KPIT / Sat Sep 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Sep 19 · 06:54 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

74%

71%

64%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 43.0¢Risks 42.95u

ICONNO 57.0¢Risks 57.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +57.05u · ICON −57.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-19T06:54:36+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-13T04:07:03+00:00	64.8%	65.3%	93.5%	42.3%	39.2%
2026-09-13T04:52:17+00:00	64.8%	65.3%	93.5%	42.3%	39.2%
2026-09-13T05:37:22+00:00	64.8%	65.3%	93.5%	42.3%	39.2%
2026-09-13T06:22:31+00:00	64.8%	65.3%	93.5%	42.3%	39.2%
2026-09-13T07:07:36+00:00	64.8%	65.3%	93.5%	42.3%	39.2%
2026-09-13T07:52:43+00:00	65.2%	65.3%	93.5%	49.4%	93.3%
2026-09-13T08:38:10+00:00	65.2%	65.3%	93.5%	49.4%	93.3%
2026-09-13T09:23:16+00:00	65.2%	65.3%	93.5%	49.4%	93.3%
2026-09-13T10:08:21+00:00	65.2%	65.3%	93.5%	49.4%	93.3%
2026-09-13T10:53:27+00:00	65.2%	64.6%	77.7%	49.4%	93.3%
2026-09-13T11:38:37+00:00	65.2%	64.6%	77.7%	49.4%	93.3%
2026-09-13T12:23:43+00:00	65.2%	64.6%	77.7%	49.4%	93.3%
2026-09-13T13:08:48+00:00	65.2%	64.6%	77.7%	49.4%	93.3%
2026-09-13T13:53:53+00:00	65.2%	64.6%	77.7%	49.4%	93.3%
2026-09-13T14:39:24+00:00	65.2%	64.6%	77.7%	49.4%	93.3%
2026-09-13T15:24:29+00:00	65.2%	66.9%	77.7%	49.4%	93.3%
2026-09-13T16:09:35+00:00	65.2%	66.9%	77.7%	49.4%	93.3%
2026-09-13T16:54:40+00:00	65.2%	66.9%	83.8%	49.4%	93.3%
2026-09-13T17:39:49+00:00	65.2%	66.9%	83.8%	49.4%	93.3%
2026-09-13T18:24:58+00:00	65.2%	66.9%	83.8%	49.4%	93.3%
2026-09-13T19:10:03+00:00	65.2%	66.9%	83.8%	49.4%	93.3%
2026-09-13T19:55:07+00:00	65.2%	66.9%	83.8%	71.6%	93.3%
2026-09-13T20:40:14+00:00	65.2%	66.9%	83.8%	71.6%	93.3%
2026-09-13T21:25:18+00:00	65.2%	66.9%	83.8%	71.6%	93.3%
2026-09-13T22:10:23+00:00	65.2%	66.9%	83.8%	71.6%	93.3%
2026-09-13T22:55:27+00:00	65.2%	66.9%	82.1%	71.6%	93.3%
2026-09-13T23:40:33+00:00	65.2%	66.9%	82.1%	71.6%	93.3%
2026-09-14T00:25:38+00:00	65.2%	66.9%	82.1%	71.6%	93.3%
2026-09-14T01:10:45+00:00	65.2%	66.9%	82.1%	71.6%	93.3%
2026-09-14T01:55:50+00:00	76.1%	66.9%	82.1%	71.6%	93.3%
2026-09-14T02:40:55+00:00	76.1%	66.9%	82.1%	71.6%	93.3%
2026-09-14T03:26:01+00:00	76.1%	66.9%	82.1%	71.6%	93.3%
2026-09-17T15:00:43+00:00	73.1%	57.9%	84.1%	67.7%	19.0%
2026-09-17T15:46:02+00:00	73.1%	57.9%	84.1%	67.7%	19.0%
2026-09-17T16:31:08+00:00	73.1%	57.9%	84.1%	67.7%	10.6%
2026-09-17T17:16:19+00:00	73.1%	57.9%	82.6%	67.7%	10.6%
2026-09-17T18:01:24+00:00	73.1%	57.9%	82.6%	67.7%	10.6%
2026-09-17T18:46:32+00:00	73.1%	57.9%	82.6%	67.7%	10.6%
2026-09-17T19:31:37+00:00	65.6%	57.9%	82.6%	67.7%	10.6%
2026-09-17T20:16:43+00:00	65.6%	57.9%	82.6%	67.7%	10.6%
2026-09-17T21:01:48+00:00	65.6%	57.9%	82.6%	67.7%	10.6%
2026-09-17T21:46:53+00:00	65.6%	57.9%	82.6%	67.7%	10.6%
2026-09-17T22:31:58+00:00	65.6%	57.9%	82.6%	77.3%	10.6%
2026-09-17T23:17:03+00:00	65.6%	57.9%	78.7%	77.3%	10.6%
2026-09-18T00:02:08+00:00	65.6%	57.9%	78.7%	77.3%	10.6%
2026-09-18T00:47:15+00:00	65.6%	57.9%	78.7%	77.3%	10.6%
2026-09-18T01:32:21+00:00	62.1%	57.9%	78.7%	77.3%	10.6%
2026-09-18T02:17:26+00:00	62.1%	57.9%	78.7%	77.3%	10.6%
2026-09-18T03:02:35+00:00	62.1%	57.9%	78.7%	77.3%	10.6%
2026-09-18T03:48:03+00:00	62.1%	57.9%	78.7%	77.3%	10.6%
2026-09-18T04:33:07+00:00	62.1%	57.9%	78.7%	77.3%	6.0%
2026-09-18T05:18:12+00:00	62.1%	57.9%	78.7%	77.3%	6.0%
2026-09-18T06:03:18+00:00	62.1%	57.9%	78.7%	77.3%	6.0%
2026-09-18T06:48:25+00:00	62.1%	57.9%	78.7%	77.3%	6.0%
2026-09-18T07:33:32+00:00	65.1%	57.9%	78.7%	79.6%	6.0%
2026-09-18T08:19:06+00:00	65.1%	57.9%	78.7%	79.6%	6.0%
2026-09-18T09:04:11+00:00	65.1%	57.9%	78.7%	79.6%	6.0%
2026-09-18T09:49:19+00:00	65.1%	57.9%	78.7%	79.6%	6.0%
2026-09-18T10:34:26+00:00	65.1%	57.9%	78.7%	79.6%	6.0%
2026-09-18T11:20:00+00:00	65.1%	69.7%	78.7%	79.6%	6.0%
2026-09-18T12:05:13+00:00	65.1%	69.7%	78.7%	79.6%	6.0%
2026-09-18T12:50:18+00:00	65.1%	69.7%	78.7%	79.6%	6.0%
2026-09-18T13:35:24+00:00	61.5%	69.7%	78.7%	79.6%	6.0%
2026-09-18T14:21:54+00:00	61.5%	69.7%	78.7%	79.6%	6.0%
2026-09-19T03:08:50+00:00	64.3%	70.9%	78.7%	73.9%	17.6%
2026-09-19T03:54:12+00:00	64.3%	70.9%	78.7%	73.9%	17.6%
2026-09-19T04:39:18+00:00	64.3%	70.9%	78.7%	73.9%	7.2%
2026-09-19T05:24:23+00:00	64.3%	70.9%	78.7%	73.9%	7.2%
2026-09-19T06:09:27+00:00	64.3%	70.9%	78.7%	73.9%	7.2%
2026-09-19T06:54:36+00:00	64.3%	70.9%	78.7%	73.9%	7.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	79%	79.3°F	3.5°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	78.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	74%	78.9°F	3.8°F	2026-09-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	71%	78.0°F	2.7°F	2026-09-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	64%	78.0°F	4.1°F	2026-09-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-19 02:00	Pending
ICON	7%	71.5°F	3.4°F	2026-09-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260919-TMAX-GE77
Opened Sep 13 · 04:07 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 77°F · Sat Sep 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗