KPIT / Tue Sep 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST87%Sep 16 · 02:50 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

93%

83%

68%

63%

Consensus

87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 80.5¢Risks 80.55u

ICONNO 19.4¢Risks 19.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +19.45u · ICON −19.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	98.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	61.6%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	—	—	—	57.1%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	—	—	—	54.5%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	76.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	73.6%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	82.3%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	79.4%	—	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	91.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	64.7%	—	95.2%	—	—	65.9%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	48.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	—	—	—	39.7%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	2.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	97.6%	—	—	75.1%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	96.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	98.9%	19.9%	—	88.8%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	36.6%	—	87.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	60.8%	67.7%	96.5%	88.0%	—	80.1%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	69.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	38.7%	86.7%	17.9%	64.2%	—	53.0%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	58.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	56.4%	17.4%	85.5%	—	41.3%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	20.7%	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	21.3%	21.9%	31.5%	23.8%	—	23.2%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	20.1%	79.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	8.0%	17.2%	9.0%	60.4%	—	15.6%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	11.6%	24.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	7.6%	5.8%	39.1%	—	8.6%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	2.9%	2.4%	—	—	0.9%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	15.3%	11.1%	51.0%	—	11.6%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	4.7%	3.2%	—	—	6.6%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	6.7%	4.4%	12.8%	—	9.4%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	7.6%	0.7%	—	—	1.5%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	3.8%	0.2%	2.6%	—	5.3%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	1.4%	0.1%	0.5%	—	6.0%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.7%	0.1%	0.5%	0.3%	1.5%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.3%	0.2%	1.5%	—	1.6%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	10.6%	0.1%	0.9%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%	1.6%	—	1.3%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	1.7%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1.4%	—	0.3%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	98%	82.6°F	6.2°F	2026-09-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	93%	77.7°F	5.5°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	83%	74.0°F	4.8°F	2026-09-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	68%	72.1°F	5.5°F	2026-09-15 18:00	Pending
ICON	63%	72.7°F	9.8°F	2026-09-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	70.4°F	6.8°F	2026-09-15 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260922-TMAX-GE70
Opened Sep 15 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 70°F · Tue Sep 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗