KPIT / Wed Sep 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 17 · 10:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

13%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 6.3¢Risks 3.17u

AIFSNO 93.7¢Risks 46.83u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +46.83u · AIFS −46.83u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-17T10:28:29+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-16T07:22:01+00:00	1.7%	6.2%	9.4%	5.5%	19.3%
2026-09-16T08:07:27+00:00	1.7%	6.2%	9.4%	5.5%	19.3%
2026-09-16T08:52:38+00:00	1.7%	6.2%	9.4%	5.5%	19.3%
2026-09-16T09:37:45+00:00	1.7%	6.2%	9.4%	5.5%	19.3%
2026-09-16T10:22:58+00:00	1.7%	6.2%	9.4%	5.5%	19.3%
2026-09-16T11:08:04+00:00	1.7%	11.3%	6.3%	5.5%	19.3%
2026-09-16T11:53:15+00:00	1.7%	11.3%	6.3%	5.5%	19.3%
2026-09-16T12:38:20+00:00	1.7%	11.3%	6.3%	5.5%	19.3%
2026-09-16T13:23:25+00:00	1.1%	11.3%	6.3%	5.5%	19.3%
2026-09-16T14:09:43+00:00	1.1%	11.3%	6.3%	5.5%	19.3%
2026-09-16T14:54:51+00:00	1.1%	12.7%	6.3%	5.5%	19.3%
2026-09-16T15:40:06+00:00	1.1%	12.7%	6.3%	5.5%	19.3%
2026-09-16T16:25:12+00:00	1.1%	12.7%	6.3%	11.3%	21.6%
2026-09-16T17:10:18+00:00	1.1%	12.7%	4.5%	11.3%	21.6%
2026-09-16T17:55:34+00:00	1.1%	12.7%	4.5%	11.3%	21.6%
2026-09-16T18:40:44+00:00	1.1%	12.7%	4.5%	11.3%	21.6%
2026-09-16T19:25:49+00:00	1.8%	12.7%	4.5%	2.5%	21.6%
2026-09-16T20:10:55+00:00	1.8%	12.7%	4.5%	2.5%	21.6%
2026-09-16T20:56:00+00:00	1.8%	12.7%	4.5%	2.5%	21.6%
2026-09-16T21:41:04+00:00	1.8%	12.7%	4.5%	2.5%	21.6%
2026-09-16T22:26:09+00:00	1.8%	12.7%	4.5%	2.5%	21.6%
2026-09-16T23:11:15+00:00	1.8%	12.7%	2.6%	0.5%	21.6%
2026-09-16T23:56:27+00:00	1.8%	12.7%	2.6%	0.5%	21.6%
2026-09-17T00:41:32+00:00	1.8%	12.7%	2.6%	0.5%	21.6%
2026-09-17T01:26:42+00:00	0.6%	12.7%	2.6%	0.5%	21.6%
2026-09-17T02:12:04+00:00	0.6%	12.7%	2.6%	0.5%	21.6%
2026-09-17T02:57:12+00:00	0.6%	12.7%	2.6%	0.5%	21.6%
2026-09-17T03:42:30+00:00	0.6%	12.7%	2.6%	0.5%	21.6%
2026-09-17T04:27:39+00:00	0.6%	12.7%	2.6%	0.5%	7.7%
2026-09-17T05:12:45+00:00	0.6%	12.7%	2.2%	0.5%	7.7%
2026-09-17T05:57:52+00:00	0.6%	12.7%	2.2%	0.5%	7.7%
2026-09-17T06:42:59+00:00	0.6%	12.7%	2.2%	0.5%	7.7%
2026-09-17T10:28:29+00:00	0.0%	12.7%	2.2%	1.7%	7.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	13%	74.0°F	6.6°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	13%	75.0°F	5.7°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
ICON	8%	71.8°F	6.8°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	7%	73.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-17 02:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	71.9°F	4.8°F	2026-09-16 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	2%	67.4°F	6.6°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	<1%	61.5°F	5.3°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260923-TMAX-GE82
Opened Sep 16 · 07:22 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 82°F+ · Wed Sep 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗