KPIT / Sun Sep 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Sep 20 · 07:00 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

74%

43%

37%

<1%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 47.5¢Risks 47.50u

ICONNO 52.5¢Risks 52.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +52.50u · ICON −52.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	17.8%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	—	—	—	15.4%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	27.5%	21.7%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	17.3%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	2.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	0.7%	—	—	18.5%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	—	—	—	23.9%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	20.7%	—	23.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	9.0%	—	—	22.1%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	8.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	6.2%	—	—	60.0%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	82.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	—	30.5%	—	47.9%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	46.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	97.6%	34.3%	—	80.1%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	94.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	65.6%	—	76.1%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	37.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	49.2%	21.8%	37.5%	26.1%	—	67.0%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	9.5%	30.4%	45.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	30.0%	8.3%	33.8%	—	37.7%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	42.4%	3.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	36.3%	68.6%	42.2%	—	41.3%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	16.1%	32.6%	28.7%	—	—	13.5%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	11.5%	23.0%	16.6%	—	56.4%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	69.9%	23.8%	—	—	3.2%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	10.7%	11.1%	9.4%	10.7%	—	48.0%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	8.4%	5.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	10.3%	20.4%	8.6%	1.0%	35.9%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	16.9%	27.1%	—	—	48.9%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	9.9%	2.3%	17.6%	0.3%	36.1%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	6.0%	3.1%	3.5%	—	38.9%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	11.6%	7.2%	3.8%	9.0%	2.9%	50.0%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	8.2%	63.0%	21.6%	—	51.2%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	8.0%	4.6%	2.5%	98.0%	1.6%	64.6%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	14.3%	37.3%	99.2%	—	61.5%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	24.0%	27.3%	28.4%	10.1%	33.1%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	4.3%	21.1%	31.2%	—	33.8%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	1.3%	1.6%	21.2%	4.0%	38.6%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	2.2%	1.0%	13.6%	—	21.3%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	1.3%	5.2%	4.1%	1.3%	29.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.1%	0.6%	2.3%	—	16.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	94%	82.3°F	3.7°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	74%	78.3°F	2.8°F	2026-09-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-20 02:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	77.0°F	2.9°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	43%	75.8°F	3.8°F	2026-09-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	37%	75.1°F	4.1°F	2026-09-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	<1%	68.1°F	3.4°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260920-TMAX-GE77
Opened Sep 16 · 14:54 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 77°F · Sun Sep 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗