KPIT / Wed Sep 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 17 · 10:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

13%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 6.3¢Risks 3.17u

AIFSNO 93.7¢Risks 46.83u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +46.83u · AIFS −46.83u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	6.5%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	43.4%	—	—	—	—	10.2%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	38.1%	—	2.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	4.7%	—	—	5.3%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	7.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	25.9%	—	—	5.8%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	21.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	4.0%	—	—	13.7%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	35.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	1.2%	—	—	5.6%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.9%	10.5%	0.5%	—	1.3%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	5.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.9%	1.8%	0.8%	—	0.5%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.2%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%	—	0.0%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	13%	74.0°F	6.6°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	13%	75.0°F	5.7°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
ICON	8%	71.8°F	6.8°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	7%	73.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-17 02:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	71.9°F	4.8°F	2026-09-16 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	2%	67.4°F	6.6°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	<1%	61.5°F	5.3°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260923-TMAX-GE82
Opened Sep 16 · 07:22 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 82°F+ · Wed Sep 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗