KPIT / Mon Sep 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Sep 17 · 03:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

50%

11%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 25.4¢Risks 25.40u

AIFSNO 74.6¢Risks 74.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +74.60u · AIFS −74.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	2.0%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	3.1%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	2.8%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	55.6%	—	0.0%	—	—	16.4%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	69.4%	—	—	22.3%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	14.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	1.7%	—	4.4%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	69.0%	11.7%	—	18.4%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	58.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.2%	69.7%	0.8%	—	8.7%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	37.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	16.4%	17.4%	4.3%	—	4.1%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	31.5%	0.1%	0.5%	—	1.5%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	5.4%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	1.7%	—	0.5%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	50%	82.5°F	5.9°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	16%	76.0°F	6.6°F	2026-09-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	11%	75.9°F	5.3°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	6%	75.9°F	4.2°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	73.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-17 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	1%	69.2°F	5.8°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	<1%	70.5°F	5.0°F	2026-09-16 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260921-TMAX-GE83
Opened Sep 14 · 07:56 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 83°F+ · Mon Sep 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗