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KPIT / Tue Sep 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST79%Sep 15 · 10:16 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
96%
EPS
83%
AIFS
67%
WN2
67%
ICON
59%
Consensus
79%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 77.5¢Risks 77.45u
VS
ICONNO 22.6¢Risks 22.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +22.55u · ICON −22.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 66.7% · 2026-09-15T08:01:13+00:00AIFS Single: 66.7% · 2026-09-15T08:46:41+00:00AIFS Single: 66.7% · 2026-09-15T09:31:46+00:00AIFS Single: 66.7% · 2026-09-15T10:16:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.4% · 2026-09-15T08:01:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.4% · 2026-09-15T08:46:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.4% · 2026-09-15T09:31:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.4% · 2026-09-15T10:16:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 66.7% · 2026-09-15T08:01:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 66.7% · 2026-09-15T08:46:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 66.7% · 2026-09-15T09:31:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 66.7% · 2026-09-15T10:16:50+00:00IFS HRES: 96.0% · 2026-09-15T08:01:13+00:00IFS HRES: 96.0% · 2026-09-15T08:46:41+00:00IFS HRES: 96.0% · 2026-09-15T09:31:46+00:00IFS HRES: 96.0% · 2026-09-15T10:16:50+00:00ICON: 58.9% · 2026-09-15T08:01:13+00:00ICON: 58.9% · 2026-09-15T08:46:41+00:00ICON: 58.9% · 2026-09-15T09:31:46+00:00ICON: 58.9% · 2026-09-15T10:16:50+00:0009-15 08:0109-15 09:3109-15 10:16
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-15T10:16:50+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-15T08:01:13+00:0066.7%83.4%66.7%96.0%58.9%
2026-09-15T08:46:41+00:0066.7%83.4%66.7%96.0%58.9%
2026-09-15T09:31:46+00:0066.7%83.4%66.7%96.0%58.9%
2026-09-15T10:16:50+00:0066.7%83.4%66.7%96.0%58.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES96%82.4°F6.2°F2026-09-15 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble83%77.6°F6.3°F2026-09-14 00:00Pending
AIFS Single67%73.9°F5.5°F2026-09-15 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 267%73.7°F5.1°F2026-09-14 18:00Pending
ICON59%73.7°F9.8°F2026-09-15 00:00Pending
National Blend55%72.4°F7.4°F2026-09-15 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260922-TMAX-GE72
Opened Sep 15 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 72°F · Tue Sep 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗