KPIT / Tue Sep 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST79%Sep 15 · 10:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

83%

67%

67%

59%

Consensus

79%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 77.5¢Risks 77.45u

ICONNO 22.6¢Risks 22.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +22.55u · ICON −22.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	96.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	—	—	—	46.2%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	31.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	43.2%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	66.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	60.4%	—	—	—	—	63.2%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	71.3%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	86.7%	—	85.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	52.5%	—	91.2%	—	—	53.8%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	36.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	—	—	—	27.8%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	36.1%	—	95.0%	—	—	63.3%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	93.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	29.8%	—	97.4%	11.5%	—	80.6%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	79.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	46.4%	53.6%	92.6%	79.0%	—	68.3%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	55.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	76.6%	9.7%	49.2%	—	38.0%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	43.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	40.5%	9.0%	74.5%	—	26.8%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	11.0%	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	11.6%	18.4%	12.9%	—	12.5%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	10.3%	65.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	8.3%	3.8%	43.0%	—	7.3%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	5.0%	13.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	2.9%	2.1%	23.0%	—	3.4%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	0.9%	0.7%	—	—	0.2%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	6.5%	4.4%	32.1%	—	4.6%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	1.5%	0.9%	—	—	2.2%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	2.2%	1.3%	4.9%	—	3.4%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	2.5%	0.1%	—	—	0.3%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.0%	0.0%	0.6%	—	1.5%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%	0.1%	—	1.7%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.3%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	—	0.3%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.0%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	—	0.2%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	—	0.0%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	96%	82.4°F	6.2°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	83%	77.6°F	6.3°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	67%	73.9°F	5.5°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	67%	73.7°F	5.1°F	2026-09-14 18:00	Pending
ICON	59%	73.7°F	9.8°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	72.4°F	7.4°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260922-TMAX-GE72
Opened Sep 15 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 72°F · Tue Sep 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗