KPIT / Sun Sep 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Sep 19 · 02:23 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

89%

80%

74%

16%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 57.2¢Risks 57.20u

ICONNO 42.8¢Risks 42.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +42.80u · ICON −42.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	25.6%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	63.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	24.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	37.7%	30.9%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	—	—	—	25.9%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	5.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	1.5%	—	—	27.7%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	—	—	—	34.7%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	33.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	15.6%	—	—	33.0%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	14.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	21.3%	—	11.4%	—	—	72.4%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	35.2%	—	89.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	—	43.7%	—	61.8%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	60.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	99.1%	48.5%	—	88.7%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	97.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	78.4%	—	86.2%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	53.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	64.8%	35.2%	53.2%	40.5%	—	80.0%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	45.9%	62.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	15.7%	45.8%	16.8%	50.0%	—	54.2%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	14.2%	59.3%	7.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	53.5%	82.2%	59.6%	—	58.7%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	29.4%	50.0%	45.5%	—	—	25.7%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	23.0%	39.1%	30.6%	—	73.4%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	84.1%	40.6%	—	—	8.4%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	22.5%	23.2%	20.3%	22.5%	—	67.0%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	28.2%	19.0%	13.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	26.8%	22.7%	37.8%	19.7%	3.5%	56.1%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	33.5%	46.8%	—	—	69.3%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	33.1%	23.0%	7.3%	35.1%	1.2%	57.6%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	25.8%	16.1%	9.7%	10.7%	—	61.1%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	19.1%	11.6%	22.4%	9.4%	72.0%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	41.6%	21.6%	82.5%	42.8%	—	73.7%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	21.7%	14.4%	8.9%	99.6%	6.3%	84.1%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	33.7%	62.7%	99.9%	—	82.6%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	48.7%	52.7%	54.0%	27.3%	59.3%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	15.6%	45.8%	58.3%	—	61.0%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	6.8%	7.8%	47.1%	15.4%	66.9%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	10.5%	6.0%	36.6%	—	48.5%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	7.7%	20.3%	17.1%	7.7%	59.4%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	7.3%	4.5%	12.3%	—	43.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	82.3°F	3.6°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	89%	77.8°F	2.7°F	2026-09-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	80%	78.1°F	4.2°F	2026-09-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	74%	77.1°F	4.1°F	2026-09-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-18 14:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	75.0°F	4.3°F	2026-09-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	16%	71.0°F	3.5°F	2026-09-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260920-TMAX-GE75
Opened Sep 14 · 04:11 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 75°F · Sun Sep 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗