KPIT / Sun Sep 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST37%Sep 21 · 14:40 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

55%

50%

40%

27%

22%

Consensus

37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 38.6¢Risks 38.60u

EPSNO 61.4¢Risks 61.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +61.40u · EPS −61.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	28.6%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	46.6%	—	—	—	—	22.5%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	1.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	27.3%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	53.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	30.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	0.3%	—	—	25.4%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	35.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	36.6%	—	0.2%	—	—	27.3%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	23.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	32.4%	10.2%	—	—	—	28.2%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	7.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	45.1%	20.9%	0.9%	—	22.4%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	24.3%	27.9%	39.2%	27.2%	—	24.9%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	28.1%	—	44.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	31.6%	43.9%	31.6%	—	23.9%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	35.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	17.4%	20.6%	33.7%	29.5%	—	19.5%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	0.4%	31.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	30.0%	12.5%	31.5%	21.9%	—	17.8%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	16.2%	28.8%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	8.3%	22.1%	29.9%	—	19.0%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	17.8%	3.1%	29.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	19.0%	9.4%	18.4%	3.8%	—	14.4%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	31.8%	29.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	17.1%	24.0%	21.8%	27.9%	—	21.0%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	19.7%	10.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	23.5%	24.3%	3.8%	30.3%	—	16.3%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	29.8%	24.5%	24.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	28.2%	26.4%	17.6%	—	13.1%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	14.1%	3.5%	31.5%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	11.6%	1.1%	34.1%	16.0%	—	7.2%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	1.1%	30.4%	13.2%	—	8.7%
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	24.6%	5.5%	33.1%	20.8%	0.0%	11.2%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	12.2%	20.0%	17.4%	—	9.2%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	11.3%	17.3%	16.5%	7.9%	8.4%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	44.4%	30.0%	20.1%	15.6%	—	11.8%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	45.7%	21.2%	22.2%	18.2%	9.5%	17.2%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	38.1%	28.5%	26.0%	12.0%	—	14.4%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	37.6%	30.3%	29.0%	17.1%	15.2%	11.7%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	32.4%	19.2%	16.0%	—	14.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	55%	73.2°F	5.3°F	2026-09-21 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	73.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-21 02:00	Pending
ICON	50%	72.5°F	6.9°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	72.0°F	5.5°F	2026-09-21 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	40%	71.0°F	5.7°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	27%	68.4°F	6.6°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	22%	70.8°F	2.2°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260927-TMAX-GE73
Opened Sep 20 · 11:31 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 73°F · Sun Sep 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗