KPIT / Mon Sep 28 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST38%Sep 24 · 14:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

65%

47%

38%

21%

16%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 40.7¢Risks 40.65u

ICONNO 59.3¢Risks 59.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +59.35u · ICON −59.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	97.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	—	—	—	40.2%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	—	—	—	39.3%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	38.4%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	48.8%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	46.9%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	31.2%	—	—	42.2%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	48.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	29.4%	4.8%	48.0%	—	—	48.6%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	56.2%	—	69.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	39.6%	58.4%	68.9%	5.8%	—	50.0%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	60.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	12.4%	44.2%	70.9%	52.2%	—	47.8%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	63.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	35.8%	2.8%	52.3%	29.6%	—	37.2%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	46.9%	—	52.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	18.9%	64.8%	39.7%	—	42.1%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	1.3%	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	4.9%	65.5%	9.7%	—	29.3%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	7.5%	60.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	16.7%	9.7%	39.6%	2.9%	—	37.1%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	15.5%	13.0%	36.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	10.6%	9.4%	31.4%	—	25.9%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	7.0%	13.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	15.3%	2.3%	8.2%	19.0%	—	19.0%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	4.9%	17.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	2.4%	5.5%	2.5%	—	16.3%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	6.5%	1.2%	2.2%	—	—	15.0%
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	10.9%	1.1%	0.6%	3.3%	—	16.9%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	2.1%	6.0%	0.0%	—	10.7%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	0.7%	0.7%	14.7%	0.2%	11.0%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	2.9%	0.8%	5.8%	—	11.4%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	0.9%	1.3%	3.7%	8.5%	12.4%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	3.7%	2.2%	3.5%	—	7.2%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	3.7%	0.8%	1.6%	7.0%	0.4%	5.3%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	1.1%	0.1%	3.2%	—	5.4%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	1.1%	0.1%	1.9%	8.9%	4.4%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	2.9%	0.1%	1.7%	—	2.9%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.3%	0.0%	2.0%	6.1%	2.0%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.6%	0.0%	0.6%	—	0.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	65%	72.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-24 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	47%	70.2°F	4.6°F	2026-09-24 06:00	Pending
National Blend	45%	70.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	68.9°F	5.0°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	21%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending
ICON	16%	65.9°F	4.7°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260928-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 23 · 02:49 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 71°F · Mon Sep 28

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗