KPIT / Fri Sep 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST92%Sep 11 · 10:44 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

93%

92%

84%

53%

Consensus

92%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 76.2¢Risks 76.15u

ICONNO 23.8¢Risks 23.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +23.85u · ICON −23.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	85.4%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	98.8%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	99.6%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	99.6%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	67.1%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	30.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	99.3%	—	—	—	—	72.3%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	82.6%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	98.9%	—	44.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	99.2%	—	59.9%	—	—	89.2%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	62.9%	—	15.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	59.6%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	76.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	98.7%	—	6.9%	—	—	73.6%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	48.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	55.2%	—	68.8%	79.8%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	76.3%	—	87.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	74.0%	29.4%	65.8%	—	—	86.5%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	88.7%	—	99.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	85.9%	70.2%	63.1%	74.3%	—	91.3%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	87.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	75.1%	95.9%	—	95.6%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	79.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	—	82.1%	92.2%	—	98.6%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	70.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	92.8%	88.5%	—	96.7%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	81.0%	—	83.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	71.4%	—	—	95.1%	—	93.7%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	95.3%	—	—	96.1%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	88.7%	—	99.3%	91.3%	—	96.2%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	86.5%	81.6%	99.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	97.7%	91.4%	—	91.7%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	86.8%	83.5%	98.6%	—	—	87.8%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	91.4%	93.2%	96.2%	96.6%	—	87.4%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	90.8%	94.6%	95.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	93.3%	84.3%	96.0%	91.8%	—	89.2%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	95.8%	92.4%	94.2%	—	—	91.6%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	93.0%	90.1%	96.0%	97.7%	91.0%	91.9%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	94.0%	89.3%	95.2%	41.0%	—	93.3%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	94.3%	96.0%	97.3%	96.7%	81.0%	95.2%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	96.0%	94.8%	97.3%	96.7%	—	96.3%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	96.5%	93.7%	97.4%	96.3%	—	97.0%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	97.4%	95.1%	94.0%	98.1%	—	97.2%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	98.0%	94.7%	96.8%	98.8%	85.9%	98.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	97.7%	97.7%	99.2%	97.3%	—	97.7%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	98.5%	99.6%	98.5%	98.7%	89.2%	98.8%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	98.6%	98.6%	96.6%	99.2%	—	98.5%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	99.2%	98.8%	95.9%	99.6%	81.9%	99.2%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	18.1%	99.6%	97.7%	99.4%	—	99.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	82.5°F	5.1°F	2026-09-10 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	93%	78.7°F	5.5°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	92%	77.8°F	5.1°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	84%	76.5°F	6.1°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	71.4°F	6.7°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending
ICON	53%	71.3°F	9.8°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260918-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 11 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 71°F · Fri Sep 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗