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KPIT / Sat Sep 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST93%Sep 22 · 14:47 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
99%
AIFS
97%
HRES
88%
WN2
84%
ICON
75%
Consensus
93%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 86.9¢Risks 86.85u
VS
ICONNO 13.1¢Risks 13.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +13.15u · ICON −13.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 96.9% · 2026-09-22T02:42:20+00:00AIFS Single: 96.9% · 2026-09-22T03:27:44+00:00AIFS Single: 96.9% · 2026-09-22T04:12:48+00:00AIFS Single: 96.9% · 2026-09-22T04:57:56+00:00AIFS Single: 96.9% · 2026-09-22T05:43:15+00:00AIFS Single: 96.9% · 2026-09-22T06:28:39+00:00AIFS Single: 96.9% · 2026-09-22T07:13:48+00:00AIFS Single: 97.6% · 2026-09-22T07:58:57+00:00AIFS Single: 97.6% · 2026-09-22T08:44:40+00:00AIFS Single: 97.6% · 2026-09-22T09:29:44+00:00AIFS Single: 97.6% · 2026-09-22T10:14:49+00:00AIFS Single: 97.6% · 2026-09-22T10:59:56+00:00AIFS Single: 97.6% · 2026-09-22T11:45:09+00:00AIFS Single: 97.6% · 2026-09-22T12:30:14+00:00AIFS Single: 97.6% · 2026-09-22T13:15:20+00:00AIFS Single: 97.4% · 2026-09-22T14:00:25+00:00AIFS Single: 97.4% · 2026-09-22T14:47:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.5% · 2026-09-22T02:42:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.5% · 2026-09-22T03:27:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.5% · 2026-09-22T04:12:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.5% · 2026-09-22T04:57:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.5% · 2026-09-22T05:43:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.5% · 2026-09-22T06:28:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.5% · 2026-09-22T07:13:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.5% · 2026-09-22T07:58:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.5% · 2026-09-22T08:44:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.5% · 2026-09-22T09:29:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.5% · 2026-09-22T10:14:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.7% · 2026-09-22T10:59:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.7% · 2026-09-22T11:45:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.7% · 2026-09-22T12:30:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.7% · 2026-09-22T13:15:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.7% · 2026-09-22T14:00:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.7% · 2026-09-22T14:47:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.9% · 2026-09-22T02:42:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.9% · 2026-09-22T03:27:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.9% · 2026-09-22T04:12:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.9% · 2026-09-22T04:57:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.9% · 2026-09-22T05:43:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.9% · 2026-09-22T06:28:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.9% · 2026-09-22T07:13:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.9% · 2026-09-22T07:58:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.9% · 2026-09-22T08:44:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.9% · 2026-09-22T09:29:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.9% · 2026-09-22T10:14:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.9% · 2026-09-22T10:59:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.9% · 2026-09-22T11:45:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.9% · 2026-09-22T12:30:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.9% · 2026-09-22T13:15:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.9% · 2026-09-22T14:00:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.9% · 2026-09-22T14:47:12+00:00IFS HRES: 83.5% · 2026-09-22T02:42:20+00:00IFS HRES: 83.5% · 2026-09-22T03:27:44+00:00IFS HRES: 83.5% · 2026-09-22T04:12:48+00:00IFS HRES: 83.5% · 2026-09-22T04:57:56+00:00IFS HRES: 83.5% · 2026-09-22T05:43:15+00:00IFS HRES: 83.5% · 2026-09-22T06:28:39+00:00IFS HRES: 83.5% · 2026-09-22T07:13:48+00:00IFS HRES: 87.9% · 2026-09-22T07:58:57+00:00IFS HRES: 87.9% · 2026-09-22T08:44:40+00:00IFS HRES: 87.9% · 2026-09-22T09:29:44+00:00IFS HRES: 87.9% · 2026-09-22T10:14:49+00:00IFS HRES: 87.9% · 2026-09-22T10:59:56+00:00IFS HRES: 87.9% · 2026-09-22T11:45:09+00:00IFS HRES: 87.9% · 2026-09-22T12:30:14+00:00IFS HRES: 87.9% · 2026-09-22T13:15:20+00:00IFS HRES: 87.9% · 2026-09-22T14:00:25+00:00IFS HRES: 87.9% · 2026-09-22T14:47:12+00:00ICON: 86.3% · 2026-09-22T02:42:20+00:00ICON: 86.3% · 2026-09-22T03:27:44+00:00ICON: 86.3% · 2026-09-22T04:12:48+00:00ICON: 75.0% · 2026-09-22T04:57:56+00:00ICON: 75.0% · 2026-09-22T05:43:15+00:00ICON: 75.0% · 2026-09-22T06:28:39+00:00ICON: 75.0% · 2026-09-22T07:13:48+00:00ICON: 75.0% · 2026-09-22T07:58:57+00:00ICON: 75.0% · 2026-09-22T08:44:40+00:00ICON: 75.0% · 2026-09-22T09:29:44+00:00ICON: 75.0% · 2026-09-22T10:14:49+00:00ICON: 75.0% · 2026-09-22T10:59:56+00:00ICON: 75.0% · 2026-09-22T11:45:09+00:00ICON: 75.0% · 2026-09-22T12:30:14+00:00ICON: 75.0% · 2026-09-22T13:15:20+00:00ICON: 75.0% · 2026-09-22T14:00:25+00:00ICON: 75.0% · 2026-09-22T14:47:12+00:0009-22 02:4209-22 08:4409-22 14:47
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-22T14:47:12+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-22T02:42:20+00:0096.9%95.5%83.9%83.5%86.3%
2026-09-22T03:27:44+00:0096.9%95.5%83.9%83.5%86.3%
2026-09-22T04:12:48+00:0096.9%95.5%83.9%83.5%86.3%
2026-09-22T04:57:56+00:0096.9%95.5%83.9%83.5%75.0%
2026-09-22T05:43:15+00:0096.9%95.5%83.9%83.5%75.0%
2026-09-22T06:28:39+00:0096.9%95.5%83.9%83.5%75.0%
2026-09-22T07:13:48+00:0096.9%95.5%83.9%83.5%75.0%
2026-09-22T07:58:57+00:0097.6%95.5%83.9%87.9%75.0%
2026-09-22T08:44:40+00:0097.6%95.5%83.9%87.9%75.0%
2026-09-22T09:29:44+00:0097.6%95.5%83.9%87.9%75.0%
2026-09-22T10:14:49+00:0097.6%95.5%83.9%87.9%75.0%
2026-09-22T10:59:56+00:0097.6%98.7%83.9%87.9%75.0%
2026-09-22T11:45:09+00:0097.6%98.7%83.9%87.9%75.0%
2026-09-22T12:30:14+00:0097.6%98.7%83.9%87.9%75.0%
2026-09-22T13:15:20+00:0097.6%98.7%83.9%87.9%75.0%
2026-09-22T14:00:25+00:0097.4%98.7%83.9%87.9%75.0%
2026-09-22T14:47:12+00:0097.4%98.7%83.9%87.9%75.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble99%70.4°F2.2°F2026-09-22 00:00Pending
AIFS Single97%74.5°F4.7°F2026-09-22 06:00Pending
IFS HRES88%71.4°F5.0°F2026-09-22 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 284%70.9°F5.5°F2026-09-17 12:00Pending
National Blend77%68.0°F3.3°F2026-09-22 06:00Pending
ICON75%68.7°F4.7°F2026-09-22 00:00Pending
NWS forecast55%66.0°F4.5°F2026-09-22 02:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260926-TMAX-GE66
Opened Sep 22 · 02:42 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 66°F · Sat Sep 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗