KPIT / Sat Sep 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 18 · 02:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

17%

12%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 8.7¢Risks 4.35u

ICONNO 91.3¢Risks 45.65u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.65u · ICON −45.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	4.3%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	7.2%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	9.7%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	1.7%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	7.4%	—	16.5%	3.5%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	6.7%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	5.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	1.3%	—	—	8.3%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	7.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	0.8%	—	—	10.5%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	5.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	35.6%	3.3%	—	15.3%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	11.3%	26.0%	—	17.0%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	13.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	—	18.9%	—	9.3%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	56.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	64.8%	13.1%	—	30.1%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	0.0%	67.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	0.0%	6.6%	—	17.3%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	1.4%	58.5%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	15.1%	50.9%	9.7%	—	5.4%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	24.2%	51.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	19.6%	21.6%	24.4%	—	3.4%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	35.2%	21.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	13.1%	15.9%	16.5%	0.0%	5.4%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	7.0%	5.4%	—	—	5.7%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	0.9%	1.3%	12.3%	—	6.1%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	1.4%	0.0%	—	—	6.8%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	0.4%	0.0%	3.3%	—	3.5%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	—	2.2%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.1%	1.1%	2.5%	0.0%	3.1%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.2%	0.1%	2.2%	—	3.1%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.0%	1.1%	1.0%	0.0%	5.5%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.8%	—	3.0%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.6%	3.0%	0.1%	1.7%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.7%	2.5%	—	1.8%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	3.5%	1.5%	0.0%	1.8%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	2.2%	0.9%	—	1.7%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	3.4%	0.6%	0.0%	0.4%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.7%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	17%	79.6°F	4.1°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	12%	79.3°F	3.5°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	10%	78.0°F	4.3°F	2026-09-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	9%	77.8°F	4.2°F	2026-09-17 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	3%	77.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-17 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	2%	77.1°F	3.0°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	<1%	72.1°F	3.5°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260919-TMAX-GE84
Opened Sep 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 84°F+ · Sat Sep 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗