KPIT / Mon Sep 28 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST38%Sep 24 · 14:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

65%

47%

38%

21%

16%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 40.7¢Risks 40.65u

ICONNO 59.3¢Risks 59.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +59.35u · ICON −59.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-24T14:16:40+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-23T02:49:13+00:00	75.7%	42.4%	69.5%	62.4%	16.1%
2026-09-23T03:34:33+00:00	75.7%	42.4%	69.5%	62.4%	16.1%
2026-09-23T04:19:43+00:00	75.7%	42.4%	69.5%	62.4%	16.1%
2026-09-23T05:04:48+00:00	75.7%	42.4%	69.5%	51.2%	36.0%
2026-09-23T05:50:03+00:00	75.7%	42.4%	69.5%	51.2%	36.0%
2026-09-23T06:35:09+00:00	75.7%	42.4%	69.5%	51.2%	36.0%
2026-09-23T07:20:17+00:00	75.7%	42.4%	69.5%	51.2%	36.0%
2026-09-23T08:05:27+00:00	55.6%	42.4%	69.5%	61.5%	36.0%
2026-09-23T08:51:11+00:00	55.6%	42.4%	69.5%	61.5%	36.0%
2026-09-23T09:36:15+00:00	55.6%	42.4%	69.5%	61.5%	36.0%
2026-09-23T10:21:19+00:00	55.6%	42.4%	69.5%	61.5%	36.0%
2026-09-23T11:06:25+00:00	55.6%	46.5%	64.0%	61.5%	36.0%
2026-09-23T11:51:38+00:00	55.6%	46.5%	64.0%	61.5%	36.0%
2026-09-23T12:36:42+00:00	55.6%	46.5%	64.0%	61.5%	36.0%
2026-09-23T13:21:48+00:00	50.0%	46.5%	64.0%	61.5%	36.0%
2026-09-23T14:09:03+00:00	49.2%	46.5%	64.0%	61.5%	35.4%
2026-09-23T14:54:11+00:00	49.2%	19.7%	64.0%	61.5%	35.4%
2026-09-23T15:39:28+00:00	49.2%	19.7%	64.0%	61.5%	35.4%
2026-09-23T16:24:36+00:00	49.2%	19.7%	64.0%	61.5%	16.5%
2026-09-23T17:09:45+00:00	49.2%	19.7%	64.8%	61.5%	16.5%
2026-09-23T17:54:54+00:00	49.2%	19.7%	64.8%	61.5%	16.5%
2026-09-23T18:39:59+00:00	49.2%	19.7%	64.8%	61.5%	16.5%
2026-09-23T19:25:10+00:00	50.8%	19.7%	64.8%	27.4%	16.5%
2026-09-23T20:10:18+00:00	50.8%	19.7%	64.8%	27.4%	16.5%
2026-09-23T20:55:23+00:00	50.8%	19.7%	64.8%	27.4%	16.5%
2026-09-23T21:40:28+00:00	50.8%	19.7%	64.8%	27.4%	16.5%
2026-09-23T22:25:35+00:00	50.8%	19.7%	64.8%	27.4%	16.5%
2026-09-23T23:10:41+00:00	50.8%	19.7%	64.0%	27.4%	16.5%
2026-09-23T23:55:46+00:00	50.8%	19.7%	64.0%	27.4%	16.5%
2026-09-24T00:40:52+00:00	50.8%	19.7%	64.0%	27.4%	16.5%
2026-09-24T01:26:04+00:00	59.6%	19.7%	64.0%	27.4%	16.5%
2026-09-24T02:11:11+00:00	59.6%	19.7%	64.0%	27.4%	16.5%
2026-09-24T02:56:19+00:00	59.6%	19.7%	64.0%	27.4%	16.5%
2026-09-24T03:41:53+00:00	59.6%	19.7%	64.0%	27.4%	16.5%
2026-09-24T04:26:58+00:00	59.6%	19.7%	64.0%	27.4%	16.5%
2026-09-24T05:12:03+00:00	59.6%	19.7%	65.7%	27.4%	16.5%
2026-09-24T05:57:11+00:00	59.6%	19.7%	65.7%	27.4%	16.5%
2026-09-24T06:42:24+00:00	59.6%	19.7%	65.7%	27.4%	16.5%
2026-09-24T07:27:36+00:00	48.3%	19.7%	65.7%	37.5%	16.5%
2026-09-24T08:13:22+00:00	48.3%	19.7%	65.7%	37.5%	16.5%
2026-09-24T08:58:36+00:00	48.3%	19.7%	65.7%	37.5%	16.5%
2026-09-24T09:43:40+00:00	48.3%	19.7%	65.7%	37.5%	16.5%
2026-09-24T10:28:45+00:00	48.3%	19.7%	65.7%	37.5%	16.5%
2026-09-24T11:13:50+00:00	48.3%	21.0%	64.8%	37.5%	16.5%
2026-09-24T11:58:57+00:00	48.3%	21.0%	64.8%	37.5%	16.5%
2026-09-24T12:44:01+00:00	48.3%	21.0%	64.8%	37.5%	16.5%
2026-09-24T13:29:15+00:00	47.4%	21.0%	64.8%	37.5%	16.5%
2026-09-24T14:16:40+00:00	47.4%	21.0%	64.8%	37.5%	16.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	65%	72.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-24 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	47%	70.2°F	4.6°F	2026-09-24 06:00	Pending
National Blend	45%	70.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	68.9°F	5.0°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	21%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending
ICON	16%	65.9°F	4.7°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20260928-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 23 · 02:49 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 71°F · Mon Sep 28

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗