KPIT / Fri Sep 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Sep 25 · 02:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

66%

46%

26%

20%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 52.1¢Risks 52.15u

EPSNO 47.9¢Risks 47.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +47.85u · EPS −47.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-25T02:18:57+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-18T07:33:32+00:00	76.5%	71.6%	68.1%	21.9%	23.7%
2026-09-18T08:19:06+00:00	76.5%	71.6%	68.1%	21.9%	23.7%
2026-09-18T09:04:11+00:00	76.5%	71.6%	68.1%	21.9%	23.7%
2026-09-18T09:49:19+00:00	76.5%	71.6%	68.1%	21.9%	23.7%
2026-09-18T10:34:26+00:00	76.5%	71.6%	68.1%	21.9%	23.7%
2026-09-18T11:20:01+00:00	76.5%	61.6%	68.1%	21.9%	23.7%
2026-09-18T12:05:13+00:00	76.5%	61.6%	68.1%	21.9%	23.7%
2026-09-18T12:50:18+00:00	76.5%	61.6%	68.1%	21.9%	23.7%
2026-09-18T13:35:24+00:00	74.8%	61.6%	68.1%	21.9%	23.7%
2026-09-18T14:21:54+00:00	74.2%	61.6%	68.1%	22.0%	23.7%
2026-09-18T15:07:03+00:00	74.2%	62.7%	68.1%	22.0%	23.7%
2026-09-18T15:52:24+00:00	74.2%	62.7%	68.1%	22.0%	23.7%
2026-09-18T16:37:29+00:00	74.2%	62.7%	68.1%	22.0%	73.7%
2026-09-18T17:22:35+00:00	74.2%	62.7%	68.1%	22.0%	73.7%
2026-09-18T18:07:40+00:00	74.2%	62.7%	68.1%	22.0%	73.7%
2026-09-18T18:52:49+00:00	74.2%	62.7%	68.1%	22.0%	73.7%
2026-09-18T19:37:54+00:00	77.5%	62.7%	68.1%	22.0%	73.7%
2026-09-18T20:22:59+00:00	77.5%	62.7%	68.1%	22.0%	73.7%
2026-09-18T21:08:03+00:00	77.5%	62.7%	68.1%	22.0%	73.7%
2026-09-18T21:53:08+00:00	77.5%	62.7%	68.1%	22.0%	73.7%
2026-09-18T22:38:14+00:00	77.5%	62.7%	68.1%	46.8%	73.7%
2026-09-18T23:23:19+00:00	77.5%	62.7%	68.1%	46.8%	73.7%
2026-09-19T00:08:24+00:00	77.5%	62.7%	68.1%	46.8%	73.7%
2026-09-19T00:53:31+00:00	77.5%	62.7%	68.1%	46.8%	73.7%
2026-09-19T01:38:36+00:00	79.1%	62.7%	68.1%	46.8%	73.7%
2026-09-19T02:23:42+00:00	79.1%	62.7%	68.1%	46.8%	73.7%
2026-09-24T15:01:48+00:00	84.4%	20.6%	30.9%	70.3%	48.9%
2026-09-24T15:47:14+00:00	84.4%	20.4%	30.9%	70.3%	48.9%
2026-09-24T16:32:26+00:00	84.4%	20.4%	30.9%	70.3%	48.9%
2026-09-24T17:17:32+00:00	84.4%	20.4%	27.8%	70.3%	48.9%
2026-09-24T18:02:38+00:00	84.4%	20.4%	27.8%	70.3%	48.9%
2026-09-24T18:47:42+00:00	84.4%	20.4%	27.8%	70.3%	48.9%
2026-09-24T19:32:51+00:00	83.8%	20.4%	27.8%	70.3%	45.5%
2026-09-24T20:17:59+00:00	83.8%	20.4%	27.8%	70.3%	45.5%
2026-09-24T21:03:05+00:00	83.8%	20.4%	27.8%	70.3%	45.5%
2026-09-24T21:48:10+00:00	83.8%	20.4%	27.8%	70.3%	45.5%
2026-09-24T22:33:16+00:00	83.8%	20.4%	27.8%	66.5%	45.5%
2026-09-24T23:18:23+00:00	83.8%	20.5%	25.9%	66.5%	45.5%
2026-09-25T00:03:29+00:00	83.8%	20.5%	25.9%	66.5%	45.5%
2026-09-25T00:48:38+00:00	83.8%	20.5%	25.9%	66.5%	45.5%
2026-09-25T01:33:49+00:00	83.8%	20.5%	25.9%	66.5%	45.5%
2026-09-25T02:18:57+00:00	83.8%	20.5%	25.9%	66.5%	45.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	84%	72.5°F	4.1°F	2026-09-24 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	66%	70.1°F	3.8°F	2026-09-24 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	69.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-24 14:00	Pending
ICON	46%	68.1°F	3.5°F	2026-09-24 12:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	68.0°F	2.1°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	26%	66.3°F	3.4°F	2026-09-24 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	20%	66.1°F	2.9°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260925-TMAX-GE69
Opened Sep 18 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 69°F · Fri Sep 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗