KPIT / Thu Sep 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≤ 61°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST5%Sep 24 · 06:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

29%

24%

14%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 15.2¢Risks 15.20u

WN2NO 84.8¢Risks 84.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +84.80u · WN2 −84.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	—	—	—	15.3%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	22.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	18.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	3.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	—	—	—	7.4%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	6.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	2.7%	—	—	8.3%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	30.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	23.3%	22.8%	12.1%	—	—	16.7%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	50.7%	18.4%	33.6%	65.1%	—	21.4%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	11.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	40.6%	66.3%	18.9%	9.3%	—	27.2%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	61.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	53.8%	16.9%	54.6%	13.8%	—	28.3%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	54.7%	—	84.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	12.7%	16.9%	22.4%	—	28.8%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	23.1%	86.1%	5.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	23.8%	54.2%	16.8%	35.3%	—	33.8%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	19.6%	36.6%	60.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	19.0%	67.0%	98.6%	18.4%	—	31.4%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	22.2%	45.5%	86.5%	—	—	33.4%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	25.9%	23.0%	26.6%	—	34.7%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	23.1%	38.8%	29.2%	—	—	93.9%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	24.0%	19.7%	17.1%	—	31.3%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	23.4%	23.4%	11.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	25.9%	14.5%	14.5%	—	28.5%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	19.8%	22.8%	16.3%	—	—	27.9%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	19.8%	23.8%	15.5%	24.7%	41.3%	26.4%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	19.0%	25.8%	27.6%	87.1%	—	28.6%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	30.0%	15.3%	12.1%	46.5%	28.9%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	21.6%	10.8%	11.9%	—	27.3%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	13.0%	23.6%	12.4%	8.9%	48.8%	25.6%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	31.4%	8.7%	9.8%	—	22.8%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	23.0%	8.4%	7.9%	27.3%	22.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	10.4%	4.7%	7.1%	—	19.1%
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	10.2%	6.8%	4.0%	5.9%	22.2%	15.4%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	6.5%	6.5%	5.6%	4.4%	—	12.8%
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	5.2%	3.4%	5.2%	26.3%	11.7%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	97.9%	1.9%	2.8%	3.1%	—	7.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	29%	63.4°F	3.4°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	63.5°F	2.8°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
National Blend	23%	64.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	14%	65.6°F	3.8°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	3%	69.1°F	4.1°F	2026-09-23 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-24 02:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	68.9°F	3.4°F	2026-09-23 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 61°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260924-TMAX-LE61
Opened Sep 20 · 07:45 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 61°F · Thu Sep 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗