5% · 2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.1% · 2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.4% · 2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.5% · 2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.7% · 2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.4% · 2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.2% · 2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.3% · 2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.8% · 2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.6% · 2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.6% · 2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.5% · 2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.5% · 2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.9% · 2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.3% · 2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.9% · 2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.9% · 2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.9% · 2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.9% · 2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.2% · 2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.8% · 2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 31.1% · 2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 29.1% · 2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 27.0% · 2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.0% · 2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.5% · 2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.7% · 2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.5% · 2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.0% · 2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.1% · 2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.7% · 2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:0008-31 06:0009-08 00:0009-15 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.2%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:000.3%—————
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:000.3%————5.2%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:0026.1%—————
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:001.9%————9.3%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:000.7%—————
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:007.3%————12.8%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:0020.8%—————
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:0013.4%————15.6%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:0011.8%—————
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:0022.8%————9.6%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:005.1%—————
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:004.2%————8.5%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:004.2%—————
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:006.8%————16.5%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:0031.1%—————
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:001.1%————3.9%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:0033.2%—————
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:000.0%————1.3%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:001.9%—————
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:0010.0%————2.9%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:0045.4%—————
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:0031.9%————6.9%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:000.3%—0.1%———
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:008.6%————3.9%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:0029.4%—0.5%———
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:005.8%—2.0%——14.9%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:0038.0%—3.6%———
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:0021.7%—0.0%——17.2%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:009.2%—41.4%———
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:000.1%—9.0%——20.8%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:0011.0%—43.8%———
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:0034.9%—30.5%1.6%—31.1%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:0029.5%—47.1%———
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:0012.0%35.7%33.7%27.2%—29.1%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:003.0%—47.0%———
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:004.6%23.9%50.0%32.3%—27.0%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:002.9%—50.0%———
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:002.1%4.1%57.1%7.5%—10.0%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:002.0%0.0%53.3%———
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:004.1%21.3%42.5%29.3%0.4%12.5%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:004.7%15.2%48.3%——6.7%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:001.6%21.4%2.7%6.5%—1.5%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:000.8%0.7%0.1%———
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:001.9%1.9%0.1%4.1%—1.0%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:000.4%4.8%0.3%——0.1%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:000.6%3.5%0.2%1.4%—0.2%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:000.4%1.3%0.3%——0.5%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:000.9%1.2%0.3%0.5%0.0%1.1%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:000.5%1.1%0.3%——0.7%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:000.2%0.1%0.3%0.7%—0.3%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:000.3%0.1%0.1%0.0%—0.5%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%0.0%0.3%0.0%0.2%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%0.1%0.2%—0.1%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%0.0%0.1%—0.0%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast11%84.0°F4.5°F2026-09-11 14:00Pending
National Blend10%82.7°F5.3°F2026-09-11 06:00Pending
AIFS Single5%81.8°F4.7°F2026-09-11 18:00Pending
ICON5%81.8°F4.7°F2026-09-11 12:00Pending
IFS HRES3%79.8°F5.1°F2026-09-11 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble1%78.4°F5.0°F2026-09-11 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 21%80.9°F3.9°F2026-09-11 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260915-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 08 · 07:23 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Pittsburgh · Tue Sep 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗