KPIT / Thu Sep 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≤ 61°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST5%Sep 24 · 06:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

29%

24%

14%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 15.2¢Risks 15.20u

WN2NO 84.8¢Risks 84.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +84.80u · WN2 −84.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-24T06:42:24+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-20T07:45:33+00:00	4.0%	0.7%	2.3%	27.0%	55.0%
2026-09-20T08:31:11+00:00	4.0%	0.7%	2.3%	27.0%	55.0%
2026-09-20T09:16:16+00:00	4.0%	0.7%	2.3%	27.0%	55.0%
2026-09-20T10:01:21+00:00	4.0%	0.7%	2.3%	27.0%	55.0%
2026-09-20T10:46:25+00:00	4.0%	0.7%	2.3%	27.0%	55.0%
2026-09-20T11:31:31+00:00	4.0%	0.3%	2.3%	27.0%	55.0%
2026-09-20T12:16:51+00:00	4.0%	0.3%	2.3%	27.0%	55.0%
2026-09-20T13:01:56+00:00	4.0%	0.3%	2.3%	27.0%	55.0%
2026-09-20T13:47:01+00:00	5.2%	0.3%	2.3%	27.0%	55.0%
2026-09-20T14:33:32+00:00	5.1%	0.3%	2.4%	27.0%	55.0%
2026-09-20T15:18:42+00:00	5.1%	0.4%	2.4%	27.0%	55.0%
2026-09-20T16:04:05+00:00	5.1%	0.4%	2.4%	27.0%	55.0%
2026-09-20T16:49:10+00:00	5.1%	0.4%	2.4%	27.0%	18.8%
2026-09-20T17:34:16+00:00	5.1%	0.4%	2.4%	27.0%	18.8%
2026-09-20T18:19:22+00:00	5.1%	0.4%	2.4%	27.0%	18.8%
2026-09-20T19:04:30+00:00	5.1%	0.4%	2.4%	27.0%	18.8%
2026-09-20T19:49:34+00:00	6.7%	0.4%	2.4%	27.0%	18.8%
2026-09-20T20:34:40+00:00	6.7%	0.4%	2.4%	27.0%	18.8%
2026-09-20T21:19:45+00:00	6.7%	0.4%	2.4%	27.0%	18.8%
2026-09-20T22:04:49+00:00	6.7%	0.4%	2.4%	27.0%	18.8%
2026-09-20T22:49:55+00:00	6.7%	0.4%	2.4%	24.4%	18.8%
2026-09-20T23:35:03+00:00	6.7%	0.4%	2.4%	24.4%	18.8%
2026-09-21T00:20:09+00:00	6.7%	0.4%	2.4%	24.4%	18.8%
2026-09-21T01:05:22+00:00	6.7%	0.4%	2.4%	24.4%	18.8%
2026-09-21T01:50:27+00:00	5.9%	0.4%	2.4%	24.4%	18.8%
2026-09-21T02:35:34+00:00	5.9%	0.4%	2.4%	24.4%	18.8%
2026-09-21T03:20:39+00:00	5.9%	0.4%	2.4%	24.4%	18.8%
2026-09-21T04:06:00+00:00	5.9%	0.4%	2.4%	24.4%	18.8%
2026-09-21T04:51:06+00:00	5.9%	0.4%	2.4%	24.4%	19.1%
2026-09-21T05:36:15+00:00	5.9%	0.4%	2.4%	24.4%	19.1%
2026-09-21T06:21:21+00:00	5.9%	0.4%	2.4%	24.4%	19.1%
2026-09-21T07:06:29+00:00	5.9%	0.4%	2.4%	24.4%	19.1%
2026-09-21T07:51:34+00:00	5.6%	0.4%	2.4%	24.4%	19.1%
2026-09-21T08:36:40+00:00	5.6%	0.4%	2.4%	24.4%	19.1%
2026-09-21T09:21:45+00:00	5.6%	0.4%	2.4%	24.4%	19.1%
2026-09-21T10:06:49+00:00	5.6%	0.4%	2.4%	24.4%	19.1%
2026-09-21T10:51:58+00:00	5.6%	0.4%	2.4%	28.3%	19.1%
2026-09-21T11:37:49+00:00	5.6%	0.5%	2.4%	28.3%	19.1%
2026-09-21T12:23:00+00:00	5.6%	0.5%	2.4%	28.3%	19.1%
2026-09-21T13:08:05+00:00	5.6%	0.5%	2.4%	28.3%	19.1%
2026-09-21T13:53:10+00:00	5.8%	0.6%	2.4%	28.3%	19.1%
2026-09-21T14:40:16+00:00	5.8%	0.6%	2.4%	28.3%	19.1%
2026-09-21T15:25:25+00:00	5.8%	2.4%	2.4%	28.3%	19.1%
2026-09-21T16:10:45+00:00	5.8%	2.4%	2.4%	28.3%	19.1%
2026-09-21T16:55:50+00:00	5.8%	2.4%	2.4%	28.3%	22.0%
2026-09-21T17:40:56+00:00	5.8%	2.4%	2.4%	28.3%	22.0%
2026-09-21T18:26:01+00:00	5.8%	2.4%	2.4%	28.3%	22.0%
2026-09-21T19:11:10+00:00	5.8%	2.4%	2.4%	28.3%	22.0%
2026-09-21T19:56:16+00:00	5.3%	2.4%	2.4%	23.9%	22.0%
2026-09-21T20:41:30+00:00	5.3%	2.4%	2.4%	23.9%	22.0%
2026-09-21T21:26:35+00:00	5.3%	2.4%	2.4%	23.9%	22.0%
2026-09-21T22:11:41+00:00	5.3%	2.4%	2.4%	23.9%	22.0%
2026-09-21T22:56:46+00:00	5.3%	2.4%	2.4%	23.9%	22.0%
2026-09-21T23:41:52+00:00	5.3%	2.4%	2.4%	23.9%	22.0%
2026-09-22T00:26:56+00:00	5.3%	2.4%	2.4%	23.9%	22.0%
2026-09-22T01:12:05+00:00	5.3%	2.4%	2.4%	23.9%	22.0%
2026-09-22T01:57:10+00:00	5.0%	2.4%	2.4%	23.9%	22.0%
2026-09-22T02:42:20+00:00	5.0%	2.4%	2.4%	23.9%	22.0%
2026-09-22T03:27:44+00:00	5.0%	2.4%	2.4%	23.9%	22.0%
2026-09-22T04:12:48+00:00	5.0%	2.4%	2.4%	23.9%	22.0%
2026-09-22T04:57:56+00:00	5.0%	2.4%	2.4%	23.9%	27.6%
2026-09-22T05:43:15+00:00	5.0%	2.4%	2.4%	23.9%	27.6%
2026-09-22T06:28:39+00:00	5.0%	2.4%	2.4%	23.9%	27.6%
2026-09-22T07:13:48+00:00	5.0%	2.4%	2.4%	23.9%	27.6%
2026-09-22T07:58:57+00:00	4.5%	2.4%	2.4%	17.9%	27.6%
2026-09-22T08:44:40+00:00	4.5%	2.4%	2.4%	17.9%	27.6%
2026-09-22T09:29:44+00:00	4.5%	2.4%	2.4%	17.9%	27.6%
2026-09-22T10:14:49+00:00	4.5%	2.4%	2.4%	17.9%	27.6%
2026-09-22T10:59:56+00:00	4.5%	0.6%	2.4%	17.9%	27.6%
2026-09-22T11:45:09+00:00	4.5%	0.6%	2.4%	17.9%	27.6%
2026-09-22T12:30:14+00:00	4.5%	0.6%	2.4%	17.9%	27.6%
2026-09-22T13:15:20+00:00	4.5%	0.6%	2.4%	17.9%	27.6%
2026-09-22T14:00:25+00:00	4.5%	0.6%	2.6%	17.8%	27.5%
2026-09-22T14:47:12+00:00	4.5%	0.6%	2.6%	17.8%	27.5%
2026-09-22T15:32:20+00:00	4.5%	2.0%	2.6%	17.8%	27.5%
2026-09-22T16:17:38+00:00	4.5%	2.0%	2.6%	17.8%	27.5%
2026-09-22T17:02:44+00:00	4.5%	2.0%	2.6%	17.8%	35.6%
2026-09-22T17:47:50+00:00	4.5%	2.0%	2.6%	17.8%	35.6%
2026-09-22T18:32:55+00:00	4.5%	2.0%	2.6%	17.8%	35.6%
2026-09-22T19:18:04+00:00	4.5%	2.0%	2.6%	17.8%	35.6%
2026-09-22T20:03:09+00:00	4.1%	2.0%	2.6%	17.8%	35.6%
2026-09-22T20:48:14+00:00	4.1%	2.0%	2.6%	17.8%	35.6%
2026-09-22T21:33:20+00:00	4.1%	2.0%	2.6%	17.8%	35.6%
2026-09-22T22:18:28+00:00	4.1%	2.0%	2.6%	17.8%	35.6%
2026-09-22T23:03:37+00:00	4.1%	2.0%	1.3%	17.8%	35.6%
2026-09-22T23:48:43+00:00	4.1%	2.0%	1.3%	17.8%	35.6%
2026-09-23T00:33:49+00:00	4.1%	2.0%	1.3%	17.8%	35.6%
2026-09-23T01:18:57+00:00	4.1%	2.0%	1.3%	17.8%	35.6%
2026-09-23T02:04:02+00:00	3.7%	2.0%	1.3%	17.8%	35.6%
2026-09-23T02:49:13+00:00	3.7%	2.0%	1.3%	17.8%	35.6%
2026-09-23T03:34:33+00:00	3.7%	2.0%	1.3%	17.8%	35.6%
2026-09-23T04:19:43+00:00	3.7%	2.0%	1.3%	17.8%	35.6%
2026-09-23T05:04:48+00:00	3.7%	2.0%	1.3%	21.2%	40.0%
2026-09-23T05:50:03+00:00	3.7%	2.0%	1.3%	21.2%	40.0%
2026-09-23T06:35:09+00:00	3.7%	2.0%	1.3%	21.2%	40.0%
2026-09-23T07:20:17+00:00	3.7%	2.0%	1.3%	21.2%	40.0%
2026-09-23T08:05:27+00:00	3.1%	2.0%	1.3%	12.6%	40.0%
2026-09-23T08:51:11+00:00	3.1%	2.0%	1.3%	12.6%	40.0%
2026-09-23T09:36:15+00:00	3.1%	2.0%	1.3%	12.6%	40.0%
2026-09-23T10:21:19+00:00	3.1%	2.0%	1.3%	12.6%	40.0%
2026-09-23T11:06:25+00:00	3.1%	2.4%	1.3%	12.6%	40.0%
2026-09-23T11:51:38+00:00	3.1%	2.4%	1.3%	12.6%	40.0%
2026-09-23T12:36:42+00:00	3.1%	2.4%	1.3%	12.6%	40.0%
2026-09-23T13:21:48+00:00	3.5%	2.4%	1.3%	12.6%	40.0%
2026-09-23T14:09:03+00:00	3.5%	2.5%	1.3%	12.6%	38.8%
2026-09-23T14:54:11+00:00	3.5%	23.9%	1.3%	12.6%	38.8%
2026-09-23T15:39:28+00:00	3.5%	23.8%	1.3%	12.6%	38.8%
2026-09-23T16:24:36+00:00	3.5%	23.8%	1.3%	12.6%	39.9%
2026-09-23T17:09:45+00:00	3.5%	23.8%	1.6%	12.6%	39.9%
2026-09-23T17:54:54+00:00	3.5%	23.8%	1.6%	12.6%	39.9%
2026-09-23T18:39:59+00:00	3.5%	23.8%	1.6%	12.6%	39.9%
2026-09-23T19:25:10+00:00	3.3%	23.8%	1.6%	13.7%	39.9%
2026-09-23T20:10:18+00:00	3.3%	23.8%	1.6%	13.7%	39.9%
2026-09-23T20:55:23+00:00	3.3%	23.8%	1.6%	13.7%	39.9%
2026-09-23T21:40:28+00:00	3.3%	23.8%	1.6%	13.7%	39.9%
2026-09-23T22:25:35+00:00	3.3%	23.8%	1.6%	13.7%	39.9%
2026-09-23T23:10:41+00:00	3.3%	23.8%	1.6%	13.7%	39.9%
2026-09-23T23:55:46+00:00	3.3%	23.8%	1.6%	13.7%	39.9%
2026-09-24T00:40:52+00:00	3.3%	23.8%	1.6%	13.7%	39.9%
2026-09-24T01:26:04+00:00	3.1%	23.8%	1.6%	13.7%	39.9%
2026-09-24T02:11:11+00:00	3.1%	23.8%	1.6%	13.7%	39.9%
2026-09-24T02:56:19+00:00	3.1%	23.8%	1.6%	13.7%	39.9%
2026-09-24T03:41:53+00:00	3.1%	23.8%	1.6%	13.7%	39.9%
2026-09-24T04:26:58+00:00	3.1%	23.8%	1.6%	13.7%	28.9%
2026-09-24T05:12:03+00:00	3.1%	23.8%	1.5%	13.7%	28.9%
2026-09-24T05:57:11+00:00	3.1%	23.8%	1.5%	13.7%	28.9%
2026-09-24T06:42:24+00:00	3.1%	23.8%	1.5%	13.7%	28.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	29%	63.4°F	3.4°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	63.5°F	2.8°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
National Blend	23%	64.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	14%	65.6°F	3.8°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	3%	69.1°F	4.1°F	2026-09-23 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-24 02:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	68.9°F	3.4°F	2026-09-23 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 61°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260924-TMAX-LE61
Opened Sep 20 · 07:45 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 61°F · Thu Sep 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗