KPIT / Sat Sep 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Sep 19 · 06:54 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

74%

71%

64%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 43.0¢Risks 42.95u

ICONNO 57.0¢Risks 57.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +57.05u · ICON −57.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	—	—	—	37.0%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	—	—	—	22.1%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	22.6%	—	3.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	72.2%	—	—	—	—	13.8%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	35.2%	—	53.6%	22.8%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	12.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	34.7%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	30.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	14.1%	—	—	40.3%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	35.1%	—	38.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	48.0%	—	10.8%	—	—	47.3%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	35.2%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	80.6%	27.5%	—	58.4%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	36.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	—	52.9%	74.0%	—	62.9%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	58.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	—	67.7%	—	50.8%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	93.7%	—	—	2.1%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	96.2%	61.0%	—	81.1%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	37.2%	2.0%	97.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	0.7%	48.3%	—	70.0%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	10.7%	23.9%	95.7%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	9.7%	69.3%	94.1%	59.6%	—	47.4%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	81.0%	94.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	77.7%	79.7%	82.2%	—	41.8%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	90.0%	80.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	30.4%	72.1%	76.0%	76.8%	2.0%	53.9%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	21.9%	60.9%	56.0%	—	—	57.0%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	29.4%	34.0%	74.1%	—	60.2%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	36.5%	0.1%	—	—	64.5%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	35.1%	23.8%	0.2%	53.3%	—	54.4%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	33.6%	19.0%	0.9%	0.0%	—	48.9%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	24.2%	12.7%	39.6%	53.5%	8.1%	57.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	19.9%	44.0%	16.7%	53.6%	—	59.5%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	22.7%	10.0%	46.3%	45.0%	1.3%	72.4%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	23.8%	20.9%	44.9%	—	65.1%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	26.2%	43.3%	68.1%	19.1%	59.3%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	19.1%	25.3%	48.6%	68.8%	—	63.7%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	16.3%	76.6%	64.2%	11.5%	66.9%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	21.3%	8.6%	74.0%	60.5%	—	70.2%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	20.3%	82.9%	59.4%	17.1%	53.2%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	5.3%	67.6%	18.1%	—	13.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	79%	79.3°F	3.5°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	78.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	74%	78.9°F	3.8°F	2026-09-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	71%	78.0°F	2.7°F	2026-09-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	64%	78.0°F	4.1°F	2026-09-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-19 02:00	Pending
ICON	7%	71.5°F	3.4°F	2026-09-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260919-TMAX-GE77
Opened Sep 13 · 04:07 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 77°F · Sat Sep 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗