KPIT / Mon Sep 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Sep 17 · 03:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

50%

11%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 25.4¢Risks 25.40u

AIFSNO 74.6¢Risks 74.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +74.60u · AIFS −74.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-17T03:42:30+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-14T07:56:44+00:00	3.3%	24.5%	27.7%	60.9%	6.5%
2026-09-14T08:42:08+00:00	3.3%	24.5%	27.7%	60.9%	6.5%
2026-09-14T09:27:12+00:00	3.3%	24.5%	27.7%	60.9%	6.5%
2026-09-14T10:12:17+00:00	3.3%	24.5%	27.7%	60.9%	6.5%
2026-09-14T10:57:23+00:00	3.3%	34.5%	27.7%	60.9%	6.5%
2026-09-14T11:42:32+00:00	3.3%	34.5%	27.7%	60.9%	6.5%
2026-09-14T12:27:37+00:00	3.3%	34.5%	27.7%	60.9%	6.5%
2026-09-14T13:12:42+00:00	3.3%	34.5%	27.7%	60.9%	6.5%
2026-09-14T13:57:47+00:00	0.7%	34.5%	27.8%	60.8%	6.5%
2026-09-14T14:43:28+00:00	0.7%	34.5%	27.8%	60.8%	6.5%
2026-09-14T15:28:35+00:00	0.7%	36.3%	27.8%	60.8%	6.5%
2026-09-14T16:13:49+00:00	0.7%	36.3%	27.8%	60.8%	6.5%
2026-09-14T16:58:55+00:00	0.7%	36.3%	8.0%	60.8%	6.5%
2026-09-14T17:44:01+00:00	0.7%	36.3%	8.0%	60.8%	6.5%
2026-09-14T18:29:09+00:00	0.7%	36.3%	8.0%	60.8%	6.5%
2026-09-14T19:14:14+00:00	0.7%	36.3%	8.0%	60.8%	6.5%
2026-09-14T19:59:19+00:00	1.6%	36.3%	8.0%	5.2%	62.4%
2026-09-14T20:44:25+00:00	1.6%	36.3%	8.0%	5.2%	62.4%
2026-09-14T21:29:30+00:00	1.6%	36.3%	8.0%	5.2%	62.4%
2026-09-14T22:14:35+00:00	1.6%	36.3%	8.0%	5.2%	62.4%
2026-09-14T22:59:40+00:00	1.6%	36.3%	10.8%	5.2%	62.4%
2026-09-14T23:44:48+00:00	1.6%	36.3%	10.8%	5.2%	62.4%
2026-09-15T00:29:55+00:00	1.6%	36.3%	10.8%	5.2%	62.4%
2026-09-15T01:15:03+00:00	1.6%	36.3%	10.8%	5.2%	62.4%
2026-09-15T02:00:08+00:00	0.8%	36.3%	10.8%	5.2%	62.4%
2026-09-15T02:45:13+00:00	0.8%	36.3%	10.8%	5.2%	62.4%
2026-09-15T03:30:20+00:00	0.8%	36.3%	10.8%	5.2%	62.4%
2026-09-15T04:15:38+00:00	0.8%	36.3%	10.8%	5.2%	62.4%
2026-09-15T05:00:43+00:00	0.8%	36.3%	15.2%	5.2%	62.4%
2026-09-15T05:45:49+00:00	0.8%	36.3%	15.2%	5.2%	62.4%
2026-09-15T06:30:58+00:00	0.8%	36.3%	15.2%	5.2%	62.4%
2026-09-15T07:16:02+00:00	0.8%	36.3%	15.2%	5.2%	62.4%
2026-09-15T08:01:13+00:00	2.7%	36.3%	15.2%	64.7%	23.0%
2026-09-15T08:46:41+00:00	2.7%	36.3%	15.2%	64.7%	23.0%
2026-09-15T09:31:46+00:00	2.7%	36.3%	15.2%	64.7%	23.0%
2026-09-15T10:16:50+00:00	2.7%	36.3%	15.2%	64.7%	23.0%
2026-09-15T11:02:01+00:00	2.7%	20.0%	15.2%	64.7%	23.0%
2026-09-15T11:47:15+00:00	2.7%	20.0%	15.2%	64.7%	23.0%
2026-09-15T12:32:20+00:00	2.7%	20.0%	15.2%	64.7%	23.0%
2026-09-15T13:17:25+00:00	2.7%	20.0%	15.2%	64.7%	23.0%
2026-09-15T14:02:32+00:00	1.0%	20.0%	15.2%	61.3%	23.5%
2026-09-15T14:48:51+00:00	1.0%	20.0%	15.2%	61.3%	23.5%
2026-09-15T15:33:58+00:00	1.0%	19.9%	15.2%	64.7%	23.5%
2026-09-15T16:19:06+00:00	1.0%	19.9%	15.2%	64.7%	23.5%
2026-09-15T17:04:21+00:00	1.0%	19.9%	4.0%	64.7%	23.5%
2026-09-15T17:49:28+00:00	1.0%	19.9%	4.0%	64.7%	23.5%
2026-09-15T18:34:37+00:00	1.0%	19.9%	4.0%	64.7%	23.5%
2026-09-15T19:19:42+00:00	1.0%	19.9%	4.0%	64.7%	23.5%
2026-09-15T20:04:47+00:00	3.1%	19.9%	4.0%	64.7%	3.8%
2026-09-15T20:49:53+00:00	3.1%	19.9%	4.0%	64.7%	3.8%
2026-09-15T21:35:01+00:00	3.1%	19.9%	4.0%	64.7%	3.8%
2026-09-15T22:20:08+00:00	3.1%	19.9%	4.0%	64.7%	3.8%
2026-09-15T23:05:14+00:00	3.1%	19.9%	5.9%	22.1%	3.8%
2026-09-15T23:50:20+00:00	3.1%	19.9%	5.9%	22.1%	3.8%
2026-09-16T00:35:27+00:00	3.1%	19.9%	5.9%	22.1%	3.8%
2026-09-16T01:20:35+00:00	3.1%	19.9%	5.9%	22.1%	3.8%
2026-09-16T02:05:44+00:00	3.5%	19.9%	5.9%	22.1%	3.8%
2026-09-16T02:50:57+00:00	3.5%	19.9%	5.9%	22.1%	3.8%
2026-09-16T03:36:09+00:00	3.5%	19.9%	5.9%	22.1%	3.8%
2026-09-16T04:21:31+00:00	3.5%	19.9%	5.9%	22.1%	3.8%
2026-09-16T05:06:36+00:00	3.5%	19.9%	10.5%	22.1%	3.8%
2026-09-16T05:51:44+00:00	3.5%	19.9%	10.5%	22.1%	3.8%
2026-09-16T06:36:53+00:00	3.5%	19.9%	10.5%	22.1%	3.8%
2026-09-16T07:22:01+00:00	4.2%	19.9%	10.5%	1.9%	32.3%
2026-09-16T08:07:27+00:00	4.2%	19.9%	10.5%	1.9%	32.3%
2026-09-16T08:52:38+00:00	4.2%	19.9%	10.5%	1.9%	32.3%
2026-09-16T09:37:45+00:00	4.2%	19.9%	10.5%	1.9%	32.3%
2026-09-16T10:22:58+00:00	4.2%	19.9%	10.5%	1.9%	32.3%
2026-09-16T11:08:04+00:00	4.2%	9.5%	7.4%	1.9%	32.3%
2026-09-16T11:53:15+00:00	4.2%	9.5%	7.4%	1.9%	32.3%
2026-09-16T12:38:20+00:00	4.2%	9.5%	7.4%	1.9%	32.3%
2026-09-16T13:23:25+00:00	0.9%	9.5%	7.4%	1.9%	32.3%
2026-09-16T14:09:43+00:00	0.9%	9.5%	7.4%	1.9%	32.3%
2026-09-16T14:54:51+00:00	0.9%	10.7%	7.4%	1.9%	32.3%
2026-09-16T15:40:06+00:00	0.9%	10.7%	7.4%	1.9%	32.3%
2026-09-16T16:25:12+00:00	0.9%	10.7%	7.4%	5.3%	49.3%
2026-09-16T17:10:18+00:00	0.9%	10.7%	4.4%	5.3%	49.3%
2026-09-16T17:55:34+00:00	0.9%	10.7%	4.4%	5.3%	49.3%
2026-09-16T18:40:44+00:00	0.9%	10.7%	4.4%	5.3%	49.3%
2026-09-16T19:25:49+00:00	0.5%	10.7%	4.4%	3.8%	49.3%
2026-09-16T20:10:55+00:00	0.5%	10.7%	4.4%	3.8%	49.3%
2026-09-16T20:56:00+00:00	0.5%	10.7%	4.4%	3.8%	49.3%
2026-09-16T21:41:04+00:00	0.5%	10.7%	4.4%	3.8%	49.3%
2026-09-16T22:26:09+00:00	0.5%	10.7%	4.4%	3.8%	49.3%
2026-09-16T23:11:15+00:00	0.5%	10.7%	5.6%	1.1%	50.0%
2026-09-16T23:56:27+00:00	0.5%	10.7%	5.6%	1.1%	50.0%
2026-09-17T00:41:32+00:00	0.5%	10.7%	5.6%	1.1%	50.0%
2026-09-17T01:26:42+00:00	0.8%	10.7%	5.6%	1.1%	50.0%
2026-09-17T02:12:04+00:00	0.8%	10.7%	5.6%	1.1%	50.0%
2026-09-17T02:57:11+00:00	0.8%	10.7%	5.6%	1.1%	50.0%
2026-09-17T03:42:30+00:00	0.8%	10.7%	5.6%	1.1%	50.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	50%	82.5°F	5.9°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	16%	76.0°F	6.6°F	2026-09-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	11%	75.9°F	5.3°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	6%	75.9°F	4.2°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	73.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-17 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	1%	69.2°F	5.8°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	<1%	70.5°F	5.0°F	2026-09-16 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260921-TMAX-GE83
Opened Sep 14 · 07:56 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 83°F+ · Mon Sep 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗