KPIT / Sun Sep 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST94%Sep 14 · 03:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

96%

93%

87%

77%

Consensus

94%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 87.7¢Risks 87.70u

ICONNO 12.3¢Risks 12.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +12.30u · ICON −12.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-14T03:26:01+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-13T10:53:27+00:00	69.4%	92.1%	99.3%	98.6%	76.8%
2026-09-13T11:38:37+00:00	69.4%	92.1%	99.3%	98.6%	76.8%
2026-09-13T12:23:43+00:00	69.4%	92.1%	99.3%	98.6%	76.8%
2026-09-13T13:08:48+00:00	69.4%	92.1%	99.3%	98.6%	76.8%
2026-09-13T13:53:53+00:00	82.6%	92.1%	99.3%	98.6%	76.9%
2026-09-13T14:39:24+00:00	82.6%	92.1%	99.3%	98.6%	76.9%
2026-09-13T15:24:29+00:00	82.6%	92.9%	99.3%	98.6%	76.9%
2026-09-13T16:09:35+00:00	82.6%	92.9%	99.3%	98.6%	76.9%
2026-09-13T16:54:40+00:00	82.6%	92.9%	96.9%	98.6%	76.9%
2026-09-13T17:39:49+00:00	82.6%	92.9%	96.9%	98.6%	76.9%
2026-09-13T18:24:58+00:00	82.6%	92.9%	96.9%	98.6%	76.9%
2026-09-13T19:10:03+00:00	82.6%	92.9%	96.9%	98.6%	76.9%
2026-09-13T19:55:07+00:00	66.8%	92.9%	96.9%	95.9%	76.9%
2026-09-13T20:40:14+00:00	66.8%	92.9%	96.9%	95.9%	76.9%
2026-09-13T21:25:18+00:00	66.8%	92.9%	96.9%	95.9%	76.9%
2026-09-13T22:10:23+00:00	66.8%	92.9%	96.9%	95.9%	76.9%
2026-09-13T22:55:27+00:00	66.8%	92.9%	98.5%	95.9%	76.9%
2026-09-13T23:40:33+00:00	66.8%	92.9%	98.5%	95.9%	76.9%
2026-09-14T00:25:38+00:00	66.8%	92.9%	98.5%	95.9%	76.9%
2026-09-14T01:10:45+00:00	66.8%	92.9%	98.5%	95.9%	76.9%
2026-09-14T01:55:50+00:00	86.8%	92.9%	98.5%	95.9%	76.9%
2026-09-14T02:40:55+00:00	86.8%	92.9%	98.5%	95.9%	76.9%
2026-09-14T03:26:01+00:00	86.8%	92.9%	98.5%	95.9%	76.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	81.8°F	4.8°F	2026-09-13 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	96%	82.2°F	6.2°F	2026-09-13 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	93%	79.3°F	5.3°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	87%	77.7°F	5.5°F	2026-09-13 18:00	Pending
ICON	77%	78.7°F	9.8°F	2026-09-13 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	72.4°F	6.6°F	2026-09-13 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260920-TMAX-GE72
Opened Sep 13 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 72°F · Sun Sep 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗