KPIT / Sat Sep 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Sep 17 · 02:12 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

70%

61%

44%

24%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 52.9¢Risks 52.95u

ICONNO 47.1¢Risks 47.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +47.05u · ICON −47.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	25.6%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	—	29.7%	—	47.6%	18.5%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	9.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	—	—	—	29.1%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	48.1%	—	25.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	44.8%	—	10.7%	—	—	34.2%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	32.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	—	8.0%	—	—	40.6%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	—	27.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	19.9%	—	75.4%	21.9%	—	51.4%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	—	45.6%	67.7%	—	55.8%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	—	60.6%	—	43.2%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	90.8%	—	—	1.3%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	94.3%	53.2%	—	75.2%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	1.2%	95.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	30.0%	—	0.4%	40.1%	—	62.3%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	7.2%	17.8%	93.3%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	6.5%	61.3%	91.0%	50.9%	—	38.8%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	74.3%	91.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	70.3%	72.6%	75.6%	—	33.0%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	85.2%	73.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	22.5%	63.4%	67.8%	68.7%	1.1%	44.2%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	51.0%	46.0%	—	—	47.0%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	37.8%	21.2%	25.1%	65.1%	—	50.0%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	27.1%	0.0%	—	—	54.2%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	16.2%	0.1%	42.4%	—	43.5%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	12.3%	0.4%	0.0%	—	37.8%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	7.6%	28.9%	41.9%	4.5%	45.4%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	32.5%	10.2%	41.6%	—	47.6%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	14.4%	5.5%	34.2%	33.1%	0.6%	61.1%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	10.9%	15.0%	12.8%	32.5%	—	52.6%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	16.5%	30.7%	55.4%	11.3%	46.0%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	15.6%	35.0%	55.6%	—	50.0%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	12.2%	8.9%	64.2%	50.0%	5.9%	52.9%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	4.1%	60.5%	45.5%	—	56.0%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	11.0%	71.0%	43.7%	8.9%	37.6%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.1%	51.6%	9.2%	—	6.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	82%	80.8°F	3.7°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	70%	79.8°F	4.4°F	2026-09-16 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	61%	78.8°F	4.5°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	78.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-16 14:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	78.0°F	5.5°F	2026-09-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	44%	77.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
ICON	24%	74.8°F	3.9°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260919-TMAX-GE78
Opened Sep 14 · 04:11 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 78°F · Sat Sep 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗