KPIT / Sat Sep 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Sep 17 · 02:12 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

70%

61%

44%

24%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 52.9¢Risks 52.95u

ICONNO 47.1¢Risks 47.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +47.05u · ICON −47.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-17T02:12:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-14T04:11:06+00:00	69.9%	59.1%	75.6%	66.3%	91.1%
2026-09-14T04:56:20+00:00	69.9%	59.1%	90.7%	66.3%	91.1%
2026-09-14T05:41:26+00:00	69.9%	59.1%	90.7%	66.3%	91.1%
2026-09-14T06:26:33+00:00	69.9%	59.1%	90.7%	66.3%	91.1%
2026-09-14T07:11:37+00:00	69.9%	59.1%	90.7%	66.3%	91.1%
2026-09-14T07:56:44+00:00	73.9%	59.1%	90.7%	85.6%	37.8%
2026-09-14T08:42:08+00:00	73.9%	59.1%	90.7%	85.6%	37.8%
2026-09-14T09:27:12+00:00	73.9%	59.1%	90.7%	85.6%	37.8%
2026-09-14T10:12:17+00:00	73.9%	59.1%	90.7%	85.6%	37.8%
2026-09-14T10:57:23+00:00	73.9%	70.4%	90.7%	85.6%	37.8%
2026-09-14T11:42:32+00:00	73.9%	70.4%	90.7%	85.6%	37.8%
2026-09-14T12:27:37+00:00	73.9%	70.4%	90.7%	85.6%	37.8%
2026-09-14T13:12:42+00:00	73.9%	70.4%	90.7%	85.6%	37.8%
2026-09-14T13:57:47+00:00	61.1%	70.4%	90.7%	85.6%	37.8%
2026-09-14T14:43:28+00:00	61.1%	70.4%	90.7%	85.6%	37.8%
2026-09-14T15:28:35+00:00	61.1%	72.3%	90.7%	85.6%	37.8%
2026-09-14T16:13:49+00:00	61.1%	72.3%	90.7%	85.6%	37.8%
2026-09-14T16:58:55+00:00	61.1%	72.3%	83.9%	85.6%	37.8%
2026-09-14T17:44:01+00:00	61.1%	72.3%	83.9%	85.6%	37.8%
2026-09-14T18:29:09+00:00	61.1%	72.3%	83.9%	85.6%	37.8%
2026-09-14T19:14:14+00:00	61.1%	72.3%	83.9%	85.6%	37.8%
2026-09-14T19:59:19+00:00	62.6%	72.3%	83.9%	29.2%	30.2%
2026-09-14T20:44:25+00:00	62.6%	72.3%	83.9%	29.2%	30.2%
2026-09-14T21:29:30+00:00	62.6%	72.3%	83.9%	29.2%	30.2%
2026-09-14T22:14:35+00:00	62.6%	72.3%	83.9%	29.2%	30.2%
2026-09-14T22:59:40+00:00	62.6%	72.3%	88.6%	29.2%	30.2%
2026-09-14T23:44:48+00:00	62.6%	72.3%	88.6%	29.2%	30.2%
2026-09-15T00:29:55+00:00	62.6%	72.3%	88.6%	29.2%	30.2%
2026-09-15T01:15:03+00:00	62.6%	72.3%	88.6%	29.2%	30.2%
2026-09-15T02:00:08+00:00	30.8%	72.3%	88.6%	29.2%	30.2%
2026-09-15T02:45:13+00:00	30.8%	72.3%	88.6%	29.2%	30.2%
2026-09-16T03:36:09+00:00	60.9%	49.0%	77.1%	34.0%	77.6%
2026-09-16T04:21:31+00:00	60.9%	49.0%	77.1%	34.0%	77.6%
2026-09-16T05:06:36+00:00	60.9%	49.0%	73.9%	34.0%	77.6%
2026-09-16T05:51:44+00:00	60.9%	49.0%	73.9%	34.0%	77.6%
2026-09-16T06:36:53+00:00	60.9%	49.0%	73.9%	34.0%	77.6%
2026-09-16T07:22:01+00:00	58.9%	49.0%	73.9%	63.8%	67.8%
2026-09-16T08:07:27+00:00	58.9%	49.0%	73.9%	63.8%	67.8%
2026-09-16T08:52:38+00:00	58.9%	49.0%	73.9%	63.8%	67.8%
2026-09-16T09:37:45+00:00	58.9%	49.0%	73.9%	63.8%	67.8%
2026-09-16T10:22:58+00:00	58.9%	49.0%	73.9%	63.8%	67.8%
2026-09-16T11:08:04+00:00	58.9%	52.7%	75.3%	63.8%	67.8%
2026-09-16T11:53:15+00:00	58.9%	52.7%	75.3%	63.8%	67.8%
2026-09-16T12:38:20+00:00	58.9%	52.7%	75.3%	63.8%	67.8%
2026-09-16T13:23:25+00:00	50.0%	52.7%	75.3%	63.8%	67.8%
2026-09-16T14:09:43+00:00	50.0%	52.7%	75.3%	63.8%	67.8%
2026-09-16T14:54:51+00:00	50.0%	44.2%	75.3%	63.8%	67.8%
2026-09-16T15:40:06+00:00	50.0%	44.2%	75.3%	63.8%	67.8%
2026-09-16T16:25:12+00:00	50.0%	44.2%	75.3%	61.9%	24.4%
2026-09-16T17:10:18+00:00	50.0%	44.2%	74.4%	61.9%	24.4%
2026-09-16T17:55:34+00:00	50.0%	44.2%	74.4%	61.9%	24.4%
2026-09-16T18:40:44+00:00	50.0%	44.2%	74.4%	61.9%	24.4%
2026-09-16T19:25:49+00:00	73.6%	44.2%	74.4%	59.7%	24.4%
2026-09-16T20:10:55+00:00	73.6%	44.2%	74.4%	59.7%	24.4%
2026-09-16T20:56:00+00:00	73.6%	44.2%	74.4%	59.7%	24.4%
2026-09-16T21:41:04+00:00	73.6%	44.2%	74.4%	59.7%	24.4%
2026-09-16T22:26:09+00:00	73.6%	44.2%	74.4%	59.7%	24.4%
2026-09-16T23:11:15+00:00	73.7%	44.2%	81.6%	61.3%	24.3%
2026-09-16T23:56:27+00:00	73.7%	44.2%	81.6%	61.3%	24.3%
2026-09-17T00:41:32+00:00	73.7%	44.2%	81.6%	61.3%	24.3%
2026-09-17T01:26:42+00:00	69.9%	44.2%	81.6%	61.3%	24.3%
2026-09-17T02:12:04+00:00	69.9%	44.2%	81.6%	61.3%	24.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	82%	80.8°F	3.7°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	70%	79.8°F	4.4°F	2026-09-16 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	61%	78.8°F	4.5°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	78.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-16 14:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	78.0°F	5.5°F	2026-09-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	44%	77.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
ICON	24%	74.8°F	3.9°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260919-TMAX-GE78
Opened Sep 14 · 04:11 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 78°F · Sat Sep 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗