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KPIT / Fri Sep 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST92%Sep 11 · 10:44 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
>99%
AIFS
93%
EPS
92%
HRES
84%
ICON
53%
Consensus
92%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 76.2¢Risks 76.15u
VS
ICONNO 23.8¢Risks 23.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +23.85u · ICON −23.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 93.2% · 2026-09-11T07:44:15+00:00AIFS Single: 93.2% · 2026-09-11T08:29:33+00:00AIFS Single: 93.2% · 2026-09-11T09:14:39+00:00AIFS Single: 93.2% · 2026-09-11T09:59:44+00:00AIFS Single: 93.2% · 2026-09-11T10:44:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.5% · 2026-09-11T07:44:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.5% · 2026-09-11T08:29:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.5% · 2026-09-11T09:14:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.5% · 2026-09-11T09:59:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.5% · 2026-09-11T10:44:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.1% · 2026-09-11T07:44:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.1% · 2026-09-11T08:29:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.1% · 2026-09-11T09:14:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.1% · 2026-09-11T09:59:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.1% · 2026-09-11T10:44:49+00:00IFS HRES: 83.6% · 2026-09-11T07:44:15+00:00IFS HRES: 83.6% · 2026-09-11T08:29:33+00:00IFS HRES: 83.6% · 2026-09-11T09:14:39+00:00IFS HRES: 83.6% · 2026-09-11T09:59:44+00:00IFS HRES: 83.6% · 2026-09-11T10:44:49+00:00ICON: 53.2% · 2026-09-11T07:44:15+00:00ICON: 53.2% · 2026-09-11T08:29:33+00:00ICON: 53.2% · 2026-09-11T09:14:39+00:00ICON: 53.2% · 2026-09-11T09:59:44+00:00ICON: 53.2% · 2026-09-11T10:44:49+00:0009-11 07:4409-11 09:1409-11 10:44
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-11T10:44:49+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-11T07:44:15+00:0093.2%92.5%99.1%83.6%53.2%
2026-09-11T08:29:33+00:0093.2%92.5%99.1%83.6%53.2%
2026-09-11T09:14:39+00:0093.2%92.5%99.1%83.6%53.2%
2026-09-11T09:59:44+00:0093.2%92.5%99.1%83.6%53.2%
2026-09-11T10:44:49+00:0093.2%92.5%99.1%83.6%53.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2>99%82.5°F5.1°F2026-09-10 18:00Pending
AIFS Single93%78.7°F5.5°F2026-09-11 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble92%77.8°F5.1°F2026-09-10 00:00Pending
IFS HRES84%76.5°F6.1°F2026-09-11 00:00Pending
National Blend55%71.4°F6.7°F2026-09-11 00:00Pending
ICON53%71.3°F9.8°F2026-09-11 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260918-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 11 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 71°F · Fri Sep 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗