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KPIT / Wed Sep 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST84%Sep 10 · 14:26 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
96%
HRES
95%
AIFS
92%
WN2
83%
EPS
80%
Consensus
84%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 88.0¢Risks 44.00u
VS
EPSNO 12.0¢Risks 6.00u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +6.00u · EPS −6.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 97.6% · 2026-09-10T03:10:08+00:00AIFS Single: 97.6% · 2026-09-10T03:55:18+00:00AIFS Single: 97.6% · 2026-09-10T04:40:23+00:00AIFS Single: 97.6% · 2026-09-10T05:25:28+00:00AIFS Single: 97.6% · 2026-09-10T06:10:35+00:00AIFS Single: 97.6% · 2026-09-10T06:55:40+00:00AIFS Single: 80.9% · 2026-09-10T07:40:46+00:00AIFS Single: 80.9% · 2026-09-10T08:26:00+00:00AIFS Single: 80.9% · 2026-09-10T09:11:05+00:00AIFS Single: 80.9% · 2026-09-10T09:56:09+00:00AIFS Single: 80.9% · 2026-09-10T10:41:13+00:00AIFS Single: 80.9% · 2026-09-10T11:26:19+00:00AIFS Single: 80.9% · 2026-09-10T12:11:26+00:00AIFS Single: 80.9% · 2026-09-10T12:56:31+00:00AIFS Single: 91.9% · 2026-09-10T13:41:35+00:00AIFS Single: 91.9% · 2026-09-10T14:26:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.2% · 2026-09-10T03:10:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.2% · 2026-09-10T03:55:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.2% · 2026-09-10T04:40:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.2% · 2026-09-10T05:25:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.2% · 2026-09-10T06:10:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.2% · 2026-09-10T06:55:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.2% · 2026-09-10T07:40:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.2% · 2026-09-10T08:26:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.2% · 2026-09-10T09:11:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.2% · 2026-09-10T09:56:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.2% · 2026-09-10T10:41:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.6% · 2026-09-10T11:26:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.6% · 2026-09-10T12:11:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.6% · 2026-09-10T12:56:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.6% · 2026-09-10T13:41:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.6% · 2026-09-10T14:26:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.8% · 2026-09-10T03:10:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.8% · 2026-09-10T03:55:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.8% · 2026-09-10T04:40:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.4% · 2026-09-10T05:25:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.4% · 2026-09-10T06:10:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.4% · 2026-09-10T06:55:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.4% · 2026-09-10T07:40:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.4% · 2026-09-10T08:26:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.4% · 2026-09-10T09:11:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.4% · 2026-09-10T09:56:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.4% · 2026-09-10T10:41:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.3% · 2026-09-10T11:26:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.3% · 2026-09-10T12:11:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.3% · 2026-09-10T12:56:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.3% · 2026-09-10T13:41:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.3% · 2026-09-10T14:26:53+00:00IFS HRES: 65.2% · 2026-09-10T03:10:08+00:00IFS HRES: 65.2% · 2026-09-10T03:55:18+00:00IFS HRES: 65.2% · 2026-09-10T04:40:23+00:00IFS HRES: 65.2% · 2026-09-10T05:25:28+00:00IFS HRES: 65.2% · 2026-09-10T06:10:35+00:00IFS HRES: 65.2% · 2026-09-10T06:55:40+00:00IFS HRES: 94.6% · 2026-09-10T07:40:46+00:00IFS HRES: 94.6% · 2026-09-10T08:26:00+00:00IFS HRES: 94.6% · 2026-09-10T09:11:05+00:00IFS HRES: 94.6% · 2026-09-10T09:56:09+00:00IFS HRES: 94.6% · 2026-09-10T10:41:13+00:00IFS HRES: 94.6% · 2026-09-10T11:26:19+00:00IFS HRES: 94.6% · 2026-09-10T12:11:26+00:00IFS HRES: 94.6% · 2026-09-10T12:56:31+00:00IFS HRES: 94.6% · 2026-09-10T13:41:35+00:00IFS HRES: 94.6% · 2026-09-10T14:26:53+00:00ICON: 69.2% · 2026-09-10T03:10:08+00:00ICON: 69.2% · 2026-09-10T03:55:18+00:00ICON: 96.3% · 2026-09-10T04:40:23+00:00ICON: 96.3% · 2026-09-10T05:25:28+00:00ICON: 96.3% · 2026-09-10T06:10:35+00:00ICON: 96.3% · 2026-09-10T06:55:40+00:00ICON: 96.3% · 2026-09-10T07:40:46+00:00ICON: 96.3% · 2026-09-10T08:26:00+00:00ICON: 96.3% · 2026-09-10T09:11:05+00:00ICON: 96.3% · 2026-09-10T09:56:09+00:00ICON: 96.3% · 2026-09-10T10:41:13+00:00ICON: 96.3% · 2026-09-10T11:26:19+00:00ICON: 96.3% · 2026-09-10T12:11:26+00:00ICON: 96.3% · 2026-09-10T12:56:31+00:00ICON: 96.3% · 2026-09-10T13:41:35+00:00ICON: 96.4% · 2026-09-10T14:26:53+00:0009-10 03:1009-10 09:1109-10 14:26
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-10T14:26:53+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-10T03:10:08+00:0097.6%99.2%81.8%65.2%69.2%
2026-09-10T03:55:18+00:0097.6%99.2%81.8%65.2%69.2%
2026-09-10T04:40:23+00:0097.6%99.2%81.8%65.2%96.3%
2026-09-10T05:25:28+00:0097.6%99.2%82.4%65.2%96.3%
2026-09-10T06:10:35+00:0097.6%99.2%82.4%65.2%96.3%
2026-09-10T06:55:40+00:0097.6%99.2%82.4%65.2%96.3%
2026-09-10T07:40:46+00:0080.9%99.2%82.4%94.6%96.3%
2026-09-10T08:26:00+00:0080.9%99.2%82.4%94.6%96.3%
2026-09-10T09:11:05+00:0080.9%99.2%82.4%94.6%96.3%
2026-09-10T09:56:09+00:0080.9%99.2%82.4%94.6%96.3%
2026-09-10T10:41:13+00:0080.9%99.2%82.4%94.6%96.3%
2026-09-10T11:26:19+00:0080.9%79.6%83.3%94.6%96.3%
2026-09-10T12:11:26+00:0080.9%79.6%83.3%94.6%96.3%
2026-09-10T12:56:31+00:0080.9%79.6%83.3%94.6%96.3%
2026-09-10T13:41:35+00:0091.9%79.6%83.3%94.6%96.3%
2026-09-10T14:26:53+00:0091.9%79.6%83.3%94.6%96.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON96%91.6°F6.7°F2026-09-10 00:00Pending
IFS HRES95%90.2°F6.7°F2026-09-10 00:00Pending
AIFS Single92%87.0°F5.4°F2026-09-10 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 283%83.8°F4.5°F2026-09-10 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble80%82.4°F3.5°F2026-09-10 00:00Pending
NWS forecast53%80.0°F5.8°F2026-09-10 02:00Pending
National Blend43%78.5°F5.6°F2026-09-10 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260916-TMAX-GE80
Opened Sep 10 · 03:10 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 80°F · Wed Sep 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗