KPIT / Sun Sep 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Sep 19 · 02:23 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

89%

80%

74%

16%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 57.2¢Risks 57.20u

ICONNO 42.8¢Risks 42.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +42.80u · ICON −42.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-19T02:23:42+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-14T04:11:06+00:00	71.8%	81.7%	93.7%	89.4%	66.6%
2026-09-14T04:56:20+00:00	71.8%	81.7%	99.0%	89.4%	66.6%
2026-09-14T05:41:26+00:00	71.8%	81.7%	99.0%	89.4%	66.6%
2026-09-14T06:26:33+00:00	71.8%	81.7%	99.0%	89.4%	66.6%
2026-09-14T07:11:37+00:00	71.8%	81.7%	99.0%	89.4%	66.6%
2026-09-14T07:56:44+00:00	63.1%	81.7%	99.0%	98.6%	27.2%
2026-09-14T08:42:08+00:00	63.1%	81.7%	99.0%	98.6%	27.2%
2026-09-14T09:27:12+00:00	63.1%	81.7%	99.0%	98.6%	27.2%
2026-09-14T10:12:17+00:00	63.1%	81.7%	99.0%	98.6%	27.2%
2026-09-14T10:57:23+00:00	63.1%	90.6%	99.0%	98.6%	27.2%
2026-09-14T11:42:32+00:00	63.1%	90.6%	99.0%	98.6%	27.2%
2026-09-14T12:27:37+00:00	63.1%	90.6%	99.0%	98.6%	27.2%
2026-09-14T13:12:42+00:00	63.1%	90.6%	99.0%	98.6%	27.2%
2026-09-14T13:57:47+00:00	58.1%	90.6%	99.0%	98.6%	27.3%
2026-09-14T14:43:28+00:00	58.1%	90.6%	99.0%	98.6%	27.3%
2026-09-14T15:28:35+00:00	58.1%	90.9%	99.0%	98.6%	27.3%
2026-09-14T16:13:49+00:00	58.1%	90.9%	99.0%	98.6%	27.3%
2026-09-14T16:58:55+00:00	58.1%	90.9%	98.3%	98.6%	27.3%
2026-09-14T17:44:01+00:00	58.1%	90.9%	98.3%	98.6%	27.3%
2026-09-14T18:29:09+00:00	58.1%	90.9%	98.3%	98.6%	27.3%
2026-09-14T19:14:14+00:00	58.1%	90.9%	98.3%	98.6%	27.3%
2026-09-14T19:59:19+00:00	97.8%	90.9%	98.3%	97.5%	95.1%
2026-09-14T20:44:25+00:00	97.8%	90.9%	98.3%	97.5%	95.1%
2026-09-14T21:29:30+00:00	97.8%	90.9%	98.3%	97.5%	95.1%
2026-09-14T22:14:35+00:00	97.8%	90.9%	98.3%	97.5%	95.1%
2026-09-14T22:59:40+00:00	97.8%	90.9%	98.8%	97.5%	95.1%
2026-09-14T23:44:48+00:00	97.8%	90.9%	98.8%	97.5%	95.1%
2026-09-15T00:29:55+00:00	97.8%	90.9%	98.8%	97.5%	95.1%
2026-09-15T01:15:03+00:00	97.8%	90.9%	98.8%	97.5%	95.1%
2026-09-15T02:00:08+00:00	74.9%	90.9%	98.8%	97.5%	95.1%
2026-09-15T02:45:13+00:00	74.9%	90.9%	98.8%	97.5%	95.1%
2026-09-18T03:02:35+00:00	83.5%	81.1%	98.4%	77.4%	26.8%
2026-09-18T03:48:03+00:00	83.5%	81.1%	98.4%	77.4%	26.8%
2026-09-18T04:33:07+00:00	83.5%	81.1%	98.4%	77.4%	18.2%
2026-09-18T05:18:12+00:00	83.5%	81.1%	98.4%	77.4%	18.2%
2026-09-18T06:03:18+00:00	83.5%	81.1%	98.4%	77.4%	18.2%
2026-09-18T06:48:25+00:00	83.5%	81.1%	98.4%	77.4%	18.2%
2026-09-18T07:33:32+00:00	74.6%	81.1%	98.4%	78.7%	18.2%
2026-09-18T08:19:06+00:00	74.6%	81.1%	98.4%	78.7%	18.2%
2026-09-18T09:04:11+00:00	74.6%	81.1%	98.4%	78.7%	18.2%
2026-09-18T09:49:19+00:00	74.6%	81.1%	98.4%	78.7%	18.2%
2026-09-18T10:34:26+00:00	74.6%	81.1%	98.4%	78.7%	18.2%
2026-09-18T11:20:00+00:00	74.6%	88.0%	98.4%	78.7%	18.2%
2026-09-18T12:05:13+00:00	74.6%	88.0%	98.4%	78.7%	18.2%
2026-09-18T12:50:18+00:00	74.6%	88.0%	98.4%	78.7%	18.2%
2026-09-18T13:35:24+00:00	69.9%	88.0%	98.4%	78.7%	18.2%
2026-09-18T14:21:54+00:00	69.1%	88.0%	98.4%	78.7%	18.2%
2026-09-18T15:07:03+00:00	69.1%	88.7%	98.4%	78.7%	18.2%
2026-09-18T15:52:24+00:00	69.1%	88.7%	98.4%	78.7%	18.2%
2026-09-18T16:37:29+00:00	69.1%	88.7%	98.4%	78.7%	16.0%
2026-09-18T17:22:35+00:00	69.1%	88.7%	98.4%	78.7%	16.0%
2026-09-18T18:07:40+00:00	69.1%	88.7%	98.4%	78.7%	16.0%
2026-09-18T18:52:49+00:00	69.1%	88.7%	98.4%	78.7%	16.0%
2026-09-18T19:37:54+00:00	70.7%	88.7%	98.4%	78.7%	16.0%
2026-09-18T20:22:59+00:00	70.7%	88.7%	98.4%	78.7%	16.0%
2026-09-18T21:08:03+00:00	70.7%	88.7%	98.4%	78.7%	16.0%
2026-09-18T21:53:08+00:00	70.7%	88.7%	98.4%	78.7%	16.0%
2026-09-18T22:38:14+00:00	70.7%	88.7%	98.4%	73.5%	16.0%
2026-09-18T23:23:19+00:00	70.8%	88.7%	98.4%	73.5%	16.0%
2026-09-19T00:08:24+00:00	70.8%	88.7%	98.4%	73.5%	16.0%
2026-09-19T00:53:31+00:00	70.8%	88.7%	98.4%	73.5%	16.0%
2026-09-19T01:38:36+00:00	80.4%	88.7%	98.4%	73.5%	16.0%
2026-09-19T02:23:42+00:00	80.4%	88.7%	98.4%	73.5%	16.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	82.3°F	3.6°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	89%	77.8°F	2.7°F	2026-09-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	80%	78.1°F	4.2°F	2026-09-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	74%	77.1°F	4.1°F	2026-09-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-18 14:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	75.0°F	4.3°F	2026-09-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	16%	71.0°F	3.5°F	2026-09-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260920-TMAX-GE75
Opened Sep 14 · 04:11 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 75°F · Sun Sep 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗