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KPIT / Sat Sep 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST44%Sep 19 · 10:40 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
73%
WN2
46%
HRES
43%
EPS
34%
ICON
25%
Consensus
44%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 49.1¢Risks 49.15u
VS
ICONNO 50.8¢Risks 50.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +50.85u · ICON −50.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 73.0% · 2026-09-19T07:39:44+00:00AIFS Single: 73.0% · 2026-09-19T08:25:22+00:00AIFS Single: 73.0% · 2026-09-19T09:10:35+00:00AIFS Single: 73.0% · 2026-09-19T09:55:40+00:00AIFS Single: 73.0% · 2026-09-19T10:40:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.2% · 2026-09-19T07:39:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.2% · 2026-09-19T08:25:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.2% · 2026-09-19T09:10:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.2% · 2026-09-19T09:55:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.2% · 2026-09-19T10:40:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 45.6% · 2026-09-19T07:39:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 45.6% · 2026-09-19T08:25:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 45.6% · 2026-09-19T09:10:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 45.6% · 2026-09-19T09:55:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 45.6% · 2026-09-19T10:40:44+00:00IFS HRES: 43.0% · 2026-09-19T07:39:44+00:00IFS HRES: 43.0% · 2026-09-19T08:25:22+00:00IFS HRES: 43.0% · 2026-09-19T09:10:35+00:00IFS HRES: 43.0% · 2026-09-19T09:55:40+00:00IFS HRES: 43.0% · 2026-09-19T10:40:44+00:00ICON: 25.3% · 2026-09-19T07:39:44+00:00ICON: 25.3% · 2026-09-19T08:25:22+00:00ICON: 25.3% · 2026-09-19T09:10:35+00:00ICON: 25.3% · 2026-09-19T09:55:40+00:00ICON: 25.3% · 2026-09-19T10:40:44+00:0009-19 07:3909-19 09:1009-19 10:40
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-19T10:40:44+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-19T07:39:44+00:0073.0%34.2%45.6%43.0%25.3%
2026-09-19T08:25:22+00:0073.0%34.2%45.6%43.0%25.3%
2026-09-19T09:10:35+00:0073.0%34.2%45.6%43.0%25.3%
2026-09-19T09:55:40+00:0073.0%34.2%45.6%43.0%25.3%
2026-09-19T10:40:44+00:0073.0%34.2%45.6%43.0%25.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single73%74.9°F5.5°F2026-09-19 00:00Pending
National Blend53%72.0°F6.5°F2026-09-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 246%70.9°F5.4°F2026-09-17 12:00Pending
IFS HRES43%70.4°F6.2°F2026-09-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble34%70.4°F2.7°F2026-09-18 00:00Pending
ICON25%65.0°F9.8°F2026-09-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260926-TMAX-GE72
Opened Sep 19 · 07:39 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 72°F · Sat Sep 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗