KPIT / Wed Sep 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST84%Sep 10 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

95%

92%

83%

80%

Consensus

84%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 88.0¢Risks 44.00u

EPSNO 12.0¢Risks 6.00u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +6.00u · EPS −6.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	31.5%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	85.9%	—	—	—	—	38.6%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	87.5%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	37.3%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	2.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	58.4%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	18.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	21.1%	—	—	45.6%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	34.4%	—	19.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	64.0%	—	71.6%	—	—	48.7%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	62.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	86.5%	—	55.4%	—	—	58.7%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	82.9%	—	35.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	82.5%	40.9%	20.9%	64.4%	—	52.8%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	89.6%	—	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	53.6%	95.1%	97.3%	74.6%	—	70.3%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	73.8%	—	93.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	72.4%	95.4%	95.0%	94.4%	51.5%	79.5%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	83.1%	—	61.5%	—	—	3.8%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	90.0%	92.8%	90.7%	94.1%	—	86.9%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	76.9%	8.2%	86.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	90.6%	92.9%	73.5%	93.9%	—	86.7%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	89.7%	94.4%	87.2%	—	—	84.8%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	92.3%	96.4%	86.9%	81.0%	—	91.3%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	92.5%	96.9%	82.2%	—	—	92.5%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	77.7%	47.2%	71.0%	57.3%	—	86.7%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	61.2%	96.8%	87.3%	—	—	89.1%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	65.2%	2.5%	82.9%	70.4%	—	92.5%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	92.7%	88.6%	—	—	92.0%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	53.1%	1.3%	—	78.8%	43.9%	87.2%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	69.3%	93.5%	45.8%	—	—	88.4%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	72.7%	96.5%	45.6%	84.5%	—	92.3%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	61.1%	96.5%	90.3%	0.1%	—	93.7%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	96.5%	48.8%	94.6%	87.9%	96.0%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	54.8%	99.4%	78.4%	82.5%	—	96.3%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	59.9%	98.6%	96.7%	92.9%	84.9%	97.0%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	99.2%	89.7%	96.8%	—	97.6%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	63.2%	99.1%	69.3%	86.6%	93.0%	97.6%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	78.9%	99.5%	98.9%	97.9%	—	98.9%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	60.1%	99.7%	99.0%	89.2%	70.7%	97.9%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	99.8%	98.7%	67.5%	—	96.6%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	92.9%	99.7%	99.6%	99.7%	99.8%	98.0%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	99.4%	99.8%	98.9%	—	83.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	96%	91.6°F	6.7°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	95%	90.2°F	6.7°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	92%	87.0°F	5.4°F	2026-09-10 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	83%	83.8°F	4.5°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	80%	82.4°F	3.5°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	80.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-10 02:00	Pending
National Blend	43%	78.5°F	5.6°F	2026-09-10 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260916-TMAX-GE80
Opened Sep 10 · 03:10 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 80°F · Wed Sep 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗