KPIT / Sun Sep 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Sep 20 · 07:00 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

74%

43%

37%

<1%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 47.5¢Risks 47.50u

ICONNO 52.5¢Risks 52.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +52.50u · ICON −52.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-20T07:00:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-16T14:54:51+00:00	50.8%	59.4%	91.7%	47.6%	47.5%
2026-09-16T15:40:06+00:00	50.8%	59.4%	91.7%	47.6%	47.5%
2026-09-16T16:25:12+00:00	50.8%	59.4%	91.7%	48.1%	20.5%
2026-09-16T17:10:18+00:00	50.8%	59.4%	93.5%	48.1%	20.5%
2026-09-16T17:55:34+00:00	50.8%	59.4%	93.5%	48.1%	20.5%
2026-09-16T18:40:44+00:00	50.8%	59.4%	93.5%	48.1%	20.5%
2026-09-16T19:25:49+00:00	75.9%	59.4%	93.5%	46.8%	20.5%
2026-09-16T20:10:55+00:00	75.9%	59.4%	93.5%	46.8%	20.5%
2026-09-16T20:56:00+00:00	75.9%	59.4%	93.5%	46.8%	20.5%
2026-09-16T21:41:04+00:00	75.9%	59.4%	93.5%	46.8%	20.5%
2026-09-16T22:26:09+00:00	75.9%	59.4%	93.5%	46.8%	20.5%
2026-09-16T23:11:15+00:00	75.9%	59.4%	95.7%	46.1%	21.1%
2026-09-16T23:56:27+00:00	75.9%	59.4%	95.7%	46.1%	21.1%
2026-09-17T00:41:32+00:00	75.9%	59.4%	95.7%	46.1%	21.1%
2026-09-17T01:26:42+00:00	55.9%	59.4%	95.7%	46.1%	21.1%
2026-09-17T02:12:04+00:00	55.9%	59.4%	95.7%	46.1%	21.1%
2026-09-17T15:00:43+00:00	51.8%	61.6%	91.9%	87.0%	11.7%
2026-09-17T15:46:02+00:00	51.8%	61.6%	91.9%	87.0%	11.7%
2026-09-17T16:31:08+00:00	51.8%	61.6%	91.9%	87.0%	12.2%
2026-09-17T17:16:19+00:00	51.8%	61.6%	93.8%	87.0%	12.2%
2026-09-17T18:01:24+00:00	51.8%	61.6%	93.8%	87.0%	12.2%
2026-09-17T18:46:32+00:00	51.8%	61.6%	93.8%	87.0%	12.2%
2026-09-17T19:31:37+00:00	50.9%	61.6%	93.8%	87.0%	12.2%
2026-09-17T20:16:43+00:00	50.9%	61.6%	93.8%	87.0%	12.2%
2026-09-17T21:01:48+00:00	50.9%	61.6%	93.8%	87.0%	12.2%
2026-09-17T21:46:53+00:00	50.9%	61.6%	93.8%	87.0%	12.2%
2026-09-17T22:31:58+00:00	50.9%	61.6%	93.8%	62.2%	12.2%
2026-09-17T23:17:03+00:00	50.9%	61.6%	94.4%	62.2%	12.8%
2026-09-18T00:02:08+00:00	50.9%	61.6%	94.4%	62.2%	12.8%
2026-09-18T00:47:15+00:00	50.9%	61.6%	94.4%	62.2%	12.8%
2026-09-18T01:32:21+00:00	69.9%	61.6%	94.4%	62.2%	12.8%
2026-09-18T02:17:26+00:00	69.9%	61.6%	94.4%	62.2%	12.8%
2026-09-19T03:08:50+00:00	64.8%	68.3%	94.4%	55.8%	5.9%
2026-09-19T03:54:12+00:00	64.8%	68.3%	94.4%	55.8%	5.9%
2026-09-19T04:39:18+00:00	64.8%	68.3%	94.4%	55.8%	2.7%
2026-09-19T05:24:23+00:00	64.8%	68.3%	94.4%	55.8%	2.7%
2026-09-19T06:09:27+00:00	64.8%	68.3%	94.4%	55.8%	2.7%
2026-09-19T06:54:36+00:00	64.8%	68.3%	94.4%	55.8%	2.7%
2026-09-19T07:39:44+00:00	49.0%	68.3%	94.4%	74.8%	2.7%
2026-09-19T08:25:22+00:00	49.0%	68.3%	94.4%	74.8%	2.7%
2026-09-19T09:10:35+00:00	49.0%	68.3%	94.4%	74.8%	2.7%
2026-09-19T09:55:40+00:00	49.0%	68.3%	94.4%	74.8%	2.7%
2026-09-19T10:40:44+00:00	49.0%	68.3%	94.4%	74.8%	2.7%
2026-09-19T11:25:52+00:00	49.0%	72.7%	94.4%	74.8%	2.7%
2026-09-19T12:11:02+00:00	49.0%	72.7%	94.4%	74.8%	2.7%
2026-09-19T12:56:07+00:00	49.0%	72.7%	94.4%	74.8%	2.7%
2026-09-19T13:41:13+00:00	45.1%	72.7%	94.4%	74.8%	2.7%
2026-09-19T14:27:49+00:00	45.1%	72.7%	94.3%	74.8%	2.7%
2026-09-19T15:12:56+00:00	45.1%	73.8%	94.3%	74.8%	2.7%
2026-09-19T15:58:13+00:00	45.1%	73.8%	94.3%	74.8%	2.7%
2026-09-19T16:43:18+00:00	45.1%	73.8%	94.3%	74.8%	16.1%
2026-09-19T17:28:23+00:00	45.1%	73.8%	94.3%	74.8%	16.1%
2026-09-19T18:13:28+00:00	45.1%	73.8%	94.3%	74.8%	16.1%
2026-09-19T18:58:37+00:00	45.1%	73.8%	94.3%	74.8%	16.1%
2026-09-19T19:43:42+00:00	37.5%	73.8%	94.3%	42.6%	16.1%
2026-09-19T20:28:47+00:00	37.5%	73.8%	94.3%	42.6%	16.1%
2026-09-19T21:13:51+00:00	37.5%	73.8%	94.3%	42.6%	16.1%
2026-09-19T21:58:56+00:00	37.5%	73.8%	94.3%	42.6%	16.1%
2026-09-19T22:44:01+00:00	37.5%	73.8%	94.3%	42.6%	16.1%
2026-09-19T23:29:06+00:00	37.5%	73.8%	94.3%	42.6%	16.1%
2026-09-20T00:14:12+00:00	37.5%	73.8%	94.3%	42.6%	16.1%
2026-09-20T00:59:22+00:00	37.5%	73.8%	94.3%	42.6%	16.1%
2026-09-20T01:44:29+00:00	36.6%	73.8%	94.3%	42.6%	16.1%
2026-09-20T02:29:36+00:00	36.6%	73.8%	94.3%	42.6%	16.1%
2026-09-20T03:14:43+00:00	36.6%	73.8%	94.3%	42.6%	16.1%
2026-09-20T04:00:02+00:00	36.6%	73.8%	94.3%	42.6%	16.1%
2026-09-20T04:45:07+00:00	36.6%	73.8%	94.3%	42.6%	0.7%
2026-09-20T05:30:13+00:00	36.6%	73.8%	94.3%	42.6%	0.7%
2026-09-20T06:15:18+00:00	36.6%	73.8%	94.3%	42.6%	0.7%
2026-09-20T07:00:26+00:00	36.6%	73.8%	94.3%	42.6%	0.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	94%	82.3°F	3.7°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	74%	78.3°F	2.8°F	2026-09-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-20 02:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	77.0°F	2.9°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	43%	75.8°F	3.8°F	2026-09-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	37%	75.1°F	4.1°F	2026-09-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	<1%	68.1°F	3.4°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260920-TMAX-GE77
Opened Sep 16 · 14:54 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 77°F · Sun Sep 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗