KPIT / Fri Sep 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 14 · 03:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

The models are within 4 percentage points. Under the proposed policy, no contract would match.

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-14T03:26:01+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-11T13:45:21+00:00	8.4%	1.9%	8.5%	1.7%	3.2%
2026-09-11T14:30:49+00:00	8.4%	2.4%	8.6%	1.7%	3.2%
2026-09-11T15:15:56+00:00	8.4%	1.7%	8.6%	1.7%	3.2%
2026-09-11T16:01:07+00:00	8.4%	1.7%	8.6%	1.7%	3.2%
2026-09-11T16:46:12+00:00	8.4%	1.7%	8.6%	1.7%	11.1%
2026-09-11T17:31:18+00:00	8.4%	1.7%	18.3%	1.7%	11.1%
2026-09-11T18:16:26+00:00	8.4%	1.7%	18.3%	1.7%	11.1%
2026-09-11T19:01:31+00:00	8.4%	1.7%	18.3%	1.7%	11.1%
2026-09-11T19:46:36+00:00	5.8%	1.7%	18.3%	0.8%	11.1%
2026-09-11T20:31:43+00:00	5.8%	1.7%	18.3%	0.8%	11.1%
2026-09-11T21:16:48+00:00	5.8%	1.7%	18.3%	0.8%	11.1%
2026-09-11T22:01:56+00:00	5.8%	1.7%	18.3%	0.8%	11.1%
2026-09-11T22:47:02+00:00	5.8%	1.7%	18.3%	0.8%	11.1%
2026-09-11T23:32:06+00:00	5.8%	1.7%	18.9%	0.8%	11.1%
2026-09-12T00:17:13+00:00	5.8%	1.7%	18.9%	0.8%	11.1%
2026-09-12T01:02:21+00:00	5.8%	1.7%	18.9%	0.8%	11.1%
2026-09-12T01:47:26+00:00	8.7%	1.7%	18.9%	0.8%	11.1%
2026-09-12T02:32:33+00:00	8.7%	1.7%	18.9%	0.8%	11.1%
2026-09-12T03:17:41+00:00	8.7%	1.7%	18.9%	0.8%	11.1%
2026-09-12T04:02:54+00:00	8.7%	1.7%	18.9%	0.8%	11.1%
2026-09-12T04:47:59+00:00	8.7%	1.7%	18.9%	0.8%	11.1%
2026-09-12T05:33:03+00:00	8.7%	1.7%	10.4%	0.8%	11.1%
2026-09-12T06:18:12+00:00	8.7%	1.7%	10.4%	0.8%	11.1%
2026-09-12T07:03:17+00:00	8.7%	1.7%	10.4%	0.8%	11.1%
2026-09-12T07:48:24+00:00	4.1%	1.7%	10.4%	53.6%	23.4%
2026-09-12T08:33:44+00:00	4.1%	1.7%	10.4%	53.6%	23.4%
2026-09-12T09:18:48+00:00	4.1%	1.7%	10.4%	53.6%	23.4%
2026-09-12T10:03:54+00:00	4.1%	1.7%	10.4%	53.6%	23.4%
2026-09-12T10:48:58+00:00	4.1%	1.7%	10.4%	53.6%	23.4%
2026-09-12T11:34:05+00:00	4.1%	0.9%	10.1%	53.6%	23.4%
2026-09-12T12:19:13+00:00	4.1%	0.9%	10.1%	53.6%	23.4%
2026-09-12T13:04:21+00:00	4.1%	0.9%	10.1%	53.6%	23.4%
2026-09-12T13:49:26+00:00	5.9%	0.9%	10.1%	53.6%	23.4%
2026-09-12T14:34:57+00:00	5.9%	0.9%	10.1%	52.8%	23.4%
2026-09-12T15:20:07+00:00	5.9%	1.4%	10.1%	53.6%	23.4%
2026-09-12T16:05:20+00:00	5.9%	1.4%	10.1%	53.6%	23.4%
2026-09-12T16:50:26+00:00	5.9%	1.4%	10.1%	53.6%	23.4%
2026-09-12T17:35:31+00:00	5.9%	1.4%	11.7%	53.6%	23.4%
2026-09-12T18:20:40+00:00	5.9%	1.4%	11.7%	53.6%	23.4%
2026-09-12T19:05:45+00:00	5.9%	1.4%	11.7%	53.6%	23.4%
2026-09-12T19:50:50+00:00	2.0%	1.4%	11.7%	53.6%	1.8%
2026-09-12T20:35:56+00:00	2.0%	1.4%	11.7%	53.6%	1.8%
2026-09-12T21:21:01+00:00	2.0%	1.4%	11.7%	53.6%	1.8%
2026-09-12T22:06:07+00:00	2.0%	1.4%	11.7%	53.6%	1.8%
2026-09-12T22:51:12+00:00	2.0%	1.4%	11.7%	31.5%	1.8%
2026-09-12T23:36:18+00:00	2.0%	1.4%	12.6%	31.5%	1.8%
2026-09-13T00:21:24+00:00	2.0%	1.4%	12.6%	31.5%	1.8%
2026-09-13T01:06:31+00:00	2.0%	1.4%	12.6%	31.5%	1.8%
2026-09-13T01:51:41+00:00	3.2%	1.4%	12.6%	31.5%	1.8%
2026-09-13T02:36:51+00:00	3.2%	1.4%	12.6%	31.5%	1.8%
2026-09-13T03:21:56+00:00	3.2%	1.4%	12.6%	31.5%	1.8%
2026-09-13T04:07:03+00:00	3.2%	1.4%	12.6%	31.5%	1.8%
2026-09-13T04:52:17+00:00	3.2%	1.4%	12.6%	31.5%	1.8%
2026-09-13T05:37:22+00:00	3.2%	1.4%	12.6%	31.5%	1.8%
2026-09-13T06:22:31+00:00	3.2%	1.4%	12.6%	31.5%	1.8%
2026-09-13T07:07:36+00:00	3.2%	1.4%	12.6%	31.5%	1.8%
2026-09-13T16:54:40+00:00	2.0%	1.9%	8.4%	1.2%	2.0%
2026-09-13T17:39:49+00:00	2.0%	1.9%	8.4%	1.2%	2.0%
2026-09-13T18:24:58+00:00	2.0%	1.9%	8.4%	1.2%	2.0%
2026-09-13T19:10:03+00:00	2.0%	1.9%	8.4%	1.2%	2.0%
2026-09-13T19:55:07+00:00	0.8%	1.9%	8.4%	3.6%	2.0%
2026-09-13T20:40:14+00:00	0.8%	1.9%	8.4%	3.6%	2.0%
2026-09-13T21:25:18+00:00	0.8%	1.9%	8.4%	3.6%	2.0%
2026-09-13T22:10:23+00:00	0.8%	1.9%	8.4%	3.6%	2.0%
2026-09-14T01:55:50+00:00	3.3%	1.9%	5.0%	3.6%	2.0%
2026-09-14T02:40:55+00:00	3.3%	1.9%	5.0%	3.6%	2.0%
2026-09-14T03:26:01+00:00	3.3%	1.9%	5.0%	3.6%	2.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	7%	79.6°F	6.6°F	2026-09-13 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	5%	82.7°F	4.1°F	2026-09-13 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	4%	79.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-13 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	3%	80.3°F	5.0°F	2026-09-13 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	3%	80.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-13 16:00	Pending
ICON	2%	77.6°F	5.8°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	2%	81.6°F	3.8°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260918-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 11 · 13:45 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Pittsburgh · Fri Sep 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗