KPIT / Sun Sep 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 20 · 02:29 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

48%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 24.1¢Risks 24.10u

ICONNO 75.9¢Risks 75.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +75.90u · ICON −75.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-20T02:29:36+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-13T07:52:43+00:00	6.9%	10.2%	34.7%	66.4%	34.9%
2026-09-13T08:38:10+00:00	6.9%	10.2%	34.7%	66.4%	34.9%
2026-09-13T09:23:16+00:00	6.9%	10.2%	34.7%	66.4%	34.9%
2026-09-13T10:08:21+00:00	6.9%	10.2%	34.7%	66.4%	34.9%
2026-09-13T10:53:27+00:00	6.9%	25.5%	55.8%	66.4%	34.9%
2026-09-13T11:38:37+00:00	6.9%	25.5%	55.8%	66.4%	34.9%
2026-09-13T12:23:43+00:00	6.9%	25.5%	55.8%	66.4%	34.9%
2026-09-13T13:08:48+00:00	6.9%	25.5%	55.8%	66.4%	34.9%
2026-09-13T13:53:53+00:00	14.8%	25.5%	55.8%	66.4%	34.9%
2026-09-13T14:39:24+00:00	14.8%	25.5%	55.8%	66.4%	34.9%
2026-09-13T15:24:29+00:00	14.8%	27.3%	55.8%	66.4%	34.9%
2026-09-13T16:09:35+00:00	14.8%	27.3%	55.8%	66.4%	34.9%
2026-09-13T16:54:40+00:00	14.8%	27.3%	33.0%	66.4%	34.9%
2026-09-13T17:39:49+00:00	14.8%	27.3%	33.0%	66.4%	34.9%
2026-09-13T18:24:58+00:00	14.8%	27.3%	33.0%	66.4%	34.9%
2026-09-13T19:10:03+00:00	14.8%	27.3%	33.0%	66.4%	34.9%
2026-09-13T19:55:07+00:00	6.0%	27.3%	33.0%	48.1%	34.9%
2026-09-13T20:40:14+00:00	6.0%	27.3%	33.0%	48.1%	34.9%
2026-09-13T21:25:18+00:00	6.0%	27.3%	33.0%	48.1%	34.9%
2026-09-13T22:10:23+00:00	6.0%	27.3%	33.0%	48.1%	34.9%
2026-09-13T22:55:27+00:00	6.0%	27.3%	44.2%	48.1%	34.9%
2026-09-13T23:40:33+00:00	6.0%	27.3%	44.2%	48.1%	34.9%
2026-09-14T00:25:38+00:00	6.0%	27.3%	44.2%	48.1%	34.9%
2026-09-14T01:10:45+00:00	6.0%	27.3%	44.2%	48.1%	34.9%
2026-09-14T01:55:50+00:00	19.3%	27.3%	44.2%	48.1%	34.9%
2026-09-14T02:40:55+00:00	19.3%	27.3%	44.2%	48.1%	34.9%
2026-09-14T03:26:01+00:00	19.3%	27.3%	44.2%	48.1%	34.9%
2026-09-14T04:11:06+00:00	19.3%	27.3%	44.2%	48.1%	34.9%
2026-09-14T04:56:20+00:00	19.3%	27.3%	73.6%	48.1%	34.9%
2026-09-14T05:41:26+00:00	19.3%	27.3%	73.6%	48.1%	34.9%
2026-09-14T06:26:33+00:00	19.3%	27.3%	73.6%	48.1%	34.9%
2026-09-14T07:11:37+00:00	19.3%	27.3%	73.6%	48.1%	34.9%
2026-09-14T07:56:44+00:00	12.4%	27.3%	73.6%	83.6%	3.7%
2026-09-14T08:42:08+00:00	12.4%	27.3%	73.6%	83.6%	3.7%
2026-09-14T09:27:12+00:00	12.4%	27.3%	73.6%	83.6%	3.7%
2026-09-14T10:12:17+00:00	12.4%	27.3%	73.6%	83.6%	3.7%
2026-09-14T10:57:23+00:00	12.4%	30.9%	73.6%	83.6%	3.7%
2026-09-14T11:42:32+00:00	12.4%	30.9%	73.6%	83.6%	3.7%
2026-09-14T12:27:37+00:00	12.4%	30.9%	73.6%	83.6%	3.7%
2026-09-14T13:12:42+00:00	12.4%	30.9%	73.6%	83.6%	3.7%
2026-09-14T13:57:47+00:00	9.9%	30.9%	73.6%	83.6%	3.7%
2026-09-14T14:43:28+00:00	9.9%	30.9%	73.6%	83.6%	3.7%
2026-09-14T15:28:35+00:00	9.9%	32.8%	73.6%	83.6%	3.7%
2026-09-14T16:13:49+00:00	9.9%	32.8%	73.6%	83.6%	3.7%
2026-09-14T16:58:55+00:00	9.9%	32.8%	63.1%	83.6%	3.7%
2026-09-14T17:44:01+00:00	9.9%	32.8%	63.1%	83.6%	3.7%
2026-09-14T18:29:09+00:00	9.9%	32.8%	63.1%	83.6%	3.7%
2026-09-14T19:14:14+00:00	9.9%	32.8%	63.1%	83.6%	3.7%
2026-09-14T19:59:19+00:00	70.0%	32.8%	63.1%	77.4%	68.2%
2026-09-14T20:44:25+00:00	70.0%	32.8%	63.1%	77.4%	68.2%
2026-09-14T21:29:30+00:00	70.0%	32.8%	63.1%	77.4%	68.2%
2026-09-14T22:14:35+00:00	70.0%	32.8%	63.1%	77.4%	68.2%
2026-09-14T22:59:40+00:00	70.0%	32.8%	68.1%	77.4%	68.2%
2026-09-14T23:44:48+00:00	70.0%	32.8%	68.1%	77.4%	68.2%
2026-09-15T00:29:55+00:00	70.0%	32.8%	68.1%	77.4%	68.2%
2026-09-15T01:15:03+00:00	70.0%	32.8%	68.1%	77.4%	68.2%
2026-09-15T02:00:08+00:00	20.5%	32.8%	68.1%	77.4%	68.2%
2026-09-15T02:45:13+00:00	20.5%	32.8%	68.1%	77.4%	68.2%
2026-09-15T03:30:20+00:00	20.5%	32.8%	68.1%	77.4%	68.2%
2026-09-15T04:15:38+00:00	20.5%	32.8%	68.1%	77.4%	68.2%
2026-09-15T05:00:43+00:00	20.5%	32.8%	64.0%	77.4%	68.2%
2026-09-15T05:45:49+00:00	20.5%	32.8%	64.0%	77.4%	68.2%
2026-09-15T06:30:58+00:00	20.5%	32.8%	64.0%	77.4%	68.2%
2026-09-15T07:16:02+00:00	20.5%	32.8%	64.0%	77.4%	68.2%
2026-09-15T08:01:13+00:00	36.6%	32.8%	64.0%	9.4%	9.2%
2026-09-15T08:46:41+00:00	36.6%	32.8%	64.0%	9.4%	9.2%
2026-09-15T09:31:46+00:00	36.6%	32.8%	64.0%	9.4%	9.2%
2026-09-15T10:16:50+00:00	36.6%	32.8%	64.0%	9.4%	9.2%
2026-09-15T11:02:01+00:00	36.6%	24.3%	67.7%	9.4%	9.2%
2026-09-15T11:47:15+00:00	36.6%	24.3%	67.7%	9.4%	9.2%
2026-09-15T12:32:20+00:00	36.6%	24.3%	67.7%	9.4%	9.2%
2026-09-15T13:17:25+00:00	36.6%	24.3%	67.7%	9.4%	9.2%
2026-09-15T14:02:32+00:00	5.6%	24.3%	67.7%	15.9%	9.5%
2026-09-15T14:48:51+00:00	5.6%	24.3%	67.7%	15.9%	9.5%
2026-09-15T15:33:58+00:00	5.6%	24.5%	67.7%	9.4%	9.5%
2026-09-15T16:19:06+00:00	5.6%	24.5%	67.7%	9.4%	9.5%
2026-09-15T17:04:21+00:00	5.6%	24.5%	46.2%	9.4%	9.5%
2026-09-15T17:49:28+00:00	5.6%	24.5%	46.2%	9.4%	9.5%
2026-09-15T18:34:37+00:00	5.6%	24.5%	46.2%	9.4%	9.5%
2026-09-15T19:19:42+00:00	5.6%	24.5%	46.2%	9.4%	9.5%
2026-09-15T20:04:47+00:00	5.0%	24.5%	46.2%	9.4%	14.2%
2026-09-15T20:49:53+00:00	5.0%	24.5%	46.2%	9.4%	14.2%
2026-09-15T21:35:01+00:00	5.0%	24.5%	46.2%	9.4%	14.2%
2026-09-15T22:20:08+00:00	5.0%	24.5%	46.2%	9.4%	14.2%
2026-09-15T23:05:14+00:00	5.0%	24.5%	48.1%	9.2%	14.2%
2026-09-15T23:50:20+00:00	5.0%	24.5%	48.1%	9.2%	14.2%
2026-09-16T00:35:27+00:00	5.0%	24.5%	48.1%	9.2%	14.2%
2026-09-16T01:20:35+00:00	5.0%	24.5%	48.1%	9.2%	14.2%
2026-09-16T02:05:44+00:00	4.4%	24.5%	48.1%	9.2%	14.2%
2026-09-16T02:50:57+00:00	4.4%	24.5%	48.1%	9.2%	14.2%
2026-09-16T03:36:09+00:00	4.4%	24.5%	48.1%	9.2%	14.2%
2026-09-16T04:21:31+00:00	4.4%	24.5%	48.1%	9.2%	14.2%
2026-09-16T05:06:36+00:00	4.4%	24.5%	43.3%	9.2%	14.2%
2026-09-16T05:51:44+00:00	4.4%	24.5%	43.3%	9.2%	14.2%
2026-09-16T06:36:53+00:00	4.4%	24.5%	43.3%	9.2%	14.2%
2026-09-16T07:22:01+00:00	4.3%	24.5%	43.3%	10.7%	9.2%
2026-09-16T08:07:27+00:00	4.3%	24.5%	43.3%	10.7%	9.2%
2026-09-16T08:52:38+00:00	4.3%	24.5%	43.3%	10.7%	9.2%
2026-09-16T09:37:45+00:00	4.3%	24.5%	43.3%	10.7%	9.2%
2026-09-16T10:22:58+00:00	4.3%	24.5%	43.3%	10.7%	9.2%
2026-09-16T11:08:04+00:00	4.3%	8.5%	43.9%	10.7%	9.2%
2026-09-16T11:53:15+00:00	4.3%	8.5%	43.9%	10.7%	9.2%
2026-09-16T12:38:20+00:00	4.3%	8.5%	43.9%	10.7%	9.2%
2026-09-16T13:23:25+00:00	10.5%	8.5%	43.9%	10.7%	9.2%
2026-09-16T14:09:43+00:00	10.5%	8.5%	43.9%	10.7%	9.2%
2026-09-16T14:54:51+00:00	10.5%	9.0%	43.9%	10.7%	9.2%
2026-09-16T15:40:06+00:00	10.5%	9.0%	43.9%	10.7%	9.2%
2026-09-16T16:25:12+00:00	10.5%	9.0%	43.9%	15.7%	1.8%
2026-09-16T17:10:18+00:00	10.5%	9.0%	49.0%	15.7%	1.8%
2026-09-16T17:55:34+00:00	10.5%	9.0%	49.0%	15.7%	1.8%
2026-09-16T18:40:44+00:00	10.5%	9.0%	49.0%	15.7%	1.8%
2026-09-16T19:25:49+00:00	28.3%	9.0%	49.0%	15.0%	1.8%
2026-09-16T20:10:55+00:00	28.3%	9.0%	49.0%	15.0%	1.8%
2026-09-16T20:56:00+00:00	28.3%	9.0%	49.0%	15.0%	1.8%
2026-09-16T21:41:04+00:00	28.3%	9.0%	49.0%	15.0%	1.8%
2026-09-16T22:26:09+00:00	28.3%	9.0%	49.0%	15.0%	1.8%
2026-09-16T23:11:15+00:00	28.2%	9.0%	57.1%	9.9%	1.9%
2026-09-16T23:56:27+00:00	28.2%	9.0%	57.1%	9.9%	1.9%
2026-09-17T00:41:32+00:00	28.2%	9.0%	57.1%	9.9%	1.9%
2026-09-17T01:26:42+00:00	12.9%	9.0%	57.1%	9.9%	1.9%
2026-09-17T02:12:04+00:00	12.9%	9.0%	57.1%	9.9%	1.9%
2026-09-17T02:57:11+00:00	12.9%	9.0%	57.1%	9.9%	1.9%
2026-09-17T03:42:30+00:00	12.9%	9.0%	57.1%	9.9%	1.9%
2026-09-17T04:27:39+00:00	12.9%	9.0%	57.1%	9.9%	0.3%
2026-09-17T05:12:45+00:00	12.9%	9.0%	45.9%	9.9%	0.3%
2026-09-17T05:57:52+00:00	12.9%	9.0%	45.9%	9.9%	0.3%
2026-09-17T06:42:59+00:00	12.9%	9.0%	45.9%	9.9%	0.3%
2026-09-17T07:28:04+00:00	6.8%	9.0%	45.9%	9.9%	0.3%
2026-09-17T08:13:09+00:00	6.8%	9.0%	45.9%	9.9%	0.3%
2026-09-17T08:58:13+00:00	6.8%	9.0%	45.9%	9.9%	0.3%
2026-09-17T09:43:23+00:00	6.8%	9.0%	45.9%	9.9%	0.3%
2026-09-17T10:28:29+00:00	6.8%	9.0%	45.9%	42.1%	0.3%
2026-09-17T11:14:01+00:00	6.8%	7.3%	40.3%	42.1%	0.3%
2026-09-17T11:59:12+00:00	6.8%	7.3%	40.3%	42.1%	0.3%
2026-09-17T12:44:16+00:00	6.8%	7.3%	40.3%	42.1%	0.3%
2026-09-17T13:29:21+00:00	9.5%	7.3%	40.3%	42.1%	0.3%
2026-09-17T14:15:34+00:00	9.4%	7.2%	40.3%	42.1%	0.3%
2026-09-17T15:00:43+00:00	9.4%	7.1%	40.3%	42.1%	0.3%
2026-09-17T15:46:02+00:00	9.4%	7.1%	40.3%	42.1%	0.3%
2026-09-17T16:31:08+00:00	9.4%	7.1%	40.3%	42.1%	0.3%
2026-09-17T17:16:19+00:00	9.4%	7.1%	45.6%	42.1%	0.3%
2026-09-17T18:01:24+00:00	9.4%	7.1%	45.6%	42.1%	0.3%
2026-09-17T18:46:32+00:00	9.4%	7.1%	45.6%	42.1%	0.3%
2026-09-17T19:31:37+00:00	9.0%	7.1%	45.6%	42.1%	0.3%
2026-09-17T20:16:43+00:00	9.0%	7.1%	45.6%	42.1%	0.3%
2026-09-17T21:01:48+00:00	9.0%	7.1%	45.6%	42.1%	0.3%
2026-09-17T21:46:53+00:00	9.0%	7.1%	45.6%	42.1%	0.3%
2026-09-17T22:31:58+00:00	9.0%	7.1%	45.6%	15.4%	0.3%
2026-09-17T23:17:03+00:00	9.0%	7.1%	47.8%	15.4%	0.4%
2026-09-18T00:02:08+00:00	9.0%	7.1%	47.8%	15.4%	0.4%
2026-09-18T00:47:15+00:00	9.0%	7.1%	47.8%	15.4%	0.4%
2026-09-18T01:32:21+00:00	20.1%	7.1%	47.8%	15.4%	0.4%
2026-09-18T02:17:26+00:00	20.1%	7.1%	47.8%	15.4%	0.4%
2026-09-18T03:02:35+00:00	20.1%	7.1%	47.8%	15.4%	0.4%
2026-09-18T03:48:03+00:00	20.1%	7.1%	47.8%	15.4%	0.4%
2026-09-18T04:33:07+00:00	20.1%	7.1%	47.8%	15.4%	0.1%
2026-09-18T05:18:12+00:00	20.1%	7.1%	47.8%	15.4%	0.1%
2026-09-18T06:03:18+00:00	20.1%	7.1%	47.8%	15.4%	0.1%
2026-09-18T06:48:25+00:00	20.1%	7.1%	47.8%	15.4%	0.1%
2026-09-18T07:33:32+00:00	10.9%	7.1%	47.8%	12.8%	0.1%
2026-09-18T08:19:06+00:00	10.9%	7.1%	47.8%	12.8%	0.1%
2026-09-18T09:04:11+00:00	10.9%	7.1%	47.8%	12.8%	0.1%
2026-09-18T09:49:19+00:00	10.9%	7.1%	47.8%	12.8%	0.1%
2026-09-18T10:34:26+00:00	10.9%	7.1%	47.8%	12.8%	0.1%
2026-09-18T11:20:00+00:00	10.9%	3.9%	47.8%	12.8%	0.1%
2026-09-18T12:05:13+00:00	10.9%	3.9%	47.8%	12.8%	0.1%
2026-09-18T12:50:18+00:00	10.9%	3.9%	47.8%	12.8%	0.1%
2026-09-18T13:35:24+00:00	8.5%	3.9%	47.8%	12.8%	0.1%
2026-09-18T14:21:54+00:00	8.1%	3.9%	47.8%	12.8%	0.1%
2026-09-18T15:07:03+00:00	8.1%	4.3%	47.8%	12.8%	0.1%
2026-09-18T15:52:24+00:00	8.1%	4.3%	47.8%	12.8%	0.1%
2026-09-18T16:37:29+00:00	8.1%	4.3%	47.8%	12.8%	0.1%
2026-09-18T17:22:35+00:00	8.1%	4.3%	47.8%	12.8%	0.1%
2026-09-18T18:07:40+00:00	8.1%	4.3%	47.8%	12.8%	0.1%
2026-09-18T18:52:49+00:00	8.1%	4.3%	47.8%	12.8%	0.1%
2026-09-18T19:37:54+00:00	8.8%	4.3%	47.8%	12.8%	0.1%
2026-09-18T20:22:59+00:00	8.8%	4.3%	47.8%	12.8%	0.1%
2026-09-18T21:08:03+00:00	8.8%	4.3%	47.8%	12.8%	0.1%
2026-09-18T21:53:08+00:00	8.8%	4.3%	47.8%	12.8%	0.1%
2026-09-18T22:38:14+00:00	8.8%	4.3%	47.8%	9.6%	0.1%
2026-09-18T23:23:19+00:00	8.8%	4.3%	47.8%	9.6%	0.1%
2026-09-19T00:08:24+00:00	8.8%	4.3%	47.8%	9.6%	0.1%
2026-09-19T00:53:31+00:00	8.8%	4.3%	47.8%	9.6%	0.1%
2026-09-19T01:38:36+00:00	14.8%	4.3%	47.8%	9.6%	0.1%
2026-09-19T02:23:42+00:00	14.8%	4.3%	47.8%	9.6%	0.1%
2026-09-19T03:08:50+00:00	14.8%	4.3%	47.8%	9.6%	0.1%
2026-09-19T03:54:12+00:00	14.8%	4.3%	47.8%	9.6%	0.1%
2026-09-19T04:39:18+00:00	14.8%	4.3%	47.8%	9.6%	0.0%
2026-09-19T05:24:23+00:00	14.8%	4.3%	47.8%	9.6%	0.0%
2026-09-19T06:09:27+00:00	14.8%	4.3%	47.8%	9.6%	0.0%
2026-09-19T06:54:36+00:00	14.8%	4.3%	47.8%	9.6%	0.0%
2026-09-19T07:39:44+00:00	6.8%	4.3%	47.8%	17.5%	0.0%
2026-09-19T08:25:22+00:00	6.8%	4.3%	47.8%	17.5%	0.0%
2026-09-19T09:10:35+00:00	6.8%	4.3%	47.8%	17.5%	0.0%
2026-09-19T09:55:40+00:00	6.8%	4.3%	47.8%	17.5%	0.0%
2026-09-19T10:40:44+00:00	6.8%	4.3%	47.8%	17.5%	0.0%
2026-09-19T11:25:52+00:00	6.8%	6.4%	47.8%	17.5%	0.0%
2026-09-19T12:11:02+00:00	6.8%	6.4%	47.8%	17.5%	0.0%
2026-09-19T12:56:07+00:00	6.8%	6.4%	47.8%	17.5%	0.0%
2026-09-19T13:41:13+00:00	5.6%	6.4%	47.8%	17.5%	0.0%
2026-09-19T14:27:49+00:00	5.6%	6.4%	47.8%	17.5%	0.0%
2026-09-19T15:12:56+00:00	5.6%	6.8%	47.8%	17.5%	0.0%
2026-09-19T15:58:13+00:00	5.6%	6.8%	47.8%	17.5%	0.0%
2026-09-19T16:43:18+00:00	5.6%	6.8%	47.8%	17.5%	0.4%
2026-09-19T17:28:23+00:00	5.6%	6.8%	47.8%	17.5%	0.4%
2026-09-19T18:13:28+00:00	5.6%	6.8%	47.8%	17.5%	0.4%
2026-09-19T18:58:37+00:00	5.6%	6.8%	47.8%	17.5%	0.4%
2026-09-19T19:43:42+00:00	3.7%	6.8%	47.8%	3.7%	0.4%
2026-09-19T20:28:47+00:00	3.7%	6.8%	47.8%	3.7%	0.4%
2026-09-19T21:13:51+00:00	3.7%	6.8%	47.8%	3.7%	0.4%
2026-09-19T21:58:56+00:00	3.7%	6.8%	47.8%	3.7%	0.4%
2026-09-19T22:44:01+00:00	3.7%	6.8%	47.8%	3.7%	0.4%
2026-09-19T23:29:06+00:00	3.7%	6.8%	47.8%	3.7%	0.4%
2026-09-20T00:14:12+00:00	3.7%	6.8%	47.8%	3.7%	0.4%
2026-09-20T00:59:22+00:00	3.7%	6.8%	47.8%	3.7%	0.4%
2026-09-20T01:44:29+00:00	3.5%	6.8%	47.8%	3.7%	0.4%
2026-09-20T02:29:36+00:00	3.5%	6.8%	47.8%	3.7%	0.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	48%	82.3°F	3.7°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	7%	78.3°F	2.8°F	2026-09-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	4%	77.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-19 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	4%	75.8°F	3.8°F	2026-09-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	4%	75.1°F	4.1°F	2026-09-19 18:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	76.0°F	2.9°F	2026-09-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	<1%	73.0°F	3.5°F	2026-09-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260920-TMAX-GE83
Opened Sep 13 · 07:52 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 83°F+ · Sun Sep 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗