KPIT / Sun Sep 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST37%Sep 21 · 14:40 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

55%

50%

40%

27%

22%

Consensus

37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 38.6¢Risks 38.60u

EPSNO 61.4¢Risks 61.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +61.40u · EPS −61.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-21T14:40:16+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-20T11:31:31+00:00	58.6%	34.2%	39.5%	33.2%	36.4%
2026-09-20T12:16:51+00:00	58.6%	34.2%	39.5%	33.2%	36.4%
2026-09-20T13:01:56+00:00	58.6%	34.2%	39.5%	33.2%	36.4%
2026-09-20T13:47:01+00:00	56.4%	34.2%	39.5%	33.2%	36.4%
2026-09-20T14:33:32+00:00	56.4%	34.2%	39.5%	33.3%	36.4%
2026-09-20T15:18:43+00:00	56.4%	31.5%	39.5%	33.3%	36.4%
2026-09-20T16:04:05+00:00	56.4%	31.5%	39.5%	33.3%	36.4%
2026-09-20T16:49:10+00:00	56.4%	31.5%	39.5%	33.3%	63.6%
2026-09-20T17:34:16+00:00	56.4%	31.5%	39.5%	33.3%	63.6%
2026-09-20T18:19:22+00:00	56.4%	31.5%	39.5%	33.3%	63.6%
2026-09-20T19:04:30+00:00	56.4%	31.5%	39.5%	33.3%	63.6%
2026-09-20T19:49:34+00:00	27.0%	31.5%	39.5%	33.3%	63.6%
2026-09-20T20:34:40+00:00	27.0%	31.5%	39.5%	33.3%	63.6%
2026-09-20T21:19:45+00:00	27.0%	31.5%	39.5%	33.3%	63.6%
2026-09-20T22:04:49+00:00	27.0%	31.5%	39.5%	33.3%	63.6%
2026-09-20T22:49:55+00:00	27.0%	31.5%	39.5%	40.5%	63.6%
2026-09-20T23:35:03+00:00	27.0%	31.5%	39.5%	40.5%	63.6%
2026-09-21T00:20:09+00:00	27.0%	31.5%	39.5%	40.5%	63.6%
2026-09-21T01:05:22+00:00	27.0%	31.5%	39.5%	40.5%	63.6%
2026-09-21T01:50:27+00:00	41.4%	31.5%	39.5%	40.5%	63.6%
2026-09-21T02:35:34+00:00	41.4%	31.5%	39.5%	40.5%	63.6%
2026-09-21T03:20:39+00:00	41.4%	31.5%	39.5%	40.5%	63.6%
2026-09-21T04:06:00+00:00	41.4%	31.5%	39.5%	40.5%	63.6%
2026-09-21T04:51:06+00:00	41.4%	31.5%	39.5%	40.5%	50.0%
2026-09-21T05:36:15+00:00	41.4%	31.5%	39.5%	40.5%	50.0%
2026-09-21T06:21:21+00:00	41.4%	31.5%	39.5%	40.5%	50.0%
2026-09-21T07:06:29+00:00	41.4%	31.5%	39.5%	40.5%	50.0%
2026-09-21T07:51:34+00:00	51.5%	31.5%	39.5%	40.5%	50.0%
2026-09-21T08:36:40+00:00	51.5%	31.5%	39.5%	40.5%	50.0%
2026-09-21T09:21:45+00:00	51.5%	31.5%	39.5%	40.5%	50.0%
2026-09-21T10:06:49+00:00	51.5%	31.5%	39.5%	40.5%	50.0%
2026-09-21T10:51:58+00:00	51.5%	31.5%	39.5%	26.8%	50.0%
2026-09-21T11:37:49+00:00	51.5%	22.0%	39.5%	26.8%	50.0%
2026-09-21T12:23:00+00:00	51.5%	22.0%	39.5%	26.8%	50.0%
2026-09-21T13:08:05+00:00	51.5%	22.0%	39.5%	26.8%	50.0%
2026-09-21T13:53:10+00:00	55.2%	22.0%	39.5%	26.8%	50.0%
2026-09-21T14:40:16+00:00	55.2%	22.0%	39.5%	26.8%	50.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	55%	73.2°F	5.3°F	2026-09-21 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	73.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-21 02:00	Pending
ICON	50%	72.5°F	6.9°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	72.0°F	5.5°F	2026-09-21 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	40%	71.0°F	5.7°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	27%	68.4°F	6.6°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	22%	70.8°F	2.2°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260927-TMAX-GE73
Opened Sep 20 · 11:31 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 73°F · Sun Sep 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗