KPIT / Sat Sep 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST85%Sep 23 · 14:09 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

94%

85%

76%

63%

Consensus

85%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 78.8¢Risks 78.80u

ICONNO 21.2¢Risks 21.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +21.20u · ICON −21.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	75.6%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	80.3%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	71.3%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	60.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	—	—	—	75.9%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	—	—	—	72.5%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	63.8%	—	—	—	—	52.9%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	64.8%	—	62.0%	—	—	48.2%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	69.0%	—	65.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	55.0%	—	62.4%	—	—	47.5%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	57.6%	—	60.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	65.2%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	64.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	73.5%	13.2%	61.3%	—	—	46.0%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	56.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	68.3%	53.5%	43.7%	11.2%	—	47.2%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	69.9%	—	46.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	69.0%	76.3%	60.8%	54.4%	—	50.0%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	61.1%	—	70.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	66.3%	61.3%	64.9%	46.9%	—	43.9%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	60.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	68.4%	21.2%	64.1%	62.5%	—	48.4%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	73.0%	7.0%	64.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	76.8%	67.0%	66.2%	51.7%	—	54.2%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	77.4%	42.4%	68.2%	—	—	54.3%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	77.2%	48.2%	65.4%	60.4%	—	61.3%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	77.8%	62.4%	67.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	83.4%	63.6%	61.8%	66.1%	—	71.0%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	81.7%	63.0%	62.1%	—	—	69.9%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	83.5%	58.7%	60.6%	76.8%	—	72.9%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	80.3%	61.8%	67.4%	—	—	70.9%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	80.3%	65.1%	67.0%	81.7%	—	76.5%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	81.0%	79.5%	68.4%	—	—	71.2%
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	81.7%	83.8%	70.8%	81.7%	—	80.2%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	79.4%	79.4%	69.5%	0.0%	—	70.4%
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	80.1%	80.1%	72.0%	74.0%	—	74.0%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	88.6%	89.8%	76.6%	80.1%	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	85.6%	84.1%	81.8%	80.9%	0.1%	78.3%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	85.7%	80.0%	82.6%	80.9%	—	75.2%
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	91.1%	80.0%	85.1%	85.1%	0.0%	78.0%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	93.3%	82.7%	86.1%	87.5%	—	79.9%
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	93.2%	87.0%	85.4%	87.8%	66.9%	82.8%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	92.0%	88.8%	79.8%	88.0%	—	78.7%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	94.8%	82.9%	87.5%	88.3%	68.3%	80.8%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	94.2%	85.9%	90.8%	—	86.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	94%	74.5°F	4.4°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	94%	70.6°F	2.0°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	85%	72.2°F	4.5°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	76%	70.1°F	3.7°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending
ICON	63%	68.8°F	3.9°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-23 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260926-TMAX-GE68
Opened Sep 20 · 15:18 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 68°F · Sat Sep 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗