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KPIT / Fri Sep 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 14 · 03:26 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
5%
HRES
4%
AIFS
3%
ICON
2%
EPS
2%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

The models are within 4 percentage points. Under the proposed policy, no contract would match.

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 39.5% · 2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 54.8% · 2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.5% · 2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.9% · 2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 54.8% · 2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.4% · 2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.9% · 2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 32.7% · 2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.6% · 2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.0% · 2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.3% · 2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.2% · 2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 23.9% · 2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.2% · 2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.0% · 2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.1% · 2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.8% · 2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.4% · 2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.1% · 2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.3% · 2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.5% · 2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.0% · 2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.4% · 2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.9% · 2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.5% · 2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.8% · 2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.1% · 2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.5% · 2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.3% · 2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.2% · 2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.8% · 2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.1% · 2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.9% · 2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.9% · 2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.7% · 2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.2% · 2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.7% · 2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.3% · 2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.8% · 2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.6% · 2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.5% · 2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.7% · 2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.0% · 2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:0009-03 06:0009-11 00:0009-18 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.2%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:000.5%—————
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:001.5%————6.9%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:000.6%—————
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:001.2%————2.5%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:000.6%—————
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:0039.5%————2.8%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:000.4%—————
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:0054.8%————3.1%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:003.5%—————
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:007.9%————3.5%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:000.7%—————
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:002.9%————1.3%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:000.4%—————
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:0054.8%————1.2%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:000.2%—————
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:000.8%————1.8%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:0043.4%————2.1%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:0010.9%—————
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:000.3%————3.9%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:0032.7%—0.2%———
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:0034.6%—0.5%——5.9%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:000.6%—0.0%———
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:000.4%————0.7%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:000.5%—1.3%———
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:0022.0%—0.0%——0.9%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:001.6%—0.1%———
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:000.2%—0.1%—0.4%1.2%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:000.7%—2.2%———
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:000.5%0.0%0.2%——1.7%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:001.9%—23.9%———
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:001.1%0.2%0.1%0.4%—2.3%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:001.7%—1.2%———
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:000.6%—0.2%4.1%—3.8%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:000.9%—0.3%———
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:000.1%—0.3%1.3%—7.6%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:000.3%—0.1%———
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:000.1%—1.0%0.5%—2.5%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:000.1%—0.2%———
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:000.0%——1.0%—0.7%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:000.2%—0.8%——1.0%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:000.1%—4.1%0.2%—0.8%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%3.8%———
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:000.1%—0.8%0.1%—0.1%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%1.1%——0.0%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:000.1%0.1%0.2%0.2%—0.0%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%0.1%———
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%——0.0%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend7%79.6°F6.6°F2026-09-13 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 25%82.7°F4.1°F2026-09-13 12:00Pending
IFS HRES4%79.0°F5.8°F2026-09-13 12:00Pending
AIFS Single3%80.3°F5.0°F2026-09-13 18:00Pending
NWS forecast3%80.0°F5.1°F2026-09-13 16:00Pending
ICON2%77.6°F5.8°F2026-09-13 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble2%81.6°F3.8°F2026-09-13 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260918-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 11 · 13:45 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Pittsburgh · Fri Sep 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗