KPIT / Sun Sep 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 20 · 02:29 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

48%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 24.1¢Risks 24.10u

ICONNO 75.9¢Risks 75.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +75.90u · ICON −75.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	1.3%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	4.5%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	3.2%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	7.3%	5.1%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	3.4%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	3.5%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	1.0%	—	—	4.0%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	0.5%	—	—	22.3%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	45.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	5.8%	—	13.4%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	12.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	81.1%	6.6%	—	39.9%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	39.4%	—	—	22.8%	—	33.0%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	6.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	2.4%	6.4%	3.3%	—	22.4%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	4.1%	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	3.8%	0.4%	4.7%	—	5.8%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	7.0%	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	4.7%	20.2%	6.5%	—	6.2%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	3.6%	2.8%	—	—	0.7%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	0.5%	1.7%	0.9%	—	11.0%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	18.4%	1.6%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.4%	0.3%	0.3%	—	6.5%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.2%	0.9%	0.2%	0.0%	2.8%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	0.5%	1.4%	—	—	5.2%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.2%	0.0%	0.5%	0.0%	2.3%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	2.4%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	4.0%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.1%	7.0%	0.5%	—	3.7%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	57.4%	0.0%	6.7%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	1.2%	68.7%	—	4.9%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	0.4%	0.5%	0.1%	0.7%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.5%	—	0.6%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.7%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	48%	82.3°F	3.7°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	7%	78.3°F	2.8°F	2026-09-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	4%	77.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-19 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	4%	75.8°F	3.8°F	2026-09-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	4%	75.1°F	4.1°F	2026-09-19 18:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	76.0°F	2.9°F	2026-09-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	<1%	73.0°F	3.5°F	2026-09-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260920-TMAX-GE83
Opened Sep 13 · 07:52 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 83°F+ · Sun Sep 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗