KPIT / Sat Sep 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST93%Sep 22 · 14:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

97%

88%

84%

75%

Consensus

93%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 86.9¢Risks 86.85u

ICONNO 13.1¢Risks 13.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +13.15u · ICON −13.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	94.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—	83.2%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	79.6%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	—	—	—	86.9%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	84.8%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	83.5%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	84.8%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	80.8%	—	—	—	—	79.7%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	70.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	68.5%	—	—	—	—	83.6%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	33.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	48.3%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	54.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	74.1%	—	—	—	—	64.3%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	57.7%	—	8.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	75.3%	—	72.9%	—	—	60.2%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	79.0%	—	76.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	73.6%	—	—	60.0%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	69.6%	—	72.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	57.1%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	75.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	83.3%	21.8%	73.5%	—	—	59.4%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	69.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	79.6%	67.0%	57.7%	19.4%	—	61.1%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	60.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	80.6%	86.1%	74.0%	68.3%	—	64.3%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	74.4%	—	82.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	78.9%	74.9%	77.8%	62.0%	—	59.1%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	82.6%	—	74.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	34.5%	77.6%	76.4%	—	64.1%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	84.7%	14.4%	78.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	87.5%	80.5%	79.9%	67.8%	—	70.0%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	88.1%	59.3%	81.6%	—	—	70.4%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	88.2%	65.4%	79.8%	75.9%	—	76.6%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	88.8%	77.8%	81.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	92.4%	79.1%	77.7%	81.0%	—	84.5%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	91.6%	79.0%	78.3%	—	—	84.1%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	92.8%	76.0%	77.5%	88.9%	—	86.4%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	91.2%	78.9%	83.0%	—	—	85.4%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	91.4%	81.7%	83.0%	92.2%	—	89.2%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	92.0%	91.2%	84.4%	—	—	86.2%
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	92.7%	93.8%	86.3%	92.7%	—	91.9%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	91.7%	91.7%	85.9%	0.1%	—	86.5%
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	92.4%	92.4%	87.9%	89.0%	—	89.0%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	96.5%	96.9%	90.8%	92.6%	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	95.4%	94.8%	93.7%	93.3%	0.8%	92.0%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	95.7%	93.2%	94.4%	93.6%	—	90.8%
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	97.8%	93.5%	95.7%	95.7%	0.3%	92.6%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	98.6%	95.0%	96.3%	96.8%	—	93.8%
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	98.7%	96.8%	96.3%	97.1%	87.8%	95.3%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	98.5%	97.6%	94.4%	97.3%	—	94.0%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	99.2%	95.9%	97.4%	97.6%	89.8%	95.2%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	99.2%	97.2%	98.4%	—	97.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	99%	70.4°F	2.2°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	97%	74.5°F	4.7°F	2026-09-22 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	88%	71.4°F	5.0°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	84%	70.9°F	5.5°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	77%	68.0°F	3.3°F	2026-09-22 06:00	Pending
ICON	75%	68.7°F	4.7°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-22 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260926-TMAX-GE66
Opened Sep 22 · 02:42 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 66°F · Sat Sep 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗