KPIT / Tue Sep 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 12 · 02:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

The models are within 4 percentage points. Under the proposed policy, no contract would match.

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-12T02:32:33+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-08T07:23:47+00:00	0.4%	8.2%	10.0%	46.1%	1.8%
2026-09-08T08:08:57+00:00	0.4%	8.2%	10.0%	46.1%	1.8%
2026-09-08T08:54:01+00:00	0.4%	8.2%	10.0%	46.1%	1.8%
2026-09-08T09:39:07+00:00	0.4%	8.2%	10.0%	46.1%	1.8%
2026-09-08T10:24:10+00:00	0.4%	8.4%	10.0%	46.1%	1.8%
2026-09-08T11:09:15+00:00	0.4%	8.4%	0.5%	46.1%	1.8%
2026-09-08T11:54:21+00:00	0.4%	8.4%	0.5%	46.1%	1.8%
2026-09-08T12:39:25+00:00	0.4%	8.4%	0.5%	46.1%	1.8%
2026-09-08T13:24:29+00:00	26.3%	8.4%	0.5%	46.1%	1.8%
2026-09-08T14:09:34+00:00	26.3%	8.4%	0.5%	46.1%	1.8%
2026-09-08T14:54:39+00:00	26.3%	7.5%	0.5%	46.1%	1.8%
2026-09-08T15:39:46+00:00	26.3%	7.5%	0.5%	46.1%	1.8%
2026-09-08T15:49:08+00:00	26.3%	7.5%	0.5%	46.1%	1.8%
2026-09-08T16:00:06+00:00	26.3%	7.5%	0.5%	46.1%	1.8%
2026-09-08T16:45:14+00:00	26.3%	7.5%	0.5%	46.1%	1.8%
2026-09-08T17:06:41+00:00	26.3%	7.5%	1.9%	46.1%	1.8%
2026-09-08T17:20:26+00:00	26.3%	7.5%	1.9%	46.1%	1.8%
2026-09-08T18:05:34+00:00	26.3%	7.5%	1.9%	46.1%	1.8%
2026-09-08T18:50:38+00:00	26.3%	7.5%	1.9%	46.1%	1.8%
2026-09-08T19:35:43+00:00	62.1%	7.5%	1.9%	55.8%	57.7%
2026-09-08T20:20:49+00:00	62.1%	7.5%	1.9%	55.8%	57.7%
2026-09-08T21:05:54+00:00	62.1%	7.5%	1.9%	55.8%	57.7%
2026-09-08T21:50:58+00:00	62.1%	7.5%	1.9%	55.8%	57.7%
2026-09-08T22:36:04+00:00	62.1%	7.5%	1.9%	55.8%	57.7%
2026-09-08T23:21:09+00:00	62.1%	7.5%	30.6%	55.8%	57.7%
2026-09-09T00:06:15+00:00	62.1%	7.5%	30.6%	55.8%	57.7%
2026-09-09T00:51:21+00:00	62.1%	7.5%	30.6%	55.8%	57.7%
2026-09-09T01:36:26+00:00	55.1%	7.5%	30.6%	55.8%	57.7%
2026-09-09T02:21:31+00:00	55.1%	7.5%	30.6%	55.8%	57.7%
2026-09-09T03:06:37+00:00	55.1%	7.5%	30.6%	55.8%	57.7%
2026-09-09T03:51:46+00:00	55.1%	7.5%	30.6%	55.8%	57.7%
2026-09-09T04:36:50+00:00	55.1%	7.5%	30.6%	55.8%	57.7%
2026-09-09T05:21:55+00:00	55.1%	7.5%	25.7%	55.8%	57.7%
2026-09-09T06:07:01+00:00	55.1%	7.5%	25.7%	55.8%	57.7%
2026-09-09T06:52:06+00:00	55.1%	7.5%	25.7%	55.8%	57.7%
2026-09-09T07:37:14+00:00	30.8%	7.5%	25.7%	46.4%	55.9%
2026-09-09T08:22:29+00:00	30.8%	7.5%	25.7%	46.4%	55.9%
2026-09-09T09:07:33+00:00	30.8%	7.5%	25.7%	46.4%	55.9%
2026-09-09T09:52:37+00:00	30.8%	7.5%	25.7%	46.4%	55.9%
2026-09-09T10:37:41+00:00	30.8%	7.5%	25.7%	46.4%	55.9%
2026-09-09T11:22:46+00:00	30.8%	7.5%	27.2%	46.4%	55.9%
2026-09-09T12:07:54+00:00	30.8%	7.5%	27.2%	46.4%	55.9%
2026-09-09T12:52:58+00:00	30.8%	7.5%	27.2%	46.4%	55.9%
2026-09-09T13:38:03+00:00	12.1%	7.5%	27.2%	46.4%	55.9%
2026-09-09T14:23:18+00:00	12.0%	7.5%	28.0%	46.4%	55.9%
2026-09-09T15:08:24+00:00	12.0%	0.1%	28.0%	46.4%	55.9%
2026-09-09T15:53:33+00:00	12.0%	0.1%	28.0%	46.4%	55.9%
2026-09-09T16:38:38+00:00	12.0%	0.1%	28.0%	46.4%	45.8%
2026-09-09T17:23:44+00:00	12.0%	0.1%	4.6%	46.4%	45.8%
2026-09-09T18:08:51+00:00	12.0%	0.1%	4.6%	46.4%	45.8%
2026-09-09T18:53:56+00:00	12.0%	0.1%	4.6%	46.4%	45.8%
2026-09-09T19:39:02+00:00	17.1%	0.1%	4.6%	51.2%	45.8%
2026-09-09T20:24:12+00:00	17.1%	0.1%	4.6%	51.2%	45.8%
2026-09-09T21:09:17+00:00	17.1%	0.1%	4.6%	51.2%	45.8%
2026-09-09T21:54:22+00:00	17.1%	0.1%	4.6%	51.2%	45.8%
2026-09-09T22:39:30+00:00	17.1%	0.1%	4.6%	51.2%	45.8%
2026-09-09T23:24:35+00:00	17.1%	0.1%	8.9%	51.2%	45.8%
2026-09-10T00:09:40+00:00	17.1%	0.1%	8.9%	51.2%	45.8%
2026-09-10T00:54:48+00:00	17.1%	0.1%	8.9%	51.2%	45.8%
2026-09-10T01:39:53+00:00	13.2%	0.1%	8.9%	51.2%	45.8%
2026-09-10T02:25:00+00:00	13.2%	4.4%	8.9%	51.2%	45.8%
2026-09-10T03:10:08+00:00	13.2%	4.4%	8.9%	51.2%	45.8%
2026-09-10T03:55:18+00:00	13.2%	4.4%	8.9%	51.2%	45.8%
2026-09-10T04:40:23+00:00	13.2%	4.4%	8.9%	51.2%	12.5%
2026-09-10T05:25:28+00:00	13.2%	4.4%	2.8%	51.2%	12.5%
2026-09-10T06:10:35+00:00	13.2%	4.4%	2.8%	51.2%	12.5%
2026-09-10T06:55:40+00:00	13.2%	4.4%	2.8%	51.2%	12.5%
2026-09-10T07:40:46+00:00	9.4%	4.4%	2.8%	25.8%	12.5%
2026-09-10T08:26:00+00:00	9.4%	4.4%	2.8%	25.8%	12.5%
2026-09-10T09:11:05+00:00	9.4%	4.4%	2.8%	25.8%	12.5%
2026-09-10T09:56:09+00:00	9.4%	4.4%	2.8%	25.8%	12.5%
2026-09-10T10:41:13+00:00	9.4%	4.4%	2.8%	25.8%	12.5%
2026-09-10T11:26:19+00:00	9.4%	8.0%	0.9%	25.8%	12.5%
2026-09-10T12:11:26+00:00	9.4%	8.0%	0.9%	25.8%	12.5%
2026-09-10T12:56:31+00:00	9.4%	8.0%	0.9%	25.8%	12.5%
2026-09-10T13:41:35+00:00	10.1%	8.0%	0.9%	25.8%	12.5%
2026-09-10T14:26:53+00:00	10.1%	8.0%	0.9%	25.8%	13.0%
2026-09-10T15:12:00+00:00	10.1%	8.0%	0.9%	25.8%	13.0%
2026-09-10T15:57:10+00:00	10.1%	8.0%	0.9%	25.8%	13.0%
2026-09-10T16:42:14+00:00	10.1%	8.0%	0.9%	25.8%	39.1%
2026-09-10T17:27:20+00:00	10.1%	8.0%	7.7%	25.8%	39.1%
2026-09-10T18:12:27+00:00	10.1%	8.0%	7.7%	25.8%	39.1%
2026-09-10T18:57:33+00:00	10.1%	8.0%	7.7%	25.8%	39.1%
2026-09-10T19:42:38+00:00	17.4%	8.0%	7.7%	41.9%	39.1%
2026-09-10T20:27:44+00:00	17.4%	8.0%	7.7%	41.9%	39.1%
2026-09-10T21:12:49+00:00	17.4%	8.0%	7.7%	41.9%	39.1%
2026-09-10T21:57:54+00:00	17.4%	8.0%	7.7%	41.9%	39.1%
2026-09-10T22:42:58+00:00	17.4%	8.0%	7.7%	41.9%	39.1%
2026-09-10T23:28:02+00:00	17.4%	8.0%	3.3%	41.9%	39.1%
2026-09-11T00:13:08+00:00	17.4%	8.0%	3.3%	41.9%	39.1%
2026-09-11T00:58:15+00:00	17.4%	7.9%	3.3%	41.9%	39.1%
2026-09-11T01:43:21+00:00	20.1%	6.9%	3.3%	41.9%	39.1%
2026-09-11T02:28:27+00:00	20.1%	6.9%	3.3%	41.9%	39.1%
2026-09-11T03:13:33+00:00	20.1%	6.9%	3.3%	41.9%	39.1%
2026-09-11T03:58:44+00:00	20.1%	6.9%	3.3%	41.9%	39.1%
2026-09-11T04:43:49+00:00	20.1%	6.9%	3.3%	41.9%	31.0%
2026-09-11T05:28:54+00:00	20.1%	6.9%	3.9%	41.9%	31.0%
2026-09-11T06:14:03+00:00	20.1%	6.9%	3.9%	41.9%	31.0%
2026-09-11T06:59:07+00:00	20.1%	6.9%	3.9%	41.9%	31.0%
2026-09-11T07:44:15+00:00	9.5%	6.9%	3.9%	3.7%	31.0%
2026-09-11T08:29:33+00:00	9.5%	6.9%	3.9%	3.7%	31.0%
2026-09-11T09:14:39+00:00	9.5%	6.9%	3.9%	3.7%	31.0%
2026-09-11T09:59:44+00:00	9.5%	6.9%	3.9%	3.7%	31.0%
2026-09-11T10:44:49+00:00	9.5%	6.9%	3.9%	3.7%	31.0%
2026-09-11T11:29:54+00:00	9.5%	1.3%	1.1%	3.7%	31.0%
2026-09-11T12:15:02+00:00	9.5%	1.3%	1.1%	3.7%	31.0%
2026-09-11T13:00:08+00:00	9.5%	1.3%	1.1%	3.7%	31.0%
2026-09-11T13:45:21+00:00	6.4%	1.3%	1.1%	3.7%	31.0%
2026-09-11T14:30:49+00:00	6.4%	1.7%	1.1%	3.7%	31.1%
2026-09-11T15:15:56+00:00	6.4%	1.3%	1.1%	3.7%	31.1%
2026-09-11T16:01:07+00:00	6.4%	1.3%	1.1%	3.7%	31.1%
2026-09-11T16:46:12+00:00	6.4%	1.3%	1.1%	3.7%	5.0%
2026-09-11T17:31:18+00:00	6.4%	1.3%	1.3%	3.7%	5.0%
2026-09-11T18:16:26+00:00	6.4%	1.3%	1.3%	3.7%	5.0%
2026-09-11T19:01:31+00:00	6.4%	1.3%	1.3%	3.7%	5.0%
2026-09-11T19:46:36+00:00	12.7%	1.3%	1.3%	2.8%	5.0%
2026-09-11T20:31:43+00:00	12.7%	1.3%	1.3%	2.8%	5.0%
2026-09-11T21:16:48+00:00	12.7%	1.3%	1.3%	2.8%	5.0%
2026-09-11T22:01:56+00:00	12.7%	1.3%	1.3%	2.8%	5.0%
2026-09-11T22:47:01+00:00	12.7%	1.3%	1.3%	2.8%	5.0%
2026-09-11T23:32:06+00:00	12.7%	1.3%	1.3%	2.8%	5.0%
2026-09-12T00:17:13+00:00	12.7%	1.3%	1.3%	2.8%	5.0%
2026-09-12T01:02:21+00:00	12.7%	1.3%	1.3%	2.8%	5.0%
2026-09-12T01:47:26+00:00	5.2%	1.3%	1.3%	2.8%	5.0%
2026-09-12T02:32:33+00:00	5.2%	1.3%	1.3%	2.8%	5.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	11%	84.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-11 14:00	Pending
National Blend	10%	82.7°F	5.3°F	2026-09-11 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	5%	81.8°F	4.7°F	2026-09-11 18:00	Pending
ICON	5%	81.8°F	4.7°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	3%	79.8°F	5.1°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	1%	78.4°F	5.0°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	1%	80.9°F	3.9°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260915-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 08 · 07:23 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Pittsburgh · Tue Sep 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗