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KPIT / Tue Sep 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST87%Sep 16 · 02:50 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
98%
EPS
93%
WN2
83%
AIFS
68%
ICON
63%
Consensus
87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 80.5¢Risks 80.55u
VS
ICONNO 19.4¢Risks 19.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +19.45u · ICON −19.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 78.6% · 2026-09-15T11:02:01+00:00AIFS Single: 78.6% · 2026-09-15T11:47:15+00:00AIFS Single: 78.6% · 2026-09-15T12:32:20+00:00AIFS Single: 78.6% · 2026-09-15T13:17:25+00:00AIFS Single: 33.9% · 2026-09-15T14:02:32+00:00AIFS Single: 33.9% · 2026-09-15T14:48:51+00:00AIFS Single: 33.9% · 2026-09-15T15:33:58+00:00AIFS Single: 33.9% · 2026-09-15T16:19:06+00:00AIFS Single: 33.9% · 2026-09-15T17:04:21+00:00AIFS Single: 33.9% · 2026-09-15T17:49:28+00:00AIFS Single: 33.9% · 2026-09-15T18:34:37+00:00AIFS Single: 33.9% · 2026-09-15T19:19:42+00:00AIFS Single: 73.6% · 2026-09-15T20:04:47+00:00AIFS Single: 73.6% · 2026-09-15T20:49:53+00:00AIFS Single: 73.6% · 2026-09-15T21:35:01+00:00AIFS Single: 73.6% · 2026-09-15T22:20:08+00:00AIFS Single: 73.6% · 2026-09-15T23:05:14+00:00AIFS Single: 73.6% · 2026-09-15T23:50:20+00:00AIFS Single: 73.6% · 2026-09-16T00:35:27+00:00AIFS Single: 73.6% · 2026-09-16T01:20:35+00:00AIFS Single: 68.0% · 2026-09-16T02:05:44+00:00AIFS Single: 68.0% · 2026-09-16T02:50:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.0% · 2026-09-15T11:02:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.0% · 2026-09-15T11:47:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.0% · 2026-09-15T12:32:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.0% · 2026-09-15T13:17:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.0% · 2026-09-15T14:02:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.0% · 2026-09-15T14:48:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.2% · 2026-09-15T15:33:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.2% · 2026-09-15T16:19:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.2% · 2026-09-15T17:04:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.2% · 2026-09-15T17:49:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.2% · 2026-09-15T18:34:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.2% · 2026-09-15T19:19:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.2% · 2026-09-15T20:04:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.2% · 2026-09-15T20:49:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.2% · 2026-09-15T21:35:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.2% · 2026-09-15T22:20:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.2% · 2026-09-15T23:05:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.2% · 2026-09-15T23:50:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.2% · 2026-09-16T00:35:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.2% · 2026-09-16T01:20:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.2% · 2026-09-16T02:05:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.2% · 2026-09-16T02:50:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.0% · 2026-09-15T11:02:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.0% · 2026-09-15T11:47:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.0% · 2026-09-15T12:32:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.0% · 2026-09-15T13:17:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.0% · 2026-09-15T14:02:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.0% · 2026-09-15T14:48:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.0% · 2026-09-15T15:33:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.0% · 2026-09-15T16:19:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.0% · 2026-09-15T17:04:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.0% · 2026-09-15T17:49:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.0% · 2026-09-15T18:34:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.0% · 2026-09-15T19:19:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.0% · 2026-09-15T20:04:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.0% · 2026-09-15T20:49:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.0% · 2026-09-15T21:35:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.0% · 2026-09-15T22:20:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.8% · 2026-09-15T23:05:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.8% · 2026-09-15T23:50:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.8% · 2026-09-16T00:35:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.8% · 2026-09-16T01:20:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.8% · 2026-09-16T02:05:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.8% · 2026-09-16T02:50:57+00:00IFS HRES: 98.1% · 2026-09-15T11:02:01+00:00IFS HRES: 98.1% · 2026-09-15T11:47:15+00:00IFS HRES: 98.1% · 2026-09-15T12:32:20+00:00IFS HRES: 98.1% · 2026-09-15T13:17:25+00:00IFS HRES: 94.6% · 2026-09-15T14:02:32+00:00IFS HRES: 94.6% · 2026-09-15T14:48:51+00:00IFS HRES: 98.1% · 2026-09-15T15:33:58+00:00IFS HRES: 98.1% · 2026-09-15T16:19:06+00:00IFS HRES: 98.1% · 2026-09-15T17:04:21+00:00IFS HRES: 98.1% · 2026-09-15T17:49:28+00:00IFS HRES: 98.1% · 2026-09-15T18:34:37+00:00IFS HRES: 98.1% · 2026-09-15T19:19:42+00:00IFS HRES: 98.1% · 2026-09-15T20:04:47+00:00IFS HRES: 98.1% · 2026-09-15T20:49:53+00:00IFS HRES: 98.1% · 2026-09-15T21:35:01+00:00IFS HRES: 98.1% · 2026-09-15T22:20:08+00:00IFS HRES: 98.3% · 2026-09-15T23:05:14+00:00IFS HRES: 98.3% · 2026-09-15T23:50:20+00:00IFS HRES: 98.3% · 2026-09-16T00:35:27+00:00IFS HRES: 98.3% · 2026-09-16T01:20:35+00:00IFS HRES: 98.3% · 2026-09-16T02:05:44+00:00IFS HRES: 98.3% · 2026-09-16T02:50:57+00:00ICON: 66.6% · 2026-09-15T11:02:01+00:00ICON: 66.6% · 2026-09-15T11:47:15+00:00ICON: 66.6% · 2026-09-15T12:32:20+00:00ICON: 66.6% · 2026-09-15T13:17:25+00:00ICON: 67.0% · 2026-09-15T14:02:32+00:00ICON: 67.0% · 2026-09-15T14:48:51+00:00ICON: 67.0% · 2026-09-15T15:33:58+00:00ICON: 67.0% · 2026-09-15T16:19:06+00:00ICON: 67.0% · 2026-09-15T17:04:21+00:00ICON: 67.0% · 2026-09-15T17:49:28+00:00ICON: 67.0% · 2026-09-15T18:34:37+00:00ICON: 67.0% · 2026-09-15T19:19:42+00:00ICON: 62.8% · 2026-09-15T20:04:47+00:00ICON: 62.8% · 2026-09-15T20:49:53+00:00ICON: 62.8% · 2026-09-15T21:35:01+00:00ICON: 62.8% · 2026-09-15T22:20:08+00:00ICON: 62.8% · 2026-09-15T23:05:14+00:00ICON: 62.8% · 2026-09-15T23:50:20+00:00ICON: 62.8% · 2026-09-16T00:35:27+00:00ICON: 62.8% · 2026-09-16T01:20:35+00:00ICON: 62.8% · 2026-09-16T02:05:44+00:00ICON: 62.8% · 2026-09-16T02:50:57+00:0009-15 11:0209-15 19:1909-16 02:50
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-16T02:50:57+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-15T11:02:01+00:0078.6%92.0%90.0%98.1%66.6%
2026-09-15T11:47:15+00:0078.6%92.0%90.0%98.1%66.6%
2026-09-15T12:32:20+00:0078.6%92.0%90.0%98.1%66.6%
2026-09-15T13:17:25+00:0078.6%92.0%90.0%98.1%66.6%
2026-09-15T14:02:32+00:0033.9%92.0%90.0%94.6%67.0%
2026-09-15T14:48:51+00:0033.9%92.0%90.0%94.6%67.0%
2026-09-15T15:33:58+00:0033.9%93.2%90.0%98.1%67.0%
2026-09-15T16:19:06+00:0033.9%93.2%90.0%98.1%67.0%
2026-09-15T17:04:21+00:0033.9%93.2%80.0%98.1%67.0%
2026-09-15T17:49:28+00:0033.9%93.2%80.0%98.1%67.0%
2026-09-15T18:34:37+00:0033.9%93.2%80.0%98.1%67.0%
2026-09-15T19:19:42+00:0033.9%93.2%80.0%98.1%67.0%
2026-09-15T20:04:47+00:0073.6%93.2%80.0%98.1%62.8%
2026-09-15T20:49:53+00:0073.6%93.2%80.0%98.1%62.8%
2026-09-15T21:35:01+00:0073.6%93.2%80.0%98.1%62.8%
2026-09-15T22:20:08+00:0073.6%93.2%80.0%98.1%62.8%
2026-09-15T23:05:14+00:0073.6%93.2%82.8%98.3%62.8%
2026-09-15T23:50:20+00:0073.6%93.2%82.8%98.3%62.8%
2026-09-16T00:35:27+00:0073.6%93.2%82.8%98.3%62.8%
2026-09-16T01:20:35+00:0073.6%93.2%82.8%98.3%62.8%
2026-09-16T02:05:44+00:0068.0%93.2%82.8%98.3%62.8%
2026-09-16T02:50:57+00:0068.0%93.2%82.8%98.3%62.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES98%82.6°F6.2°F2026-09-15 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble93%77.7°F5.5°F2026-09-15 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 283%74.0°F4.8°F2026-09-15 12:00Pending
AIFS Single68%72.1°F5.5°F2026-09-15 18:00Pending
ICON63%72.7°F9.8°F2026-09-15 12:00Pending
National Blend55%70.4°F6.8°F2026-09-15 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260922-TMAX-GE70
Opened Sep 15 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 70°F · Tue Sep 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗