KPIT / Sat Sep 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 18 · 02:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

17%

12%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 8.7¢Risks 4.35u

ICONNO 91.3¢Risks 45.65u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.65u · ICON −45.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-18T02:17:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-12T07:48:24+00:00	30.0%	5.1%	36.9%	89.8%	29.8%
2026-09-12T08:33:44+00:00	30.0%	5.1%	36.9%	89.8%	29.8%
2026-09-12T09:18:48+00:00	30.0%	5.1%	36.9%	89.8%	29.8%
2026-09-12T10:03:54+00:00	30.0%	5.1%	36.9%	89.8%	29.8%
2026-09-12T10:48:58+00:00	30.0%	5.1%	36.9%	89.8%	29.8%
2026-09-12T11:34:05+00:00	30.0%	13.4%	37.6%	89.8%	29.8%
2026-09-12T12:19:13+00:00	30.0%	13.4%	37.6%	89.8%	29.8%
2026-09-12T13:04:21+00:00	30.0%	13.4%	37.6%	89.8%	29.8%
2026-09-12T13:49:26+00:00	19.2%	13.4%	37.6%	89.8%	29.8%
2026-09-12T14:34:57+00:00	19.2%	13.7%	37.6%	85.7%	29.8%
2026-09-12T15:20:07+00:00	19.2%	16.3%	37.6%	89.7%	29.8%
2026-09-12T16:05:20+00:00	19.2%	16.3%	37.6%	89.7%	29.8%
2026-09-12T16:50:26+00:00	19.2%	16.3%	37.6%	89.7%	29.8%
2026-09-12T17:35:31+00:00	19.2%	16.3%	51.7%	89.7%	29.8%
2026-09-12T18:20:40+00:00	19.2%	16.3%	51.7%	89.7%	29.8%
2026-09-12T19:05:45+00:00	19.2%	16.3%	51.7%	89.7%	29.8%
2026-09-12T19:50:50+00:00	11.2%	16.3%	51.7%	89.7%	16.2%
2026-09-12T20:35:56+00:00	11.2%	16.3%	51.7%	89.7%	16.2%
2026-09-12T21:21:01+00:00	11.2%	16.3%	51.7%	89.7%	16.2%
2026-09-12T22:06:07+00:00	11.2%	16.3%	51.7%	89.7%	16.2%
2026-09-12T22:51:12+00:00	11.2%	16.3%	51.7%	9.2%	16.2%
2026-09-12T23:36:18+00:00	11.3%	16.3%	51.7%	9.1%	16.2%
2026-09-13T00:21:24+00:00	11.3%	16.3%	51.7%	9.1%	16.2%
2026-09-13T01:06:31+00:00	11.3%	16.3%	51.7%	9.1%	16.2%
2026-09-13T01:51:41+00:00	18.8%	16.3%	51.7%	9.1%	16.2%
2026-09-13T02:36:51+00:00	18.8%	16.3%	51.7%	9.1%	16.2%
2026-09-13T03:21:56+00:00	18.8%	16.3%	51.7%	9.1%	16.2%
2026-09-13T04:07:03+00:00	18.8%	16.3%	51.7%	9.1%	16.2%
2026-09-13T04:52:17+00:00	18.8%	16.3%	51.7%	9.1%	16.2%
2026-09-13T05:37:22+00:00	18.8%	16.3%	51.7%	9.1%	16.2%
2026-09-13T06:22:31+00:00	18.8%	16.3%	51.7%	9.1%	16.2%
2026-09-13T07:07:36+00:00	18.8%	16.3%	51.7%	9.1%	16.2%
2026-09-13T07:52:43+00:00	18.0%	16.3%	51.7%	14.3%	67.7%
2026-09-13T08:38:10+00:00	18.0%	16.3%	51.7%	14.3%	67.7%
2026-09-13T09:23:16+00:00	18.0%	16.3%	51.7%	14.3%	67.7%
2026-09-13T10:08:21+00:00	18.0%	16.3%	51.7%	14.3%	67.7%
2026-09-13T10:53:27+00:00	18.0%	13.9%	21.0%	14.3%	67.7%
2026-09-13T11:38:37+00:00	18.0%	13.9%	21.0%	14.3%	67.7%
2026-09-13T12:23:43+00:00	18.0%	13.9%	21.0%	14.3%	67.7%
2026-09-13T13:08:48+00:00	18.0%	13.9%	21.0%	14.3%	67.7%
2026-09-13T13:53:53+00:00	18.0%	13.9%	21.0%	14.3%	67.7%
2026-09-13T14:39:24+00:00	18.0%	13.9%	21.0%	14.3%	67.7%
2026-09-13T15:24:29+00:00	18.0%	15.4%	21.0%	14.3%	67.7%
2026-09-13T16:09:35+00:00	18.0%	15.4%	21.0%	14.3%	67.7%
2026-09-13T16:54:40+00:00	18.0%	15.4%	28.0%	14.3%	67.7%
2026-09-13T17:39:49+00:00	18.0%	15.4%	28.0%	14.3%	67.7%
2026-09-13T18:24:58+00:00	18.0%	15.4%	28.0%	14.3%	67.7%
2026-09-13T19:10:03+00:00	18.0%	15.4%	28.0%	14.3%	67.7%
2026-09-13T19:55:07+00:00	18.0%	15.4%	28.0%	31.5%	67.7%
2026-09-13T20:40:14+00:00	18.0%	15.4%	28.0%	31.5%	67.7%
2026-09-13T21:25:18+00:00	18.0%	15.4%	28.0%	31.5%	67.7%
2026-09-13T22:10:23+00:00	18.0%	15.4%	28.0%	31.5%	67.7%
2026-09-13T22:55:27+00:00	18.0%	15.4%	25.8%	31.5%	67.7%
2026-09-13T23:40:33+00:00	18.0%	15.4%	25.8%	31.5%	67.7%
2026-09-14T00:25:38+00:00	18.0%	15.4%	25.8%	31.5%	67.7%
2026-09-14T01:10:45+00:00	18.0%	15.4%	25.8%	31.5%	67.7%
2026-09-14T01:55:50+00:00	27.5%	15.4%	25.8%	31.5%	67.7%
2026-09-14T02:40:55+00:00	27.5%	15.4%	25.8%	31.5%	67.7%
2026-09-14T03:26:01+00:00	27.5%	15.4%	25.8%	31.5%	67.7%
2026-09-14T04:11:06+00:00	27.5%	15.4%	25.8%	31.5%	67.7%
2026-09-14T04:56:20+00:00	27.5%	15.4%	49.1%	31.5%	67.7%
2026-09-14T05:41:26+00:00	27.5%	15.4%	49.1%	31.5%	67.7%
2026-09-14T06:26:33+00:00	27.5%	15.4%	49.1%	31.5%	67.7%
2026-09-14T07:11:37+00:00	27.5%	15.4%	49.1%	31.5%	67.7%
2026-09-14T07:56:44+00:00	28.7%	15.4%	49.1%	51.4%	8.9%
2026-09-14T08:42:08+00:00	28.7%	15.4%	49.1%	51.4%	8.9%
2026-09-14T09:27:12+00:00	28.7%	15.4%	49.1%	51.4%	8.9%
2026-09-14T10:12:17+00:00	28.7%	15.4%	49.1%	51.4%	8.9%
2026-09-14T10:57:23+00:00	28.7%	19.5%	49.1%	51.4%	8.9%
2026-09-14T11:42:32+00:00	28.7%	19.5%	49.1%	51.4%	8.9%
2026-09-14T12:27:37+00:00	28.7%	19.5%	49.1%	51.4%	8.9%
2026-09-14T13:12:42+00:00	28.7%	19.5%	49.1%	51.4%	8.9%
2026-09-14T13:57:47+00:00	17.8%	19.5%	49.1%	51.4%	8.9%
2026-09-14T14:43:28+00:00	17.8%	19.5%	49.1%	51.4%	8.9%
2026-09-14T15:28:35+00:00	17.8%	22.0%	49.1%	51.4%	8.9%
2026-09-14T16:13:49+00:00	17.8%	22.0%	49.1%	51.4%	8.9%
2026-09-14T16:58:55+00:00	17.8%	22.0%	32.3%	51.4%	8.9%
2026-09-14T17:44:01+00:00	17.8%	22.0%	32.3%	51.4%	8.9%
2026-09-14T18:29:09+00:00	17.8%	22.0%	32.3%	51.4%	8.9%
2026-09-14T19:14:14+00:00	17.8%	22.0%	32.3%	51.4%	8.9%
2026-09-14T19:59:19+00:00	18.8%	22.0%	32.3%	5.8%	6.0%
2026-09-14T20:44:25+00:00	18.8%	22.0%	32.3%	5.8%	6.0%
2026-09-14T21:29:30+00:00	18.8%	22.0%	32.3%	5.8%	6.0%
2026-09-14T22:14:35+00:00	18.8%	22.0%	32.3%	5.8%	6.0%
2026-09-14T22:59:40+00:00	18.8%	22.0%	40.5%	5.8%	6.0%
2026-09-14T23:44:48+00:00	18.8%	22.0%	40.5%	5.8%	6.0%
2026-09-15T00:29:55+00:00	18.8%	22.0%	40.5%	5.8%	6.0%
2026-09-15T01:15:03+00:00	18.8%	22.0%	40.5%	5.8%	6.0%
2026-09-15T02:00:08+00:00	4.4%	22.0%	40.5%	5.8%	6.0%
2026-09-15T02:45:13+00:00	4.4%	22.0%	40.5%	5.8%	6.0%
2026-09-15T03:30:20+00:00	4.4%	22.0%	40.5%	5.8%	6.0%
2026-09-15T04:15:38+00:00	4.4%	22.0%	40.5%	5.8%	6.0%
2026-09-15T05:00:43+00:00	4.4%	22.0%	43.3%	5.8%	6.0%
2026-09-15T05:45:49+00:00	4.4%	22.0%	43.3%	5.8%	6.0%
2026-09-15T06:30:58+00:00	4.4%	22.0%	43.3%	5.8%	6.0%
2026-09-15T07:16:02+00:00	4.4%	22.0%	43.3%	5.8%	6.0%
2026-09-15T08:01:13+00:00	3.4%	22.0%	43.3%	14.8%	23.7%
2026-09-15T08:46:41+00:00	3.4%	22.0%	43.3%	14.8%	23.7%
2026-09-15T09:31:46+00:00	3.4%	22.0%	43.3%	14.8%	23.7%
2026-09-15T10:16:50+00:00	3.4%	22.0%	43.3%	14.8%	23.7%
2026-09-15T11:02:01+00:00	3.4%	5.6%	46.9%	14.8%	23.7%
2026-09-15T11:47:15+00:00	3.4%	5.6%	46.9%	14.8%	23.7%
2026-09-15T12:32:20+00:00	3.4%	5.6%	46.9%	14.8%	23.7%
2026-09-15T13:17:25+00:00	3.4%	5.6%	46.9%	14.8%	23.7%
2026-09-15T14:02:32+00:00	5.3%	5.6%	46.9%	22.5%	23.7%
2026-09-15T14:48:51+00:00	5.3%	5.6%	46.9%	22.5%	23.7%
2026-09-15T15:33:58+00:00	5.3%	5.4%	46.9%	14.8%	23.7%
2026-09-15T16:19:06+00:00	5.3%	5.4%	46.9%	14.8%	23.7%
2026-09-15T17:04:21+00:00	5.3%	5.4%	26.1%	14.8%	23.7%
2026-09-15T17:49:28+00:00	5.3%	5.4%	26.1%	14.8%	23.7%
2026-09-15T18:34:37+00:00	5.3%	5.4%	26.1%	14.8%	23.7%
2026-09-15T19:19:42+00:00	5.3%	5.4%	26.1%	14.8%	23.7%
2026-09-15T20:04:47+00:00	11.3%	5.4%	26.1%	14.8%	30.7%
2026-09-15T20:49:53+00:00	11.3%	5.4%	26.1%	14.8%	30.7%
2026-09-15T21:35:01+00:00	11.3%	5.4%	26.1%	14.8%	30.7%
2026-09-15T22:20:08+00:00	11.3%	5.4%	26.1%	14.8%	30.7%
2026-09-15T23:05:14+00:00	11.3%	5.4%	21.3%	5.5%	30.7%
2026-09-15T23:50:20+00:00	11.3%	5.4%	21.3%	5.5%	30.7%
2026-09-16T00:35:27+00:00	11.3%	5.4%	21.3%	5.5%	30.7%
2026-09-16T01:20:35+00:00	11.3%	5.4%	21.3%	5.5%	30.7%
2026-09-16T02:05:44+00:00	15.9%	5.4%	21.3%	5.5%	30.7%
2026-09-16T02:50:57+00:00	15.9%	5.4%	21.3%	5.5%	30.7%
2026-09-16T03:36:09+00:00	15.9%	5.4%	21.3%	5.5%	30.7%
2026-09-16T04:21:31+00:00	15.9%	5.4%	21.3%	5.5%	30.7%
2026-09-16T05:06:36+00:00	15.9%	5.4%	18.5%	5.5%	30.7%
2026-09-16T05:51:44+00:00	15.9%	5.4%	18.5%	5.5%	30.7%
2026-09-16T06:36:53+00:00	15.9%	5.4%	18.5%	5.5%	30.7%
2026-09-16T07:22:01+00:00	13.0%	5.4%	18.5%	16.6%	14.1%
2026-09-16T08:07:27+00:00	13.0%	5.4%	18.5%	16.6%	14.1%
2026-09-16T08:52:38+00:00	13.0%	5.4%	18.5%	16.6%	14.1%
2026-09-16T09:37:45+00:00	13.0%	5.4%	18.5%	16.6%	14.1%
2026-09-16T10:22:58+00:00	13.0%	5.4%	18.5%	16.6%	14.1%
2026-09-16T11:08:04+00:00	13.0%	2.3%	16.9%	16.6%	14.1%
2026-09-16T11:53:15+00:00	13.0%	2.3%	16.9%	16.6%	14.1%
2026-09-16T12:38:20+00:00	13.0%	2.3%	16.9%	16.6%	14.1%
2026-09-16T13:23:25+00:00	8.8%	2.3%	16.9%	16.6%	14.1%
2026-09-16T14:09:43+00:00	8.8%	2.3%	16.9%	16.6%	14.0%
2026-09-16T14:54:51+00:00	8.8%	2.8%	16.9%	16.6%	14.0%
2026-09-16T15:40:06+00:00	8.8%	2.8%	16.9%	16.6%	14.0%
2026-09-16T16:25:12+00:00	8.8%	2.8%	16.9%	20.2%	1.3%
2026-09-16T17:10:18+00:00	8.8%	2.8%	16.3%	20.2%	1.3%
2026-09-16T17:55:34+00:00	8.8%	2.8%	16.3%	20.2%	1.3%
2026-09-16T18:40:44+00:00	8.8%	2.8%	16.3%	20.2%	1.3%
2026-09-16T19:25:49+00:00	23.5%	2.8%	16.3%	18.6%	1.3%
2026-09-16T20:10:55+00:00	23.5%	2.8%	16.3%	18.6%	1.3%
2026-09-16T20:56:00+00:00	23.5%	2.8%	16.3%	18.6%	1.3%
2026-09-16T21:41:04+00:00	23.5%	2.8%	16.3%	18.6%	1.3%
2026-09-16T22:26:09+00:00	23.5%	2.8%	16.3%	18.6%	1.3%
2026-09-16T23:11:15+00:00	23.5%	2.8%	23.0%	15.0%	1.2%
2026-09-16T23:56:27+00:00	23.5%	2.8%	23.0%	15.0%	1.2%
2026-09-17T00:41:32+00:00	23.5%	2.8%	23.0%	15.0%	1.2%
2026-09-17T01:26:42+00:00	20.1%	2.8%	23.0%	15.0%	1.2%
2026-09-17T02:12:04+00:00	20.1%	2.8%	23.0%	15.0%	1.2%
2026-09-17T02:57:11+00:00	20.1%	2.8%	23.0%	15.0%	1.2%
2026-09-17T03:42:30+00:00	20.1%	2.8%	23.0%	15.0%	1.2%
2026-09-17T04:27:39+00:00	20.1%	2.8%	23.0%	15.0%	0.2%
2026-09-17T05:12:45+00:00	20.1%	2.8%	21.4%	15.0%	0.2%
2026-09-17T05:57:52+00:00	20.1%	2.8%	21.4%	15.0%	0.2%
2026-09-17T06:42:59+00:00	20.1%	2.8%	21.4%	15.0%	0.2%
2026-09-17T07:28:04+00:00	15.5%	2.8%	21.4%	15.0%	0.2%
2026-09-17T08:13:09+00:00	15.5%	2.8%	21.4%	15.0%	0.2%
2026-09-17T08:58:13+00:00	15.5%	2.8%	21.4%	15.0%	0.2%
2026-09-17T09:43:23+00:00	15.5%	2.8%	21.4%	15.0%	0.2%
2026-09-17T10:28:29+00:00	15.5%	2.8%	21.4%	10.9%	0.2%
2026-09-17T11:14:01+00:00	15.5%	1.4%	15.9%	10.9%	0.2%
2026-09-17T11:59:12+00:00	15.5%	1.4%	15.9%	10.9%	0.2%
2026-09-17T12:44:16+00:00	15.5%	1.4%	15.9%	10.9%	0.2%
2026-09-17T13:29:21+00:00	14.9%	1.4%	15.9%	10.9%	0.2%
2026-09-17T14:15:34+00:00	14.9%	1.4%	15.9%	10.9%	0.2%
2026-09-17T15:00:43+00:00	14.9%	1.7%	15.9%	10.9%	0.2%
2026-09-17T15:46:02+00:00	14.9%	1.7%	15.9%	10.9%	0.2%
2026-09-17T16:31:08+00:00	14.9%	1.7%	15.9%	10.9%	0.1%
2026-09-17T17:16:19+00:00	14.9%	1.7%	14.6%	10.9%	0.1%
2026-09-17T18:01:24+00:00	14.9%	1.7%	14.6%	10.9%	0.1%
2026-09-17T18:46:32+00:00	14.9%	1.7%	14.6%	10.9%	0.1%
2026-09-17T19:31:37+00:00	10.5%	1.7%	14.6%	10.9%	0.1%
2026-09-17T20:16:43+00:00	10.5%	1.7%	14.6%	10.9%	0.1%
2026-09-17T21:01:48+00:00	10.5%	1.7%	14.6%	10.9%	0.1%
2026-09-17T21:46:53+00:00	10.5%	1.7%	14.6%	10.9%	0.1%
2026-09-17T22:31:58+00:00	10.5%	1.7%	14.6%	17.3%	0.1%
2026-09-17T23:17:03+00:00	10.5%	1.7%	11.6%	17.3%	0.1%
2026-09-18T00:02:08+00:00	10.5%	1.7%	11.6%	17.3%	0.1%
2026-09-18T00:47:15+00:00	10.5%	1.7%	11.6%	17.3%	0.1%
2026-09-18T01:32:21+00:00	8.8%	1.7%	11.6%	17.3%	0.1%
2026-09-18T02:17:26+00:00	8.8%	1.7%	11.6%	17.3%	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	17%	79.6°F	4.1°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	12%	79.3°F	3.5°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	10%	78.0°F	4.3°F	2026-09-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	9%	77.8°F	4.2°F	2026-09-17 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	3%	77.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-17 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	2%	77.1°F	3.0°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	<1%	72.1°F	3.5°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260919-TMAX-GE84
Opened Sep 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 84°F+ · Sat Sep 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗