KPIT / Sat Sep 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST44%Sep 19 · 10:40 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

46%

43%

34%

25%

Consensus

44%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 49.1¢Risks 49.15u

ICONNO 50.8¢Risks 50.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +50.85u · ICON −50.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	39.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	—	—	—	56.0%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	22.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	—	—	—	30.3%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	38.0%	—	—	25.7%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	45.1%	—	41.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	30.7%	—	37.6%	—	—	24.4%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	35.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	39.7%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	38.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	48.0%	3.6%	34.8%	—	—	21.8%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	29.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	26.9%	19.4%	2.7%	—	21.9%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	20.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	40.6%	49.3%	32.3%	26.6%	—	23.2%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	41.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	36.5%	31.6%	35.1%	20.0%	—	17.9%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	29.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	5.5%	33.0%	31.6%	—	20.1%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	41.9%	1.1%	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	34.5%	33.8%	21.3%	—	23.2%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	14.7%	35.0%	—	—	22.6%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	44.8%	17.8%	31.4%	26.9%	—	27.7%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	44.6%	27.9%	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	51.8%	28.2%	26.6%	30.6%	—	35.6%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	48.1%	26.9%	26.1%	—	—	33.5%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	22.5%	24.0%	40.4%	—	35.7%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	24.1%	29.1%	—	—	32.6%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	42.8%	25.9%	27.6%	44.9%	—	37.8%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	40.6%	27.9%	—	—	30.7%
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	42.4%	45.6%	29.2%	42.4%	—	40.3%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	37.8%	37.8%	26.7%	0.0%	—	27.6%
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	37.4%	37.4%	28.0%	30.0%	—	30.0%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	52.4%	31.4%	35.9%	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	40.1%	36.5%	35.4%	0.0%	32.0%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	32.5%	36.1%	33.7%	—	26.9%
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	30.7%	38.1%	38.1%	0.0%	28.4%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	32.5%	37.7%	40.3%	—	28.8%
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	51.4%	37.2%	34.5%	38.6%	15.4%	30.5%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	38.1%	24.8%	36.6%	—	23.6%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	26.3%	33.1%	34.6%	13.4%	23.8%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	46.7%	28.1%	37.0%	—	29.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	73%	74.9°F	5.5°F	2026-09-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	72.0°F	6.5°F	2026-09-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	46%	70.9°F	5.4°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	43%	70.4°F	6.2°F	2026-09-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	34%	70.4°F	2.7°F	2026-09-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	25%	65.0°F	9.8°F	2026-09-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260926-TMAX-GE72
Opened Sep 19 · 07:39 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 72°F · Sat Sep 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗