KPIT / Sat Sep 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST85%Sep 23 · 14:09 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

94%

85%

76%

63%

Consensus

85%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 78.8¢Risks 78.80u

ICONNO 21.2¢Risks 21.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +21.20u · ICON −21.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-23T14:09:03+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-20T15:18:43+00:00	83.6%	87.0%	73.5%	61.9%	85.0%
2026-09-20T16:04:05+00:00	83.6%	87.0%	73.5%	61.9%	85.0%
2026-09-20T16:49:10+00:00	83.6%	87.0%	73.5%	61.9%	75.4%
2026-09-20T17:34:16+00:00	83.6%	87.0%	73.5%	61.9%	75.4%
2026-09-20T18:19:22+00:00	83.6%	87.0%	73.5%	61.9%	75.4%
2026-09-20T19:04:30+00:00	83.6%	87.0%	73.5%	61.9%	75.4%
2026-09-20T19:49:34+00:00	86.6%	87.0%	73.5%	61.9%	75.4%
2026-09-20T20:34:40+00:00	86.6%	87.0%	73.5%	61.9%	75.4%
2026-09-20T21:19:45+00:00	86.6%	87.0%	73.5%	61.9%	75.4%
2026-09-20T22:04:49+00:00	86.6%	87.0%	73.5%	61.9%	75.4%
2026-09-20T22:49:55+00:00	86.6%	87.0%	73.5%	51.2%	75.4%
2026-09-20T23:35:03+00:00	86.6%	87.0%	73.5%	51.2%	75.4%
2026-09-21T00:20:09+00:00	86.6%	87.0%	73.5%	51.2%	75.4%
2026-09-21T01:05:22+00:00	86.6%	87.0%	73.5%	51.2%	75.4%
2026-09-21T01:50:27+00:00	88.9%	87.0%	73.5%	51.2%	75.4%
2026-09-21T02:35:34+00:00	88.9%	87.0%	73.5%	51.2%	75.4%
2026-09-21T03:20:39+00:00	88.9%	87.0%	73.5%	51.2%	75.4%
2026-09-21T04:06:00+00:00	88.9%	87.0%	73.5%	51.2%	75.4%
2026-09-21T04:51:06+00:00	88.9%	87.0%	73.5%	51.2%	38.6%
2026-09-21T05:36:15+00:00	88.9%	87.0%	73.5%	51.2%	38.6%
2026-09-21T06:21:21+00:00	88.9%	87.0%	73.5%	51.2%	38.6%
2026-09-21T07:06:29+00:00	88.9%	87.0%	73.5%	51.2%	38.6%
2026-09-21T07:51:34+00:00	89.1%	87.0%	73.5%	51.2%	38.6%
2026-09-21T08:36:40+00:00	89.1%	87.0%	73.5%	51.2%	38.6%
2026-09-21T09:21:45+00:00	89.1%	87.0%	73.5%	51.2%	38.6%
2026-09-21T10:06:49+00:00	89.1%	87.0%	73.5%	51.2%	38.6%
2026-09-21T10:51:58+00:00	89.1%	87.0%	73.5%	67.2%	38.6%
2026-09-21T11:37:49+00:00	89.1%	90.6%	73.5%	67.2%	38.6%
2026-09-21T12:23:00+00:00	89.1%	90.6%	73.5%	67.2%	38.6%
2026-09-21T13:08:05+00:00	89.1%	90.6%	73.5%	67.2%	38.6%
2026-09-21T13:53:10+00:00	91.2%	90.6%	73.4%	67.2%	38.6%
2026-09-21T14:40:16+00:00	91.2%	90.6%	73.4%	67.2%	38.6%
2026-09-21T15:25:25+00:00	91.2%	79.6%	73.4%	67.2%	38.6%
2026-09-21T16:10:45+00:00	91.2%	79.6%	73.4%	67.2%	38.6%
2026-09-21T16:55:50+00:00	91.2%	79.6%	73.4%	67.2%	77.4%
2026-09-21T17:40:56+00:00	91.2%	79.6%	73.4%	67.2%	77.4%
2026-09-21T18:26:01+00:00	91.2%	79.6%	73.4%	67.2%	77.4%
2026-09-21T19:11:10+00:00	91.2%	79.6%	73.4%	67.2%	77.4%
2026-09-21T19:56:16+00:00	92.5%	79.6%	73.4%	73.7%	77.4%
2026-09-21T20:41:30+00:00	92.5%	79.6%	73.4%	73.7%	77.4%
2026-09-21T21:26:35+00:00	92.5%	79.6%	73.4%	73.7%	77.4%
2026-09-21T22:11:41+00:00	92.5%	79.6%	73.4%	73.7%	77.4%
2026-09-21T22:56:46+00:00	92.5%	79.6%	73.4%	73.7%	77.4%
2026-09-21T23:41:52+00:00	92.5%	79.6%	73.4%	73.7%	77.4%
2026-09-22T00:26:56+00:00	92.5%	79.6%	73.4%	73.7%	77.4%
2026-09-22T01:12:05+00:00	92.5%	79.6%	73.4%	73.7%	77.4%
2026-09-22T01:57:10+00:00	92.8%	79.6%	73.4%	73.7%	77.4%
2026-09-22T15:32:20+00:00	93.4%	83.1%	73.4%	78.0%	60.0%
2026-09-22T16:17:38+00:00	93.4%	83.1%	73.4%	78.0%	60.0%
2026-09-22T17:02:44+00:00	93.4%	83.1%	73.4%	78.0%	73.0%
2026-09-22T17:47:50+00:00	93.4%	83.1%	73.4%	78.0%	73.0%
2026-09-22T18:32:55+00:00	93.4%	83.1%	73.4%	78.0%	73.0%
2026-09-22T19:18:04+00:00	93.4%	83.1%	73.4%	78.0%	73.0%
2026-09-22T20:03:09+00:00	95.3%	83.1%	73.4%	78.0%	73.0%
2026-09-22T20:48:14+00:00	95.3%	83.1%	73.4%	78.0%	73.0%
2026-09-22T21:33:20+00:00	95.3%	83.1%	73.4%	78.0%	73.0%
2026-09-22T22:18:28+00:00	95.3%	83.1%	73.4%	78.0%	73.0%
2026-09-22T23:03:37+00:00	95.3%	83.1%	72.0%	78.0%	73.0%
2026-09-22T23:48:43+00:00	95.3%	83.1%	72.0%	78.0%	73.0%
2026-09-23T00:33:49+00:00	95.3%	83.1%	72.0%	78.0%	73.0%
2026-09-23T01:18:57+00:00	95.3%	83.1%	72.0%	78.0%	73.0%
2026-09-23T02:04:02+00:00	94.7%	83.1%	72.0%	78.0%	73.0%
2026-09-23T02:49:13+00:00	94.7%	83.1%	72.0%	78.0%	73.0%
2026-09-23T03:34:33+00:00	94.7%	83.1%	72.0%	78.0%	73.0%
2026-09-23T04:19:43+00:00	94.7%	83.1%	72.0%	78.0%	73.0%
2026-09-23T05:04:48+00:00	94.7%	83.1%	72.0%	78.6%	63.1%
2026-09-23T05:50:03+00:00	94.7%	83.1%	72.0%	78.6%	63.1%
2026-09-23T06:35:09+00:00	94.7%	83.1%	72.0%	78.6%	63.1%
2026-09-23T07:20:17+00:00	94.7%	83.1%	72.0%	78.6%	63.1%
2026-09-23T08:05:27+00:00	95.9%	83.1%	72.0%	85.1%	63.1%
2026-09-23T08:51:11+00:00	95.9%	83.1%	72.0%	85.1%	63.1%
2026-09-23T09:36:15+00:00	95.9%	83.1%	72.0%	85.1%	63.1%
2026-09-23T10:21:19+00:00	95.9%	83.1%	72.0%	85.1%	63.1%
2026-09-23T11:06:25+00:00	95.9%	94.4%	75.9%	85.1%	63.1%
2026-09-23T11:51:38+00:00	95.9%	94.4%	75.9%	85.1%	63.1%
2026-09-23T12:36:42+00:00	95.9%	94.4%	75.9%	85.1%	63.1%
2026-09-23T13:21:48+00:00	94.5%	94.4%	75.9%	85.1%	63.1%
2026-09-23T14:09:03+00:00	94.5%	93.9%	75.9%	85.2%	63.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	94%	74.5°F	4.4°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	94%	70.6°F	2.0°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	85%	72.2°F	4.5°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	76%	70.1°F	3.7°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending
ICON	63%	68.8°F	3.9°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-23 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260926-TMAX-GE68
Opened Sep 20 · 15:18 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 68°F · Sat Sep 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗