KPIT / Sun Sep 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST94%Sep 14 · 03:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

96%

93%

87%

77%

Consensus

94%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 87.7¢Risks 87.70u

ICONNO 12.3¢Risks 12.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +12.30u · ICON −12.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	62.6%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	77.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	—	—	—	37.0%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	—	—	54.5%	47.2%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	—	—	—	—	41.8%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	12.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	47.0%	—	4.3%	—	—	44.6%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	48.1%	—	—	—	—	53.1%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	52.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	24.6%	—	30.1%	—	—	51.9%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	28.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	38.7%	—	24.4%	—	—	86.5%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	96.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	64.4%	—	79.6%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	62.0%	—	79.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	99.8%	69.6%	—	96.1%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	47.0%	—	99.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	96.7%	—	—	91.3%	—	95.2%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	65.9%	—	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	83.7%	58.7%	75.2%	64.1%	—	92.5%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	38.7%	69.5%	82.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	35.3%	70.0%	36.9%	73.5%	—	76.8%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	33.4%	81.0%	22.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	36.3%	77.2%	94.3%	81.6%	—	81.0%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	55.4%	75.0%	71.3%	—	—	50.9%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	82.2%	48.2%	66.1%	57.3%	—	90.6%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	61.2%	95.6%	68.2%	—	—	25.3%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	49.0%	50.0%	46.1%	49.0%	—	87.9%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	57.0%	45.0%	36.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	56.1%	51.0%	67.9%	46.9%	15.1%	82.4%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	64.5%	76.3%	—	—	90.4%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	64.9%	53.3%	26.4%	66.9%	7.7%	84.5%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	57.8%	44.4%	32.6%	34.6%	—	87.1%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	60.4%	50.0%	37.4%	54.6%	33.1%	92.8%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	75.6%	54.8%	96.7%	76.6%	—	93.8%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	56.2%	45.0%	34.2%	100.0%	27.6%	97.4%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	51.3%	70.9%	90.2%	100.0%	—	97.2%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	40.7%	83.5%	85.9%	86.6%	65.7%	89.3%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	51.4%	82.7%	89.6%	—	90.8%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	34.5%	37.2%	84.6%	52.9%	93.7%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	42.5%	45.5%	33.8%	78.7%	—	86.4%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	40.6%	63.9%	59.4%	40.6%	92.3%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	41.8%	32.4%	53.3%	—	85.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	81.8°F	4.8°F	2026-09-13 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	96%	82.2°F	6.2°F	2026-09-13 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	93%	79.3°F	5.3°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	87%	77.7°F	5.5°F	2026-09-13 18:00	Pending
ICON	77%	78.7°F	9.8°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	72.4°F	6.6°F	2026-09-13 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260920-TMAX-GE72
Opened Sep 13 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 72°F · Sun Sep 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗