KPIT / Fri Sep 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Sep 25 · 02:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

66%

46%

26%

20%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 52.1¢Risks 52.15u

EPSNO 47.9¢Risks 47.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +47.85u · EPS −47.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	95.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	75.6%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	93.7%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	64.6%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	70.6%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	83.7%	—	4.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	—	—	—	69.7%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	91.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	—	—	—	63.7%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	38.2%	—	—	43.1%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	63.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	24.6%	—	—	34.2%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	40.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	49.3%	3.0%	36.7%	—	—	34.8%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	45.9%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	51.4%	64.4%	47.2%	13.4%	—	34.3%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	—	45.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	52.2%	60.1%	44.2%	38.5%	—	38.5%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	53.0%	21.6%	43.9%	37.2%	—	31.6%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	49.2%	37.5%	43.6%	32.3%	—	35.9%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	41.9%	0.5%	50.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	49.2%	23.8%	34.5%	37.7%	—	33.8%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	49.1%	32.6%	48.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	44.8%	57.8%	46.5%	31.4%	—	30.7%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	51.8%	51.8%	38.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	39.1%	40.0%	35.6%	—	33.9%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	50.9%	24.6%	46.2%	—	—	32.6%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	54.9%	27.9%	48.0%	33.9%	0.0%	37.6%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	54.0%	34.4%	48.0%	—	—	37.2%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	60.2%	35.9%	43.9%	39.8%	—	43.9%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	46.8%	43.7%	—	—	40.6%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	60.8%	41.3%	45.6%	44.5%	—	41.3%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	30.5%	48.9%	0.0%	—	43.3%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	58.1%	39.6%	65.9%	53.5%	21.5%	48.8%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	60.7%	61.9%	64.1%	53.6%	—	52.4%
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	61.1%	64.6%	69.2%	52.5%	0.0%	55.0%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	57.7%	62.7%	65.1%	37.3%	—	44.9%
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	56.7%	61.9%	65.7%	48.7%	0.0%	46.0%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	68.8%	61.0%	52.8%	—	52.8%
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	73.2%	64.2%	60.1%	35.8%	48.5%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	68.9%	70.2%	56.0%	—	39.5%
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	34.6%	63.9%	71.0%	53.2%	29.0%	36.1%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	69.0%	66.1%	63.0%	—	48.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	84%	72.5°F	4.1°F	2026-09-24 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	66%	70.1°F	3.8°F	2026-09-24 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	69.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-24 14:00	Pending
ICON	46%	68.1°F	3.5°F	2026-09-24 12:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	68.0°F	2.1°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	26%	66.3°F	3.4°F	2026-09-24 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	20%	66.1°F	2.9°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260925-TMAX-GE69
Opened Sep 18 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 69°F · Fri Sep 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗